This is where I disagree with most people who are bullish on Tesla. I think there's a huge risk for Tesla that most people don't factor in- that it's very possible that most car buyers simply don't want one. The interesting thing about that is that most people seem to assume that making them at enormous scale and meeting the overwhelming demand is the only risk. What a century of observing the auto industry has taught us is that car buyers in huge percentages have fierce brand-loyalty and that anytime a new model is brought to market there's a huge uphill battle to create demand.

That's not to say that lots of people won't want a Tesla, clearly there's evidence that there's a market. But it remains to be seen whether that's a niche market or the better part of the auto market. To justify the current valuation, you'd have to believe its the latter.

Comparisons to the iPhone seem oversimplified. The iPhone on pretty much every metric was demonstrably better than every other phone on the market, and by a huge margin.

Tesla is better on some metrics- doesn't rely on fossil fuels, has some cool technology, and is a novelty because there aren't that many of them on the road.

But on most other metrics, there are lots and lots of better options. Some have more power, some are much cheaper, some have more storage space, and some simply have better brand awareness and loyalty.

Again, not suggesting that they aren't developing a great product. But there are huge risks to the survival of this company beyond cash burn that I don't think people are taking into account.