Comment by nnutter | Hacker News Reader

Comment by nnutter | Hacker News Reader

Something along the lines of, "Choice only matters if your choice is one of the choices," applies. Apple wasn't offering him his choice so he bought an Android. Yet he still acknowledges that the iPhone 4 may be a better phone.

His four main points are: openness, momentum, cloud, and capability. Android is definitely more open than iOS but Android's power depends on non-open software/services (Google). Android definitely has momentum but at their current rate it will still take years to match the iPhone's share of the market. Also, the Android app economy appears to be much weaker due to a cultural issue (rather than critical-mass issue). Cloud is a bit misleading as you can integrate Google's services with an iPhone almost as well as Android and iOS/MobileMe probably matches Android/Google albeit with a increase in cost and perhaps privacy. Capability is balanced by lack of usability.

I still think people are excusing flaws in Android due to frustration with Apple, hoping for "open" to win, etc.

I recently tried to switch to the Nokia N900 (Maemo OS, soon MeeGo OS) but found its capability did not balance its lack of usability.

>His four main points are: openness...

Actually, openness is not one of his points. He mentions it in passing only.

>Android definitely has momentum but at their current rate it will still take years to match the iPhone's share of the market.

From February to May of this year, Android went from 9% to 13% of the market. In that same time, the iPhone went from 25.4% to 24.4%. At that rate, it will take about six months for Android to match the iPhone. Google is seeing almost 5 million activations a month, and growing exponentially.

The big difference of course is that apple actually makes money and not only on the phone, but their app store.

Marketshare matters little in this context, what matters is how good a business it is for you.

And in that respect android is a shitty business as it,s not even close to opening up the revenue stream of advertising which is the real reason google is even in the phone business.

This is why statistics are always dangerous in the hands of, well, anyone :)

Don't forget that Feb-May is the maximum time from a new iPhone release. This quarter saw an actual release so I wouldn't be surprised to see them snatch back the 1%. More importantly you can't extrapolate from just the one quarters figures :) Android sales could trail off or people could end up sending them back in high numbers after a few months etc.

Also, Android is offered on a wider array of phones; so it is reasonable that as it gains popularity it will enroach into the smartphone market. It will be interesting to see this quarters figures; I suspect Android will grow but so will Apple.

As pointed out, the more important metric is profitability; and currently Apple have that in bucket loads.

(not that Android is doing badly, but it is a bit further behind, say 18 months, than people tend to suggest)

There are also a lot of high-end Android phones that have come out in the last two months, and coming out soon. In the end, this discussion doesn't really matter. Obviously, nobody knows the future.

I also realize that these numbers only represent one quarter, but if you look at the previous quarters, you'll see that Android is experiencing steady growth. I have no doubt that the iPhone 4 will be a boon to Apple's numbers. We only have to wait another three months to find out! :)

I checked our server stats this morning & at least over here in Germany, Apple iOS device growth is still outpacing Android growth. My guess is that while the absolute number of Android devices is growing, the number of people actually using those devices for browsing the web is simply not growing as fast. This won't change until Android offers a browsing experience that bests the ease-of-use of iOS devices.

The thing about Android momentum is forgetting it's not all due to phones. There's Archos pushing it on tablets, there's the Barnes & Noble Nook which is Android-based too. Developers need to keep in mind that not every device is going to have a wee screen or every hardware button. This should be obvious, but it's often forgotten.

I think it's great that some people are switching phones due to subjectively perceived advantages. "Openness" is one of those issues that gets brought up all the time and it's really more of a personal preference than a "hard feature" that makes one thing better than the other.

To me, this means that we have now two got options on the market and it's up to people to choose. I hated how one-sided the market was for a few years, where AT&T had an amazing phone that was so much better than everything else. At least now, there's a competitor that's gaining ground. Let's hope this is is good for everybody.

"Openness" is one of those issues that gets brought up all the time and it's really more of a personal preference than a "hard feature" that makes one thing better than the other.

Most "features" are personal preference, that's how features get created/deployed, because someone somewhere decided it would be a good thing to build into the device.

Choosing based on openness is a risk management technique. While it's unlikely that Apple is going to go out of business or stop supporting the iPhone and many people change phone hardware every six months anyway, if something does happen the more open platform is one that has a greater chance of getting continued support for. On closed platforms, you often can't get continued support for love or money after its been EOL'ed.

A more realistic/pragmatic example is becoming dependent on a specific app and being able to install and use it (perhaps in an enterprise environment). If Apple decides to shutdown the app and not distribute it via iTunes, you're screwed (or you have to root the device, the ability or willingness to do so is also a risk management technique). With android, the device comes with the ability to install anything from anywhere, an app that no longer appears in the market is minor hiccup rather than insurmountable problem.

>>Android definitely has momentum but at their current rate it will still take years to match the iPhone's share of the market.

If/when the iPhone is available on Verizon,T-Mobile and Sprint (besides AT&T), Android's momentum is going to drastically slow down.

The revenue issue and Google/carrier policies that cause fragmentation (e.g. only 27.3% of Android owners could run the official Twitter app when it launched) mean that the iPhone will attract more serious developers (and therefore more good-quality apps for consumers)

>If/when the iPhone is available on Verizon,T-Mobile and Sprint (besides AT&T), Android's momentum is going to drastically slow down.

Good luck with that.

While this may be, history does not show that that's the case. Apple has always provided a more consistent environment to develop against than Microsoft did/could (because Apple controls the hardware), and there's always been both more developers and more software for Windows. One could play the quality card here, but all that matters is the quality of the apps that are used and that there is a demand for, not the average quality of all apps ever. No one cares if a Homer Simpson soundboard app is of low quality.

That the official twitter app couldn't run on 27.3% of Android owners most likely reflects more on the developers of the app than on the platform (or on the schedule the developers are working against). "Serious developers" for a platform ensure that their product sufficiently meets their target market (the "27.3% of android owners" number assumes that 100% of android owners even wanted to run the official twitter app, the way you've worded it). This is pretty straight forward to do with Android: acquire and test against all the popular devices out there. You can even run and compile against older versions of the SDK without issue. Sure, this is more work, but that's your target demographic and it's something that people have been doing for at least as long as Windows has been popular. It's not like twitter doesn't have the cash to do this.

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