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Comment by Retric | Hacker News Reader

The problem is there is going to be a minimum monthly fee of around 10$ to keep the lights on. So, fragmentation just increases prices without any net benefit for the consumer.

The real killer IMO is most young adults just don't watch much TV in any form. If your watching ~10 hours a month then paying for more than one streaming service is just a waste. Don't forget it's the median viewer that's important not the average of 0, 1, 2, 3, 100.

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> The real killer IMO is most young adults just don't watch much TV in any form.

It's interesting, I'm 32 so on the upper end of millennial. We're supposed to be the multitasking, multiple screen generation.

But I'll visit older relatives, say 55+, and they'll have the TV on constantly and just talk over it. I find it so distracting and honestly stressful, like when you're on a conference call, your boss is Slacking you and your friend's texting about their fight with their SO last night.

My friends my age all say the same. For most "young adults," you're either silently watching TV, or you're doing something else.

My best guess is that TV has gotten louder and faster paced, but older viewers have hung on to their habits. I bet I could easily have a conversation during Cheers or '90s Law and Order, but not today's shows.

Humans can't multitask regardless of their generation

He/she means, rapid task switching.

I'm a young adult and I watch way more TV than I'm comfortable divulging to my friends. Easily more than three hours a day on average.

At the same time, I'm usually not paying much attention as I'm either doing work or studying while it is on in the background

Plus I don't want to manage subscriptions in a bunch of different places. For instance, on Amazon I can add/remove things like HBO and Showtime and have it all in one place.

As much as I like Twin Peaks, I'm not sure I would have signed up for Showtime to watch it weekly unless it were right there with the rest of my content.

Except for Sling, I manage all of my subscriptions through iTunes -- Netflix, Hulu, Starz (during the summer), CBS All Access, and PluralSight (yeah it's still video content). I can still use the subscriptions on any device, including my Rokus.

Exactly. I'm not going to go to Disney or Showtime and subscribe on everyone's platform to watch the one or two shows I would watch. But if it's a reasonably priced addition to whatever streaming service I regularly use... I'm more likely to.

As a consumer, I do feel I'm seeing a net benefit without any price increases - or at least a benefit commensurate with the price increase. I watch one alternative streaming service for a while, then, when another that interests me more comes along, I switch to that one and cancel the old one. So the amount of content available to me is "eventually better" at a price that's currently pretty stable.

You're right, though, part of this is that I don't watch much TV in any form. It's probably less than 2 hours a week. So it really doesn't make much sense for me to subscribe to more than one service at a time. Not that that means we've canceled the Netflix subscription, but it's becoming a perennial discussion topic around our house of late.

Let me turn it around, on you, though: What makes you think that having a really good library of streaming content available on a single service at Netflix's prices is even financially tenable? The last time Netflix had a really great selection was when their prime service was still renting DVDs, so I certainly don't think they've been able to demonstrate that it's possible. And if they can't, who can? As more of a long tail consumer, the One Streaming Service to Rule Them All future looks pretty bleak to me - cheap, sure, but also crappy. You get what you pay for.

My theory is it's just a question of getting the financials right. A streaming service that's passes along ~80% of it's revenue based on what individual people watch and some weighting so more recent content gets a higher multiple seems like the long term winner.

The idea is if someone watches 2 hours a month then whatever they watch gets high value. But, if someone watches 200 hours a month then everyone gets far less. And the net benifit is both niche content for picky viewers and bulk content for people that want background noise are both viable.

Right now there are similar calculations, but it's very indirect which makes fragmentation seem like a better deal for content creators.

One likely future is more a la carte purchasing, whether to rent or own. We're well on the way to that with movies. No all-you-can-eat subscription service has even a mediocre selection. And, having effectively driven everyone else in the space out of business, Netflix' long tail DVD catalog is degrading as they apparently don't replace disks that are lost/damaged.

I agree with the broader point though. I don't watch a lot of TV which means there's a definite limit to how many subscription services I'll get. Maybe that means I don't watch a show here or there I might have been inclined to but that's OK.

The min price is about $10 because there isnt that much competition yet. I suspect if the author's fragmentation comes true, it will go down for single studi/channel offerings.

There won't be competition for exclusive content like Disney, AMC, HBO etc. except piracy which is still a lot easier for a lot of people, and if fragmentation continues, it will be Even more so.

I think piracy is the real competitor here. Unless they stop torrents they wont succeed here.

Piracy will always be competition because of availability and not price. A lot of people who can afford to pay pirate cause the content they want is not available to them legally. Unless we somehow switch to a global content platform piracy is here to stay. And it's not just torrents, you can now pay for illegal services that behave like Netflix with polished UIs and get access to a larger catalog without geographical restrictions.

Make it easier than piracy, done!

Today you cannot pay for a recent movie unless you go to a cinema (which I personally find an anachronism). To pay for older content, you need to find who is streaming it, pay a subscription with them, then find in what country they streaming it, pay for some fancy VPN service, setup the fancy VPN, restart your device and now watch it.

Or, you can pirate it and watch it!

Piracy will always be easiest. Much like most unethical things.

I think services like Spotify or Google play music are already much easier than pirating songs. Why do you think a similar state cannot be achieved for TV shows or movies?

Unless you're in a country where the licensing disagrees. Or a label chooses not to sell a catalog to you.

Music does work a little differently. You pay per play, vs. TV you're paying for a catalog.

Steam is a great counter-example. As is spotify.

Steam is a great example, licensing seems to be pretty universal most of the times allowing games in most countries. Music is a little harder and TV/movies are a lot harder.

The music business is much more on board than TV/Movies. But TV/Movies still have a lot of leverage.

No there would not be competition for the same disney movie. But there is a lot of competing content out there that will lower prices.

You don't need to have your own streaming service to charge for your stuff. Hulu, Amazon and VRV all have the ability to add packages to their basic offering.

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