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Comment by wbracken | Hacker News Reader

Tangentially in the business. Two recent stories told to me:

1) Saw at Manheim Auto Auction (one of the largest) 300 Nissan Leafs run through the auction line in one afternoon ahead of some of our cars. Drop in "value" of leafs went down 10%+ in one day. All were recently off lease. 2) For similar reason, Santander is holding 4000+ cars on auction lots "waiting for pricing to stabilize". Reality is, when they run those cars through the auction, they will have to book the full losses. Say they anticipated 20% repossession rate and that they would get 80% on the dollar when auctioned on those losses. When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed.

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Leaf is a special case because of the battery degradation issues. 100k miles on a Leaf is basically end of life (unless you buy the $5k battery replacement). That being said, you can pick one up in California for $5k in perfect condition with <50k miles and ~75% of battery life remaining right now. When you factor in zero cost of maintenance and zero cost for fuel over a lifetime of 2-3 years, and HOV access, it's the single most perfectly designed commuter car to ever exist IMO. I just bought one last month and it's the best car I've ever owned. Having a bunch of free chargers nearby means my total monthly cost to commute ~20 miles a day is a $75 insurance payment.

Definitely a niche thing for heavy urban areas that have the charging infrastructure though. I can't imagine owning one in the Midwest.

Any advice on how to make sure you're getting a good one, or where to get one? We considered Leafs several years ago, but the range wasn't quite good enough for our needs.

Since then, our needs have decreased and range has increased a bit. Would love to trade in one of our 25 mpg vehicles for a Leaf. Plenty of chargers around Palo Alto, including at work!

Make sure the battery has at least 8 bars left. There's two gauges on the dash: current charge and battery capacity. Capacity is the skinnier one on the right [0]. If you find one still within the warranty window below 8 bars, Nissan will even replace the battery free [1]. Also make sure you get one with a quick charge port, it's worth every penny. Other than that you really can't go wrong.

http://www.plugincars.com/sites/default/files/leaf-dash-bars... [0]

https://www.nissanusa.com/electric-cars/leaf/charging-range/... [1]

Not an owner, but I think those two points work against each other a bit. How much, I'm not sure, but slower charging does preserve capacity. If you have no plans for long trips where you need to charge during a meal, and will always be charging overnight or while at work, batteries that haven't had to deal with faster charging could be better.

You're not wrong however all of the studies and research out there shows the degradation is hundreds or tenths of a percentage point. In other words it's insignificant.

There's guides online for this.

Things I remember off the top of my head:

* there's generations of Leafs, and later ones are better in terms of battery management

* there's a device you can buy and an iPhone app to get better, in-depth info from the battery on a car you intend to purchase

* It was high temperatures that were the achilles heel for early Leaf's so watch out if you live somewhere like Pheonix or if you suspect the car came from somewhere similar

* make sure to check out all the various rebates available for new leafs (from state, federal and utility companies, and group buy offers) to make a fair comparison with a used model.

75% battery life on a car that has a 90 mile range? Talk about range anxiety! I'm not sure who looks at those cars, but they sure don't use cars like I do.

I don't even commute and I can't imagine the stress of driving something like that.

When the 2016 ones go off lease it should help a little: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf#2016_model_year

In the Bay Area it's never really an issue because of quick charging. 30 minutes gets you an 80% charge from 0. When you realize that point-to-point the longest possible drive around here is ~40 miles, and there is guaranteed to be a quick charger within a few miles of your destination, it changes things. I admit it's a total mindset shift from driving an ICE but I love it.

> When you realize that point-to-point the longest possible drive around here is ~40 miles

o_O

It would be fine for my wife, she drives 30 miles every day, either commuting or shopping.

$75 per month for insurance? You gotta get Metromile. My payment is usually under $25 and hasn't ever gone above $30.

5k, how? I don't see any less than 8k on autotrader.

I've heard stories over the years of "plausibly desirable car X is selling for around price $Y!" - yet when I look around a bit, prices are always much higher.

unlisted private party sale; auction purchase; craigslist opportunistic purchase; etc

auto trader is typically dealer sales and paid-listing private party. the best deals won't be found there.

My parents just bought a new model (2016, one of the last ones) and it's surprisingly practical.

> When they run them through now and get 50% on the dollar, their securitization pools will be creamed.

Amazing that mark-to-market is still not restored 10 years after its suspension.

That's not the full story.

It's that the trading market is sufficiently thin that even a few hundred units of freshly off-lease vehicles will crash the price.

David Gerard makes a similar point of Bitcoin in Attach of the 50 Foot Blockhain -- that "market capitalisation" of crytpocurrencies is complete nonsense, due to market thinness. Rather, you want to look at total transaction volume. A large player can move the market significantly on a very small number of trades.

Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume. Punch a large hole in something, and it falls rapidly. Squeeze it to a small point, and you can keep it quite high, but on very small total quantity.

> Price, it turns out, is far more like pressure than volume.

Or voltage, as we sorta worked out on G+ :-)

Right. Which is a pressure-analogue.

The overseas markets can't seem to get enough of the Leafs. I've seen trucks full of Leafs delivered for export to places such as Ukraine.

Saw zero leafs during my week in London. Same with a week in Glasgow. Boat loads of prius’ though.

There are quite a few round here (rural Suffolk, UK)

I've seen a few in London, Nissan don't seem to market them very hard in the UK.

The UK is the third biggest market for Leafs, 20,000 sold.

http://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/pressreleas...

As well as private owners, both places have a car club using them too [1] - I guess it’s possible the low value makes them more attractive for that use.

http://www.co-wheels.org.uk/electric_vehicles

I've seen a few around Cambridge, very noticeable as a cycling since they sound so different.

I can confirm that used Leafs from the USA are very popular here in Kyiv. They sell for something around 18000 USD, are about three years old, and are said to have freshly replaced batteries (which may or may not be true).

I mean does this really shock anyone? There are like no less than 20 used lots in my city alone (which is hardly a metro hub) all of which have probably at least a hundred used cars on the lot. And that's JUST the used dealership market, not even counting the new dealers, the private sellers, the rental places getting rid of cars, or anybody else I'm not thinking of.

There are actual quantifiable fuckloads of cars in the states. It's really a wonder there's enough customers to feed this industry at all, ability to pay the financing notwithstanding.

In 2012 there were actually less cars per capita in the US than many parts of Europe including Italy. The difference is that in the US, auto financing is ridiculously easy for purchase and lease, combined with the general financial irresponsibility of the population, you see a lot of new and expensive cars driven by people with below average incomes and they return the lease and get a new car every few years whereas in other countries people drive their cars into the ground.

And now there is Harvey...

Man I've been looking for a decently priced leaf for a long time. I'd like to attend an auction like this in the Bay Area.

It may be this location but Craigslist is pretty slim pickings.

I think Manheim is a wholesale auction, unfortunately

Sounds like we have a solution: open up the auction for individual buyers to keep auction prices up.

Opening up the auction to private individuals doesn't bring more buyers, as the brokers are just middlemen -- all the cars they buy get passed on to end customers in a matter of weeks. It may bring more money, if people are willing to pay more to disintermediate the brokers.

However, this adds a lot of headache and risk for the auction operator - tons of uneducated customers who won't be able to pay, try to back out of bids, get pissed when the car has defects (auctions are typically as-is affairs), crowd the lot, etc.

However - if you see a car you want coming up, try asking a local broker to buy it for you for a flat fee, a few hundred bucks over the closing price. It's a guaranteed sale for them with no hassle ...

This is what I do. Friend of a friend is a dealer. He's at the auctions every other day. I just put in an order with him and he'll call me when he finds something good. I trust him. Having had a bad deal yet. Charges $400.

Manheim policy may vary across the world, but here in the UK they're open to private buyers on most lots.

My nearest auction house is Saltash, Plymouth and twice/weekly sales and upwards of 200 vehicles go through the books. It's quite something to see a car brought to the line, bid on and sold in 2 minutes.

Private buyers pay a larger commission per sale compared to bulk buyers, but hammer price is the same.

There's a twice-yearly plate change in the UK also, so in the coming weeks (from Sep 1) there will be a glut of used cars traded as part exchange for new vehicles.

The local CarMax may have auctions for the local "Mom & Pop" dealers - you won't be able to bid, but if you talked to a registered bidder ahead of time and told them what you are willing to pay (in cash) for a Leaf that day, they may bid on one for you. Point out that they won't have any lot insurance fees on it, since you'll be taking delivery immediately.

Yes that works pretty well. My wife wanted a specific model of used car several years ago so we told our regular mechanic (who has a dealer license) to find one in good condition at the local auction and bid up to a certain price. It was worth paying him for his time to attend the auction and filter out the cars with problems.

There are pretty massive subsidies on new Leafs now. $10k reduction by dealers as well as $7500 federal tax rebate (and potentially CA rebate if you are low income).

Doesn't the tax credit only work on new leafs?

In CO you could get a Leaf for $8K with tax credits, at least until the end of June this year. There were tons of brand new ones on eBay going for ~$10K when I checked.

$8k? How?

Our local electric utility ran a $10k discount on the new high end models recently and I thought that was a bargain.

San Diego has them at 1/3rd of list price once you take into account state, federal and utility incentives:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-09/bmw-nissa...

So we don't actually get a free market so that the banks can maximize their profit.

this and the below comments just show that cars are, in general, ridiculously overpriced.

Instead of "universal basic income" - we should have "free cars for every individual" -- Look at how THAT would affect autonomous driverless cars!!!

The incentives there are wildly misplaced.

With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want.

With "Universal Cars" you get a car. If you already had one, you probably need to sell one or the other. But now everyone has a car, so the resale value crashes to nearly scrap. If you keep it, you need to pay for insurance, maintenance, and actual usage, which may or may not be a net positive.

Let's suppose you don't already have a car. Why not? If you live in a city, you may not have a need for a car. Selling it won't help much. Parking may be impossible or too expensive. Perhaps you cannot drive a car. This car is going to be useless to you.

On the upside, it bolsters the car manufacturing industry. On the other hand, many mechanics will go out of business because it will be cheaper to get a different car than fix the one you have.

On the gripping hand, expect gigantic traffic jams, rising fuel prices, and soaring pollution levels.

"With UBI, you get money. You can spend it on whatever you need or want"

As long as you have a slave class doing the producing who are forced to take your money. Otherwise you just get inflation because you haven't added anything to the supply of production side.

If your mental model is based on a single self-sufficient town plus outlying farms that does no trading and never improves their technology, I can see how you would come to that conclusion.

But that's not the world we live in.

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