Avoiding being scammed in ICO “pump-and-dump” schemes
venturebeat.com
venturebeat.com
I'm saying that it's always better to get familiar with new technology at the earliest point possible. To "Completely ignore the world of coins" would be kind of stupid and shortsighted don't you think?
But seriously this is exactly what happened in the late 90's during the rise of the web. There is real value in Bitcoin, there is real value in blockchain technology. There probably isn't any value in PETCOIN or AOLCOIN if you catch my drift. Smart investors who can stomach risk can make a lot of money over the next few years before all the shit hits the fan. Gotta love irrational exuberance.
In the late 90s there were a lot of very premature IPOs and a lot of money raised for bad ideas, but very few of them were total cranks or scams. I could in fact buy pet food on pets.com-- it just wasn't a viable business and wasn't well executed. The CueCat was a horrible business idea but CueCats actually did exist and you could in fact use them. (I used to have one! Kept it for teh lulz.)
Most ICO projects are complete and utter vapor consisting of nothing more than a stock bootstrap web site and a "white paper" that could have been generated by a Markov chain model using crypto and decentralized systems buzzwords. A few have a bit of code online that doesn't work. Of those that have shipped most of them are unusable, and of those that are usable I am only aware of maybe one or two that are at all interesting. Of those none are very compelling and none are things I couldn't do without.
There are literally no hits in this space. It's all junk, and most of it is outright scams. I'd be surprised if a single current generation coin ever actually delivers real ROI.
It pains me to say it too. This stuff is very much in the "I want to believe" category for me. But I've gone through them and that's what I see. It's depressing.
We've discussed an ICO here at ZeroTier and I've consistently come up against it. There is so much fraud here I don't want to go near it even if there might be good use cases. A lot of capital is sloshing around but I have both ethical and pragmatic problems with participating in a system so absolutely rife with fraud. I also don't particularly want to deal with SEC investigations.
Cryptocurrency on the other hand is useful. We have used Bitcoin to pay overseas contributors for open source work and consulting. The function for which block chains have become most known is so far the most useful and real.
The only upside is this: I find it satisfying that the scammers are gaming the "serious math/CS papers must be written in TeX" heuristic by writing their buzzword salad white papers in LaTeX. I hate lazy prejudiced heuristics like that.
Even though many of the nineties startups lacked the skill or timing to execute it, the advantage of replacing catalogues or human agents already using computerised reservations systems with an always-available, easily-updated website was huge, obvious and real as was the size of the future online advertising market. So there was every reason to believe that some internet companies would eventually become huge. By contrast, many ICO startups boast no tangible advantage or difference over the existing congested and conventional markets they purport to serve except for a novel funding method which allows their investors to trade any oversight or traditional legal recourse against the company for a theoretically liquid market to dump the "coins" in if the founders don't even attempt to deliver...
Earlier in the year I began going through the list of alt-assets and ICOs. I appreciate how the lists of advisors (or whatever they are being called) are full of people with experience in completely irrelevant areas.
Cryptography is one of those areas where you really need to be good at what you do or your skills have a deeply negative value. To create some sort of cryptographic asset with a team devoid of cryptographers and people with deep software security experience is a joke.
If that does happen crypto will crash. The crash will bleed over into Bitcoin too because sheep.
In the long run it might be a good thing. Maybe ICOs will get re-invented as something more reputable. I know Naval Ravikant (AngelList) is involved in a project to create a reputable sort of ICO vehicle patterned after the SAFE and he has an excellent reputation. I feel bad for the people right now trying to do legitimate work in this space and having to compete with a bunch of obvious cranks and fakes.
Some don't even bother to do that. This is literally the white paper for one of the hottest cryptos out there right now :
This is the codebase :
https://github.com/neo-project
The current net value of the entire circulation is about 3.7 billion, all of which was pre-"mined" and 50% of which is reserved by the creators.
There almost seems to be an inverse relationship between reality and funds raised. Here's one of the very few real ones:
They got nowhere near the funding, and most of it was conventional:
It's one of the few coin-backed distributed things that seems like it might be useful to the point that I may actually try it, and I've heard it actually does work.
Guess that's passe in these quarters.
This goes back to my original point that there is value in cryptocurrency and the technology behind it. It's just going through a period of explosive interest and growth, which in turn is causing the technology to get better rapidly.
The multimillionaire investors are going to be made over the next 3 years. The next google could come out of an ICO in 10, it's just a matter of the market correcting itself once the hype wears off.
The sad thing is that this is actually very cool technology and I bet there are real use cases out there that could benefit from them. But the ones I have seen are not it. I wonder if Ethereum itself will also be punished when all these tokens come crashing down...
There would have to be a solid(likely with some sort of central authority) proof of stake crypto for inexpensive microtransaction models to work.
Of course the alternative is doing it off chain but that pretty much gets us back to trusting some sort of central authority.
You can easily see it in penny-stocks and/or OTC-stocks. The price stays flat, then peaks, then crashes to about the pre pump-and-dump price.
I haven't seen such a behaviour in any of the new coins. Does anyone have an example or link to a chart?
To get the noodle baking about the first part: The goal of every public offering is to make more money than what the stuff you're offering is worth to you. Of course it may have more value to other people for different reasons, but the basic idea is not to get the same value or less of what it's worth to you. So to some degree an ICO always plans to take more than it gives.
When there is no intrinsic value being gained, this means that the company is really just a shell game, moving money around. Think poker. People are voluntarily risking money, to play a game, to get someone else's money (and some slight entertainment.)
So, if a business markets itself as one that is creating value ("we do easy digital, global payments!"), but is really just moving money around ("buy our ICO, get in on the ground floor!")...
then buyer be aware :)
Don't buy stuff for the sole purpose of hoping for profit. Things you buy need to have intrinsic value. The least thing you have is a logical reason why someone else would buy it for more. And in that case early adopters of ICO-scams are doing it the smart(er) way. Because they buy coins for less than the offering price and can guess from marketing hype what they may get on offering day for it.
Buying something expressly for profit, but masquerading it as a business, that = Herbalife.
Now, some people actually do drink Herbalife shakes, but usually they are doing so as a rite-of-passage to some kind of "next level of distributorship."
craziness, really :)
However I don't agree with the good intention, bad intention part. In truth we all want to make the world better and we all want to gain from it. While there are few really predatory offers, many are just basic human selfishness+ignorance. It's the difference between taking someone's purse and finding that the cashier gave you too much change. The second part is not really evil, but it's very likely to happen. So you better count twice before handing out your money.
Nobody wants a domain specific currency. If I want to purchase services whether it's from a company or from some kind of decentralized amorphous protocol I want to make that purchase in fiat cash or some general purpose crypto cash like BTC or ETH. I do not want to convert cash into some domain specific currency. That's annoying and introduces complexity, breakage, and market inefficiency.
Regular crowd-funding mostly have rules about what you pre-buy. Regular IPOs have tight rules and regulation on how, when and to whom you may offer.
I fail to see how and why we should tolerate these ICOs scams these days. A lot of people will lose a lot of money.
I hereby certify that all of these ICOs are crap. The world doesn't need another highly frothy 'currency' with no underlying value, whose only useful properties are some famous dude (or some guy on YouTube) says it's cool and you can think you'll get in early like when you missed out on Bitcoin or whatever.
Not calling Morningstar scammers, but they also have millions in revenue...
To summarize the probably resulting discussion of this question: The profit is probably in doing ICOs and offering business opportunities on top of coins, not in mining the coins.
They are not, Dan bytemaster was around when Satoshis was active back then