Show HN: Short-term rental estimate for sites like Airbnb | Hacker News Reader

Show HN: Short-term rental estimate for sites like Airbnb

eliotandme.com

220 pointsedouard123456797 comments

For everyone wondering how much the White House could rent for on Airbnb (132 bedrooms/35 bathrooms). $157,920/week

https://www.eliotandme.com/estimator?address=white+house%20&...

Lincoln bedroom @ https://whitehouse.gov1.info/visit/index.html 400$ / night. So 7 * 400 * 132 = 369,000 / week. Making that's a hefty bulk discount ;-)

PS: And yes this is a parody.

The statement is brilliant, I wonder how they could put that up with a straight face:

> We regret to announce that the "White House Overnight Guest Program" will no longer continue under the Trump Administration due to the repeal of the Obama Administration's openness and transparency doctrine. You are welcome, however, to make a reservation to stay at the 5-star Trump International Hotel just down the street.

The $400 a night is per double occupancy though, so really it's only $200 per head.

EDIT: Ok, it's a parody. Shame! :(

Yea, sorry if you got your hopes up. The .info domain and low price seemed a little over the top. But, I came across it a while ago and had to link it based on the GP's post.

Obama's openness and transparency? haha.

To help, since you look to be somewhat new, the downvotes aren't just because this is place a bastion of liberal Democrat support, but because you didn't really contribute with your comment.

Make an actual argument with references to back it up and you'll likely still get argument, but not necesarrily downvotes.

For one, Obama was the worst president when it comes to prosecute whistle blowers that brought attention to illegal activities within the Government (it's like the opposite of openness)... Yeah, Obama liked to say that he was transparent or open, but actions speak louder. (I don't think that this needs references, it is a well known fact, but here you go: http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2014/jan/10/...)

Firstly, that article itself notes, some of those cases were likely not whistleblowers (they were just relaying government information to news agencies, and even if trying to be transparent I doubt they intended internal negotiations with North Korea and Iran to to transparent while ongoing). Secondly, that's but one aspect of administration transparency, there are many to consider, such as how much other information was released, when it was released, and how complete it was. Looking at one metric, even if it's an important one, and using it as the sole basis for making that judgement, amounts to more of a PR move and clickbait headline than useful assessment.

That said, I agree, Obama didn't appear to run a very open administration. It appeared very secretive. Then again, the prosecuting of of people for leaked information rather than quiet pressure and sanctions is itself a form of transparency (it's also noted in that article that past presidents used many other techniques to pressure reporters instead of the legal system).

In the end, this is a complex enough topic that without a massive investment of time and effort, most arguments are going to have a hefty amount of opinion, making useful discussion hard. It doesn't help that we don't have an easy comparison with Trump's administration. In one respect, it's likely the most open administration there's ever been. I just don't think that's by design...

but since this is place a bastion of liberal Democrat support (as you put it), proofs are only asked when you talk against democrats... (Do you think that Google would fire somebody for saying what I said? I do...)

> but since this is place a bastion of liberal Democrat support (as you put it)

Actually I was implying that it may be seen that way, and even if you see it that way that doesn't fully explain what was going on.

> but since this is place a bastion of liberal Democrat support (as you put it)

Not true. There are some vocal Trump supporters here (out at least they were, they've been quiet of late). Unsupported statements are often called out on both sides. It may happen more for one side than the other, but that just means it's up to people like you to ask. If you can do it in a respectful way, you're part of the solution (and I suspect you'll get upvotes for it).

That's also a very vocal set of libertarians that are happy to explain or argue the finer points of their reasoning.

> but since this is place a bastion of liberal Democrat support (as you put it)

I don't think that really has any place in this discussion, but I'll humor you. No, I don't think they would. There are many Republicans working at Google. This is about a specific aspect of the company policy which happens to align with professed democratic principles. An employee publicly called that policy into question in a way that was easy for some to see as bigotry. That's a PR nightmare, and puts a spotlight on the company in a way they don't like, all because of one person. The PR nightmare alone is enough to cause the firing. Everything else just made the decision easier.

You mean that the current presidential couple only pays $200? And for a long time the first lady stayed in NY... ;)

Looks like they're lowballing the Queen by a bit then

https://www.eliotandme.com/estimator?address=Westminster%2C+...

I found this to be really inaccurate. I've been a host of an Airbnb for a few years. I've slowly moved my price up until I hit the maximum 70£/day. I have hundreds of positive reviews.

The price the website suggested was 120£.

I then went in to put an obscure address where there is no demand, and the price was $140/day. I've rented a hotel in the area for $30/day.

$30? Where is such a place, Siberia?

Asheville, NC

Prices on Airbnb seem close to the estimate : https://www.airbnb.com/s/Asheville--NC--United-States/homes?...

I thought that area was actually pretty popular with outdoorsy people.

imho its age related. retirees and seniors touring Ashville prefer more private and secure hotel accommodations.

There are plenty of AirBnB places in fairly touristed places in the developing world for 15-20€/day.

Room or a whole house?

Using Airbnb, I rented an entire 2 bedroom apartment in downtown Belgrade, Serbia for about 13 days. With fees, the price was $380-ish USD, just under $30/night. It was a really good deal!

In many countries, in that price range you can find everything. For example, last year on a cycling trip I ended up in an Albanian city on the one weekend a year when all accommodation is fully booked due to a festival. Lucky there was one remaining AirBnB host, and I rented his five-room house for 25€, fees included. He lived elsewhere, I had the whole place to myself (which was total overkill). Most of the other hosts, though unfortunately already booked, were offering rooms or entire spare flats for half that.

Hotel rooms, too

I rented (entire) Airbnb places in Berlin for one year because I was looking for a flat. I used this to scout each part of the city to decide where to look for rentals. I was always traveling during weekends, so I mostly rented during the week. There are top notch AirBnB apartments in Berlin that you can get for as little as 20€ a day.

A rental pretty much anywhere in Poland will be around that. I've paid as little as $20/day for a nice flat.

"the maximum"? You mean you didn't get much interest above 70£?

Airbnb already supports this https://www.airbnb.com/host/homes

That's a city-level estimate. OP provides estimates based on your actual address.

For my own reference point in Wilmington DE. It was saying daily 130 for home, 55 for room. I rented out rooms at 15$ a night. I was constantly told I was overpriced for the area. Despite providing free weekend breakfast, and Friday night dinners.

$15/night sounds really cheap! $55 for a private room seems reasonable compared to what's on Airbnb: https://www.airbnb.com/s/Wilmington-de/homes?guests=1&adults...

How is this "Artificial Intelligence" (from the about page: https://www.eliotandme.com/about)?

For some, AI is just another buzzword. :/

It's a nice idea, and your UI is nice, but I hate the name as it's very forgettable and using it against my parents Airbnb cottage, and a friends flat, it is wildly inaccurate.

Looks great. Consider adding dishwasher and washer/dryer as factors too — I found those made a big difference (20%+) when doing my own comps research.

Gave me the exact same rate for my current apartment (1600sq ft Capitol Hill Seattle) and my previous condo (1100 sq ft NuLu Louisville, KY). My rent here is 3.5x what my mortgage was in Louisville and from personal experience in both places the demand for short term rentals in Louisville is nothing like it is in Seattle. So yeah... probably not accurate for the addresses I checked.

or maybe you overpaid for your apartment. it's not uncommon in cities on the west coast for prices to irrationally exceed the possible rental income.

I should have better specified... the rate per night makes sense for the place in Seattle, but is way overpriced for the place in Louisville.

This could also be used when looking for an Airbnb. You could use it to get a rough price estimate in an area near your destination.

Curious to see how it relates to the mortgage of some houses.

I did a quick check in the Sunnyvale area, a $2M mortgage on a 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath house that can sleep 6 at $2700 a week is about the same as a mortgage. (note you'd insurance, pay taxes on the house, and have more expensive maintenance) So bottom line you'd lose money on the deal.

I have the understanding that no one expects residential real estate rental to be cash-flow positive with a full mortgage. It's extremely rare and basically a complete no-brainer if you can find a property that is cash-flow positive with a mortgage. Generally, one looks at equity and tries for net-worth positive. Which is simple to say, but is made more complex by older mortgages giving more equity for an equal payment.

Of course, with an interest-only mortgage, yes one would need to be cash-flow positive, because there is no such thing as gaining equity. Again, my understanding is that such properties are extremely rare.

If you're investing in real estate you always want a mortgage and you always want it cash-flow positive. If it's not cash-flow positive on the first day of renting it out, then you don't buy the property. Investing for equity is about the dumbest mistake some real estate investors make. Always invest on cash-flow. Investing for capital appreciation is a recipe for disaster. With positive cash-flow, the underlying value is irrelevant.

When I say you "always want a mortgage" I mean that if you have a mortgage you have your tenants paying for the house. Your cash on cash return is far higher. If your potential property doesn't support that, then find another property. Paying $200k cash for a house that nets $500 per month is far less interesting than buying 10 houses at $20k down that each net $200 per month -- and it takes exactly the same cash.

The overhead of renting 10 houses, and the interest on 10 mortgages, is just zero or what?

I don't disagree with you. I was speaking solely about full mortgage -- ie, minimum down payment. Turning a positive cash flow with a large mortgage is very difficult, especially after accounting for all costs. (Mortgage, taxes, insurance, maintenance, hoa, vacancy...) Turning a positive cash flow without any mortgage is very easy, but kills your ROI. So you're going to end up shooting somewhere in the middle...

EDIT: Here's a fun Reddit thread on the topic:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/36ikp6/landlord...

Here's an example from that thread on how quickly the math takes you to roughly cash-flow neutral -- and this is with 25% down and 1% rental price:

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/36ikp6/landlord...

Before going straight for the mortgage repayment question, I wonder how many take up proper insurances to cover worst case scenarios (i.e. property getting fully trashed in a drug/alcohol binge party scenario) - and how much they cost.

I agree with you, however, I just want to point out that a completely destroyed house in a drug binge orgy party isn't even close to the worse case scenario, at least then you can "only" lose 100% of the value of your physical property, maybe ~$300,000. The worse case scenario is someone getting seriously hurt or dying, that could cost millions and has virtually no upper limit - https://medium.com/matter/living-and-dying-on-airbnb-6bff8d6...

Ah, you're completely right - great point. What a horrible story. :(

For a property appraised at 400k a short term vacation policy would cost you ~$2100/year .

The PITI on my house is $1,250 ($750 P+I) with a 20% down payment at a 30 year fixed interest loan. I use about $200/month in utilities. This site says I can rent my entire house out for $210 a day so, in theory, renting it for seven days would pay for the housing costs ignoring any increase in insurance and utilities for turning it into a short term rental and totally ignoring maintenance and labor. (which, obviously, is a significant cost) Realistically I wouldn't be cash flow positive until day nine at least.

However, I think that's unrealistic, I believe the demand for my house would be extremely low at that price point. My house is very appealing for residents, I don't see it being particularly appealing for travelers and there's cheaper options for travelers.

My neighborhood is zoned residential, however, so I seriously doubt turning it into a hotel would be legal. My neighbors would complain as well (and that's nothing against them)

Here's a google spreadsheet[1] that i used a few times. This will give you a general idea of where you would be based on mortgage etc, but you need to know the area, possible daily rent value, minimum occupancy etc

[1] - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rCz54o_8Z_9fMkPQyTTZ...

There's no way a 4BR/3B house in Las Vegas (Summerlin, to be exact) is going for 1500 a week.

Nice try, though.

Forgive my ignorance but is that too high or too low?

Waaaaay too high. Probably by an order of magnitude.

Really? For a week? 4 bedrooms potentially sleeps 8 people.

4 bedrooms can sleep more than 8 people. More like 12 possibly. All that matters is the beds layout and your willingness so try and max the sleeping area. This is from experience.

The intention is to extract value from your unoccupied home without irritating the neighbors/running a tenement.

You would find a 4 bedroom property in Las Vegas for $25 a night? Sign me up.

Where are you getting that from? The price seems totally in line with what’s actually advertised for properties on Airbnb. I don’t know anything about Las Vegas rentals though.

I'd be very curious to know on what you base your judgment. Here is a search on Airbnb for Summerlin Las Vegas 4BR/3Baths and I'd say $200-$250/night looks reasonable (apparently average is $429) https://www.airbnb.com/s/summerlin-las-vegas/homes?allow_ove...

There's a difference between what's listed and what actually moves.

I would say it's way too low.

I'd add a privacy policy. I didn't want to enter my real address since I didn't know what could be done with my address. I know your intentions are not nefarious, but a simple blurb around what you do w/ collected data would be nice.

Apparently Trump could get $1,150 per week letting out the White House.

Well, it is a real dump.

I guess this won't be enough to balance the budget.

"White House, Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest, Washington, DC, United States 2 bedrooms 1 bathroom 4 people"

Huh, I've always thought the WH was bigger than that.

I think that's just the east wing.

It's the other people in the house...

Is that how much you could get if you are aiming to getting close to 100% occupancy?

How is my data being used here? Not super comfortable giving my address and then giving information about the house when there's no information about how the data is being handled/stored.

You can get all this info off Zillow. Not sure what the concern is.

That sort of information about your house is already public.

This is brilliant, for commercial Airbnb operators. Depending on who you are that might be good or bad, but I won't wade into the debate :)

I did a more basic analysis when looking at the most profitable Airbnb cities a few months back: https://www.travelstatsman.com/06022017/cities-airbnb-hosts-...

Quite accurate estimate on our apartment in Stockholm, Sweden (we rent out sometimes at a slightly higher price than estimated)

Hobart, Australia: the estimate from this page for 1 week of renting, would cover a monthly of an interest only mortgage.

When I have looked into it before, that's more or less what you would expect. 1 week holiday let = covers mortgage for month.

It's almost exactly that (within 10%) for the estimate of my house.

There is a big difference between a regular mortgage and an interest only mortgage.

It seems like I could get more for my rental on bbro, if it was 100% occupied. It would be helpful to know occupancy stats and average length of stay to estimate turn-around costs.

Nice, I like this a lot. I'm curious: How did you get the event data? It's really accurate a clean for San Francisco (Dreamforce, Fleet Week, etc.)

question for people who use airbnb: If you've had a good experience with a host and you're going back to the area would you bother booking through Airbnb or just contact the host directly?

I'd go through airbnb again unless i really expected to stay there frequently. Dispute mitigation cuts both ways.

If I'm going to stay more than a week or two, or more than once or twice, I cut out AirBnB and contract/pay directly with the host.

I'm a host and send people back through Airbnb anyway. The fees they charge are minor compared to the insurance and ease of use. Plus you want the reviews from those repeat customers.

Shouldn't it be EliotAndI.com?

Most likely yes, but that didn't stop 23andme.com haha :)

It is interesting how language morphs over time. Some people will be quite opposed to grammatical errors taking root.

But language has a tendency to not only accept those errors as dual-truths, but eventually replace those errors as sole truths!

This is to the point where "you and I" sounds stunted, overly formal and archaic, compared to "you and me", in my opinion.

"He gave it to Eliot and me," is correct.

"Eliot and me gave it to him," is not.

"He gave it to Eliot and I," would be an example of hypercorrection.

Depends. Is it a subject or an object?

I know some superhosts who use airdna.co to find new properties to invest in and price listings. It's not free though.

If only it was legal in my state!

Seems accurate, might be better to consider current rating, amenities, etc.

awesome! well done.

Cool idea, very inaccurate.

Do you have an example?

Well for one, it lists my house as having the wrong number of bedrooms and bathrooms, and then proceeds to give an inaccurate number for rents in the area if you actually go look at Airbnb.

I think it is a default, 2 bedrooms , 1 bathroom.

Wouldn't you be worried if it showed the exact numbers?

No, such data isn't hard to come by.

Yes. Where I live it would be impossible to rent this place for 6 nights/week at $138/night.

If I could get the bank financing, I could buy 5 properties in the market I am in and all would generate 25% cash on cash returns after a few months of renovations. With the scale I could hire full time staff and centralize laundry.

And before anyone jumps down my throat for this, it would be a social good in this particular market and help the local housing market (there is a surplus of housing and ample very affordable housing, the problem here is lack of jobs)

And if anyone thinks this would be a soft option, it would be a lot of work and a lot of responsibility and a lot of value added.

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