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Comment by adventured | Hacker News Reader

No, that's about right. Take some time and go through autotrader.com. $15k isn't unusual for a used mid-value sedan with ~25,000 to ~65,000 miles. For example, look up Hyundai Sonatas, 2013, with that mile load, you'll see prices around $14,000 to $18,000.

Or check out Toyota Camrys, 2012 model year. You'll typically pay around $14,000 to $16,000 to get into one with 40,000 to 60,000 miles. So that's a 5+ year old car, a mid-value sedan, with a fair bit of mileage.

The average new car price is around $32,000.

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I don't disagree that you can pay $15K for a used car, I doubt that the average price of a used car is $15K.

The average price of the first 30 used cars for sale by owner on the Seattle craigslist is $5,896: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/cto

Average price of the first 30 by dealer however, is $21,567: https://seattle.craigslist.org/search/ctd But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Why is it so dumb to buy a used car off the lot?

I bought an Audi off lease last year. It's still under warranty, free maintenance (until 80k km), low mileage (37k km), fully loaded with options, and I saved $20k vs a new one.

> Why is it so dumb to buy a used car off the lot?

It's not. The parent doesn't appear to understand the used car market in the US. Most people are not buying their used cars for $6,000 off of craigslist, that's a good way to end up with a pile of junk. It's a bad idea to buy a mid-value or higher used car outside the CPO or remaining original warranty programs if you can help it, ideally from a dealer.

Not my experience at all. Do a little research on which brands and models are reliable. Find a nicely maintained example of one of those offered by a private seller. It's going to be way cheaper than a dealer in my experience.

Nobody buys a new car and sells it two years later with low mileage. That would be a very unusual thing to do (and tax-disadvantageous where I live).

They lease it and then ownership ends up with some dealer at the end of the lease.

Most used car dealers don't give you a warranty: https://seattle.craigslist.org/skc/ctd/d/2015-bmw-x5-35i-awd... Note the conspicious absence of the word "warranty" on this listing. If the car falls apart as you drive off the lot, you're out $35K.

CPO cars have a warranty, which sharply limits your downside risk. Buying a used car from a manufacturer is a much better deal than buying it from a third party.

Usually the factory warranty transfers on sale if the car is new enough. https://www.autotrader.com/car-tips/buying-a-car-is-the-fact...

Generally not as nice as CPO, but it's something.

"If the car falls apart as you drive off the lot, you're out $35K."

Obviously, cars rarely fall apart as you drive them off the lot. Yes, there could be unexpected expensive repairs. But there's basically no realistic scenario in which you're going to be out the entire $35k.

I understand that you're exaggerating for effect, but it's this kind of thinking that convinces people to purchase expensive warranties that aren't (statistically) worth the price.

The manufacturer warranty has a mileage limit which at least in my case was 80k km (less than 60k miles); that's probably why it's missing from the listing you linked to.

> But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Tens of millions of people. It depends entirely on what you're buying. For example if you want to buy a certified pre-owned vehicle, you're frequently going to buy it off the lot from a dealership. The CPO programs from the major manufacturers are typically excellent. If you're buying a nice used car, with relatively low miles & a recent model year, it's more often dumb to go any other way than a reputable dealer + CPO.

> But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Me, because it came with a 7 year warranty. The price was good and the dealer offers a shuttle to and from my work (or my home) when it is in for maintenance.

Isn't looking at Craigslist selection bias around people looking to buy/sell cheaper cars without warranties?

If I had a used car worth 20K still in a maintenance window I wouldn't sell it on Craigslist. Autotrader if I wanted to private-party to max my upside, dealer if I was lazy.

Very much selection bias. Even if we add auto shopper, and the like you won't get most of the expensive cars as they are not advertised.

Your 20k used car is 2-3 years old and coming off lease, or the same car as a trade in. The dealer will put it on the lot with a "just off trade" sticker and sell it. It might or might not go on Craigslist. (if it is listed the ad finishes with "and many more cars like this so some in and see") If the dealer gets too many in on trade the rest go to an auto auction.

Remember, the dealer knows all the numbers that the leaser isn't told. The company who backed the lease 2-3 years ago did their best to make sure that when the car was turned in the dealer would look at the remaining value and think "profit if I buy that and sell it". The dealer is going to pay the lease company for the rest of the value of the car. If the dealer decides there isn't enough money in selling it the lease company has to send the car to an auto auction and see what price they can get. (I suspect that a lot more goes on in these cases but I don't know what)

Some warranty/return possibility? A friend has just gone through two returns at CarMax.

> But who would be dumb enough to buy a used car from a lot?

Someone who needs a loan? I've bought/sold several cars on Craigslist, and it's always all-cash. Perhaps it's possible to get a loan from a bank to buy a car off CL, but it's easier to do so at a dealership.

You will get a much better idea of what real used cars cost when you look at the manheim numbers. Going to a retail website like Autotrader or cars is going to add a few grand to the price at least. Manheim is what the dealers pay at auction. True used car prices.

Each of those cars is being resold for the first time, most likely. How many times is a car sold in its lifetime? Eventually it's sold to a scrap dealer for $500, and I'd bet that transaction is not included in the 15k average.

In any case, anyone considering a new car and concerned about depreciation should consider leasing instead. That way you only pay the depreciation (which you'd pay anyway) and after 3 years you have the option of buying it as a used car for the remaining cost or moving on to a new car with no hassle trying to sell it.

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