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Comment by kkshin | Hacker News Reader

I don't think anyone disagrees that China will out pace the US in technology at some point within the next two generations. They will probably outpace the US in all business sectors. This has nothing to do with the failings of the American education system or ineptitude of our leadership. No matter what our policies, we are a natural disadvantage. China has more people. With more people comes more consumers, larger markets, and ultimately more innovators.

Ultimately though, this doesn't matter. As the world becomes more globalized it will matter less and less where companies physically exist. Global companies will still hire the best minds from wherever in the world they graduate from, and global companies/investment firms will still invest in the best of ideas.

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>I don't think anyone disagrees that China will out pace the US in technology at some point within the next two generations

I disagree. There is a barrier to go from manufacturing to innovating, and it's one that China is not going to find easy to break through. There is a political, cultural, and social infrastructure in America that China simply does not have.

Innovators are people who typically want to be free. They solve problems because they don't like being constrained. A country like America accommodates innovators very well: we allow people to express their political opinions openly, accept or even celebrate people's eccentricities, and promote almost a true meritocracy. I don't see China reaching that level in two generations.

I think they're already starting to break through that barrier. Look at companies such as Huawei, TCL, Lenovo, and Haier who are competing at the global stage with many US tech firms. If you are limiting "technology" to what most of us do around here (software) then I might be able to concede the argument, but that is an incredibly narrow view.

edit On innovators: I agree in the current climate the environment in the US is more conducive to raising people with the entrepeneural spirit, however China is rapidly changing. This is the time when the first batch of college grads have parents who had white collar jobs. They aspire to be more than their parents, and this desire/greed/ambition will inspire a new generation of business men and engineers. Their children will be even more so.

> China has more people.

Wrong. More people, more problems, the harder control will be. Think of a big company, like Microsoft.

I think the article is crap, written by someone with degrees, who value degrees and the article is based on the current education system.

> 1. China's leadership understands engineering

Hahaha. We need leaders and not Engineers, sure they need a minimum knowledge, but they don't need doctorate in Physics.

> 2. China's leadership wants to out-innovate the U.S.

That's my dream too and the dream of France, England and the whole world.

> 3. China's science and technical talent pool is vast

Again, he relies on the educational system. Who said China has a quality educational system and that the 350K engineers know really what they should know.

The US is, by and large, successful because we have the largest market in the world (forgetting for a moment the effects of WWII). We continue to be a success because we have a huge population of affluent people who can spend enormous amounts of money on consumer goods. The Chinese middle class is already larger than the entirety of the US population* and will continue to rise as the country increasingly becomes a first-world country.

There are of course issues with managing such a large population, but the chance of any sort of collapse is the figment, and hope, of our pride and does not reflect the realities of the situation.

* - Income of middle class in the US is higher, but cost of living is also substantially less in China.

I agree with your globalization assessment, but disagree that america is at a natural disadvantage agaisnt china for the reasons you stated.

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