From what I've seen Java/JVM AOT won't produce binary executables but shared libraries that will be loaded on startup by the JVM.
When I first read about Java AOT-compilation I expected it to produce real executables that's why I think this is important to mention.
But please correct me if I am wrong.
So if this is true even with AOT compilation you still need the JVM as dependency (although I think you can get a minimal JVM in under 10MB).
It also seems that the AOT compiled code needs to be recompiled on Java updates.
Although I quite like Java and the JVM, I still wouldn't choose Java for writing simple command line tools.
Nevertheless it is quite useful for improving startup for tools like Gradle or server applications. But sure, I also don't expect Java startup performance to be a problem in the mid- to long-run.