In my opinion, a lot of this rhetoric is being repeated. But the points raised by the original memo require a bit of perhaps subtle mathematics to understand.

This is an attempt at curating a list of relevant math and rationality articles, so that we can at least speak the same language when talking about this.

Start here: I personally view it as the base model of all beliefs that we can hold. It talks about some kinds of things that we can know and how much we should have confidence in what we know.

Bayes theorem: http://arbital.com/p/bayes_rule_guide