Amazon Is the New Tech Crash

Second version of roughly the same story today. When flying sky high it’s easy to say bubble or correction coming soon.

I see a better story. Pent up demand for growth investment. Big companies have largely been uninteresting over the last several years, ever increasing dividends and stock buybacks tell us they just don’t know what to do with excess revenues. This seems to be starting to unlock as big companies try to figure out the next big thing. Meanwhile investors are showing their support for the Amazon’s of the world over the Walmart’s... its why Tesla is valued over Ford. Investors believe the management at Amazon will utilize capital to fuel growth better than other available options.

Perhaps there is a bubble or correction coming but if so, it’s just starting to form.

I think Amazon the company is going to be fine. Bezos will adjust his business model when the growth slows down.

What everybody can agree with is that AMZN stock price is massively overvalued.

Amazon is on low margin retail business. Amazons market cap is 4751B. Assuming 10% ROI and 3% profit margin, Amazon must make $16 trillion in revenue some time in the future.

US retail sales are $5 trillion.

Total retail sales across the globe are $22 trillion.

Amazon runs out of markets before current stock price can be justified.