Millennials' preferences are killing dozens of industries
businessinsider.com
businessinsider.com
It is easy to say to just get a job when one is young and lucky to live in prosperous regions. Outside those criterias one can spend years trying to get something, even just a couple of hours a week.
But that doesn't mean I believe in work for the sake of work.
It's not fun trying to sell stuff to people without good stable jobs (or even worse, without any jobs), trust me.
And if you can't sell it you're not gonna do it at all, unless you can start with the high-end version, Tesla-style. Which doesn't work for all things, or tends to not work so well if you're not Elon Musk...
The way the economy is interconnected is so fragile that it really scares me.
Economy is really a scary game especially in the age of behemoths and we do not really know how to deal with the wealth inequality. An entire nations might find themselves in a position of not being able to compete with large international conglomerates. Smaller nations are less likely to have more than 1 or 2 large corps of their own and what happens if 1 collapses / gets out-competed / bought by the competitors. We have already seen what had happened in Finland with Nokia. Sure the situation is not that bad at first. Finland is still one of the richest nations. But it hit them really hard. Their economy is "stagnating" and the unemployment rate increased.
I concur -- as a young, unemployed finn from a region that has scored among the nation's worst places w.r.t. youth unemployment and unemployment in general.
But it's not just Nokia. That might have made a big dent on the economy as a whole but at the same time it shouldn't cause other companies in other industries to struggle (which has happened).
Even as they go down, we can't fixate on jobs for the sake of jobs. Sure we could be shoveling sand from pit A to pit B, but that isn't going to help us in the global economy, even if it had some local effects.
...wait, WHAT?! so you'd imply that bailouts are instead for industries "dying because someone invented a better and cheaper way to meet demands"? so kinda like "let's use bailouts to discourage innovation instead?!" wtf.
Not that I like the "saving dying industries" idea much, but if there's any way it would make sense to apply it, it would be to pump-up/resurrect demand for things for which people may have temporarily lost taste for due to a recession, but now the recession is over, things are back up, so it's a good idea to accelerate growth by encouraging people to consume more of the expensive stuff they lost taste for!
(Though some kind of Universal Basic Income would be the most sensitive way to increase consumption imho: cover the needs of the poor a bit, and also give more to those who already have more than enough so they can burn the extra cash and accelerate economic life...)
P.S. Oh, and one of the lessons that millenials should be thought imho, would be that, paradoxical as it may seem, on the collective level, by spending less you're making yourselves poorer! Of course, the "on a collective level" is the part most people fail to grok...
Specially here where without a whole set of Zeugnis we are apparently unable to do a certain tasks.
Still, the industry itself does not need to be saved just for the sake of saving the industry. In that particular interview one of the key points was the automotive industry, with the diesel scandal. If millenials don't want to buy these cars, maybe sell electric cars and invest into infrastructure projects, or invest more into car sharing (which they already do with DriveNow etc). All better than just using public funds to keep producing the same old cars, in this example.
Being priced completely out of the market is another way to say that, given the housing market in the UK.
A lack of guaranteed long-term disposable income explains most of the others; diamonds, annual gym membership contracts.
Housing costs a fortune for anything move in ready in any city/town that is desirable and I'm looking in the Southeast which would have been traditionally pretty cheap.
- Home-ownership is a giant pain and often a poor financial choice
- The diamond industry is corrupt, filled with human misery, and has artificially inflated prices
- Why pay for a gym when I can go hiking, walking, do yoga, and all the other exercises I like on my own for free?
Yeah, this probably doesn't get discussed enough. I've had my house for a little under a year, and it's required a new roof, a gas stove for a finished basement that turned out to be severely under-heated, problems with electrical wiring, and a few little odds and ends that weren't up to code, which I had to fix to get home owners insurance.
I'm saving a bundle when you only consider the difference between my old rent and my new mortgage, but home ownership comes with many incidental one-off costs.
Live in a cold region in a home built before natural gas was piped to your region? Heating suddenly fails in February? That $95 dollar proprietary, mechanical zone-controller from Honeywell is going to cost you $120 after markup and another $600 in labor. That heating tech also saw some "green death" on that copper, so you're going to have to call a plumber.
I'm fine with that but I went through vetting three heating techs before I found one that one which knew his industry well enough to answer my fairly baseline questions.[0] Eventually the guy I settled with explained the mechanical properties of both zone-control unit designs, and why one brand is more popular in the region[2]. He then mentioned what he observed as the more reliable Taco lines "always go with the gold series controllers, the green ones are poorly constructed especially if not installed properly".
All in all, I probably spent ~20 hours on top of the labor. In my NYC co-op, all of that would have been dealt with and paid with the co-op fees (which are more than reasonable). On the flipside, I'm perfectly fine with the home maintenance issues-- but it's ultimately the vetting process for a well informed[3] tradesman that takes the bulk of the time[4].
--
[0] Generally, I get on some forum with trade masters[1] I found the answers to after about half an hour of researching on a master plumber forum [1] (i.e., "so how often do these units fail? How does the Tacos compare to the Honeywells?").
[1] For EE, the EEVblog is usually second to none. Need a copy of the firmware for a 1984 HP sig-an? Some dude will have it. Other trades have similar sites- Hvac-talk in this case, absolutely high quality discourse. The great thing is that most of the time these guys will have in their vBulletin signatures their qualifications like "Master Certified ..., 1984 ". Similarly, practicalmachinist is great for certain things. Contractor-talk IIRC was very helpful as well.
[2] It turns out Honeywell is out of Rhode Island so there was some local brand loyality developed out of buying local + the sales reps hit western MA pretty hard.
[3] I.e., this 55 year old chap informed me that you apparently want to have the unit head pointing up and positioned vertically and mounted in-line with horizontal (not vertical) piping. This mistake is fairly common apparently and can lead to significant issues down the line. So while I paid more for his labor, his industrial knowledge was effective "preventative maintenance".
[4] If you don't want to/don't have the time to perform due diligence, having a friend who is informed enough to vet the quality of work with you is worth it. A buddy of mine is a contractor who knows all of the corner that are often cut, the indicators of quality workmanship, etc.
Sorry, every time people talk about how "hard" home ownership is all I hear is "being well-off is super hard, trust me you don't want money it only causes more problems. Let me shoulder your burden by skimming money off your paycheck so you don't have to deal with pesky things like wealth."
Businesses serve consumers - not the other way around. Perhaps if businesses realized this, they wouldn't be getting "killed."
"Did Millennials kill fashion?" one of those headlines reads.
No, I've seen what y'all did in the 80's and 90's. If Millennials killed fashion, it was a merciful death after that.
Lazy Great Generation Wants To Ride In Cars Instead of Time-Tested Horse and Buggy!
Drug-Addled Baby Boomers Spend All Their Time Idiotically Punching Numbers Into Fax Machines Rather than Learning Moorse Code Like They Should Be!
Ditching 24 hour gyms where you can go whenever you feel like in exchange for booking classes is "spontaneous"???
Signing up for a Gym is a major financial commitment.
Hardly a major financial commitment.
Not to mention the number of breweries has grown from 2,751 in 2012, which was a record then, to 4,144 in the beginning of 2016.
>Instead, younger consumers are turning to convenient options with minimal cleanup that can be eaten on the go, from yogurt to fast-food breakfast sandwiches.
Four entries down is:
>Yogurt — especially light yogurt
These industries are "dying" (or more accurately, declining) simply because they're failing to adapt to the changing nature of demand.
The 'Millennials don't like breasts' angle is a new take. I'd figured that one was a constant.
So why present it in such a negative view?
And not one mention to the dozens of industries Millennials created or helped take off.
Of course, like most such articles, this is really less about millennials' preferences than it is about our economic situation. For whatever reason, a lot of people seem to think that inflation ended in the 1970s and that we aren't all running out and buying houses because we lack an "ownership culture" or whatever.
I'm gen-X and would prefer to go out to dinner to a place with awesome food rather than a meh meal at a chain restaurant where they might just be microwaving everything that isn't grilled or fried.
Maybe because of the recession its more of a culture shift away from feeding the greed of corporate america?
Maybe people, of all ages, are just more aware of the details on things like handbags that are overpriced, overpriced bar food at Hooters, etc.
Maybe if we as a whole are more educated consumers, we consume less?
It is like with car sales: every time gas prices go up, people start buying Priuses, etc. But the minute gas prices come down, SUVs (the bigger, the better) are all the rage again.
The article text seemed the same -- just local photography.
The way they write these articles I thought these companies were as old as Macys (1858) or Sears (1893).
So what are the new restaurants that young people are patronizing? Take out places?
And what are the experiences? Travel? Concerts? Movies?
Went to hooters. There was too much clothing. Food was overpriced by bar food standards. If I want to see tits I'll go to a strip club. If I want beer and food I'll go to a bar. The Unix design philosophy isn't just for software.
Some people can enjoy the female figure just fine without advanced states of undress. But I would prefer more diversity in outfits, more along the lines of cosplay restaurants. The standard hooters uniform does nothing for me.
I have mixed feeling about the "Unix design philosophy" in software. And I'll sure as hell fight to not let it invade other aspects of life!
I happen to like "expert generalist" software and tools, and just as much I like "expert generalist" people.
I can't wait to see the reversal of the "worse is better" and "efficiency first" philosophies... even if this will likely coincide with the brink of technological singularity and the extinction of bio-humans, I hope I'll see the short as it may be age when we use technology to engineer plenty, richness, artfulness and hedonistic excess in all areas of life instead of the current artificially synthetized scarcity in all things for the purposes of "efficiency" and "accelerating growth".
People are being denied the possibility of having money. Therefore a lot of luxuries (or perceived luxuries) are disappearing. Businesses should stop feigning surprise about it, and start handing out money to their workers.
Millenials also have the benefit of being in a world where information is more available, so it's more difficult to scam them or trick them into consuming things with nasty side effects.
Let's see what's in the list proposed by the article:
1) Casual dining: perceived luxury. Homemade food is cheaper (probably healthier as well).
2) Beer: harmful to health. People are now more likely to be aware of this, so a reduction in consumption is to be expected.
3) Napkins: probably, perceived luxury. There are better, cheaper alternatives.
4) Breastaurants: preceived luxury. Another factor here is that the younger generations are likelier to find these demeaning to women. I know I wouldn't ever go to one of these.
5) Cereal: this is an interesting case. My money is on two causes: one is that they are probably perceived to be harmful to health (most are more sugary than it seems at first glance), another one is that people are changing their breakfast habits because of time restrictions. Because yes, millenials aren't just money-poor; employed millenials are time-poor too.
6) Golf: obviously a luxury.
7) Motorcycles: possibly a luxury too. If you run the numbers (as I have, but your results will depend on your location) you will probably found that public transport+Uber or equivalent is cheaper than having your own vehicle. In the case of Harley-Davidson mentioned in the article, they are definitely a luxury.
8) Homeownership: definitely a luxury; rent, shared homes or simply staying with your parents is just cheaper. Also, homeownership ties you into a given locations, yet the job market is likely to requiere people to move. Therefore homeownership is not a smart move for a lot of people.
9) Yogurt: not sure about this, probably it's being perceived as harmful. However not every yogurt is packed with sugar; I wonder if healthier brands are faring better than not so healthy ones.
10) Bars of soap: probably perceived as a luxury as well. The article mentions health concerns, whicih might be valid.
11) Diamonds: this is not even a luxury. It's, and always has been, a racket based on very effective propaganda. Congratulations to millenials for finally starting to end the farce.
12) Fabric softener: luxury.
13) Banks: well, you need to have money to use them, so don't expect millenials to use banks all the time. Also some usual banking practices are really shady and millenials want to avoid them.
14) Department stores: probably perceived as a luxury.
15) Designed handbags: obvious luxury.
16) Gyms: this is another interesting one; I would have bet that people are consuming it more than 20 years ago. I guess that memberships are just too expensive and people just go for a jog in the park. So, another luxury.
17) Home-improvement stores: well, millenials don't usually own their houses and they are not going to spend their already meagers pool of time and money into improving another person's house.
18) Football: I can't say much about this, because I'm not from the US. The article mentions a decrease in cable TV, which is obviously a luxury. I suspect that there is a greater cultural trend here and people are just less interested in sport because there are so many more options to spend free time, and so much less of that free time.
19) Oil: this is a matter of political conscientiousness, so it falls under the "perceived harmful" category.
After this wall of text, my conclusion is: yep, millenials are doing what they are incentivized for. No real surprise here.
Get over it.
...Murderers! Industry murderers!
- Applebees: DEAD. "Low-quality restaurant sees declining sales." Color me shocked. Suffice to say, I haven't set foot in an Applebees / Chilis / etc. in years. I was given a gift certificate a couple years ago, and used it at their sister restaurant On The Border for margaritas only.
- Beer: ALIVE. I'm surprised here, given literally all my friends love microbrews. I have a case of Starr Hill in my fridge right now. Is this looking at "Big Beer" and ignoring craft breweries? They also mention that "younger consumers prefer wine and spirits to beer", but use Constellation Brands as an example. Other than Corona / Modelo, Constellation is primarily wine (Black Box, Estancia, Robert Mondavi, Toasted Head, Woodbridge).
- Napkins: DEAD. Just a pain. Drives my mom nuts. That said, I do have linen napkins for nice occasions.
- Hooters: DEAD. Full of creepy old men who wish it was still the 80s.
- Cereal: ALIVE. My wife, in particular, eats cereal almost every morning.
- Golf: ALIVE. I enjoy golf. I don't get out to play as much as I'd like, and when I do, it's usually 9 holes. A full 18 just takes too long.
- Motorcycles: ALIVE. I used to ride a 1,000cc Aprilia Tuono R, but sold it when I had my first kid. I miss it. Most of my motorcycle-riding friends are on the same trajectory, but that has nothing to do with generation.
- Homeownership: ALIVE. Just bought my second house. 50% of my friends own.
- Yogurt: ALIVE. Confused here, too, as they turn around and mention that Greek yogurt is popular. Anyway, yogurt (Greek) for lunch today.
- Bars of Soap: ALIVE. I like Caress.
- Diamonds: ALIVE. I have bought my wife a few. Just so damn expensive, and synthetic stones have reached par in quality.
- Fabric Softener: DEAD. According to Procter & Gamble's head of global fabric care, millennials "don't even know what the product is for." I don't know what the product is for.
- Banks: ALIVE. Though what they really mean is: physical bank branches. In which case: DEAD. I haven't visited a physical bank in years. Schwab is great. My wife recently opened a business credit card at BB&T, and they told her she had to come in person to change her address. She is considering cancelling her account.
- Department Stores: DEAD. Sears and Macys are ghost towns. Norstrom does better. I feel like the quality is generally lower-end, and I can get a cheaper price online for the good stuff.
- Designer Handbags: ALIVE. Most of the millennial women I know have at least one "nice" bag. Michael Kors and Kate Spade are kind of "young" or entry-level. Tory Burch does well, along with stalwarts like Louis Vuitton and upstarts like Shinola.
- Gyms: ALIVE. I belong to a "big-box" gym. I like all the different classes I can take, or that there are other facilities available.
- Home Depot: ALIVE and I am singlehandedly keeping them afloat. I guess this aligns with the "homeownership" bucket, but renters need stuff, too. I went to Home Depot twice this weekend.
- Football: ALIVE. I can't wait for the fall, NCAA, and fantasy football. We did ditch cable this year, and that definitely has an impact. Football needs to catch up to viewer trends. Oddly enough, they miss the biggest existential threat to football: violence and brain injury.
- Oil: ALIVE. What? Sure, electric cars and bicycle usage are going to cut into gasoline sales, but this is just silly.