Did the block three blocks ago cause a fork? Are we just waiting for someone to mine a Bitcoin Cash block on top of this block and then there’ll be a fork?
EDIT: Here's the log from a Bitcoin ABC node I have running:
2017-08-01 13:23:36 ERROR: AcceptBlock: bad-blk-too-small, size limits failed (code 16) (block 00000000000000000019f112ec0a9982926f1258cdcc558dd7c3b7e5dc7fa148)
2017-08-01 13:23:36 ERROR: ProcessNewBlock: AcceptBlock FAILED
2017-08-01 13:23:48 ERROR: AcceptBlockHeader: block 00000000000000000019f112ec0a9982926f1258cdcc558dd7c3b7e5dc7fa148 is marked invalid
2017-08-01 13:23:48 ERROR: invalid header received
2017-08-01 13:24:06 ERROR: AcceptBlockHeader: block 00000000000000000019f112ec0a9982926f1258cdcc558dd7c3b7e5dc7fa148 is marked invalid
2017-08-01 13:24:06 ERROR: invalid header received
[ ... last two lines repeat ... ]
Looks like 00000000000000000019f112ec0a9982926f1258cdcc558dd7c3b7e5dc7fa148 AKA block number 478559 was rejected by Bitcoin ABC.EDIT2: Here's the code [1]. The block was rejected by Bitcoin ABC/Cash because it was smaller than 1 MB.
[1] https://github.com/Bitcoin-ABC/bitcoin-abc/blob/174846aaaf56...
Now the BCC miners are actually working on producing the first BCC-only block, which will be block 478559 on the BCC chain and will be different from block 478559 on the BTC chain, hence effectively splitting the chain.
Since BCC has only a tiny fraction of BTC's hash rate (around 1% by most estimates, although it's pretty hard to evaluate) it will take a while for this block to be found. Probably hours, maybe even days.
Eventually the difficulty on the BCC chain will adjust, so even if the hash rate remains low the "blockrate" should steadily increase within the next few weeks. Also since BCC blocks can be 8 times as big they can fit more transactions in a single block, somewhat mitigating the effect.
I think people would abandon long before that.
In case the MTP of the tip of the chain is 12h or more after the MTP 6 block before the tip, the proof of work target is increased by a quarter, or 25%, which corresponds to a difficulty reduction of 20%.
So as long as the BCC keeps lagging behind massively (less than 6 blocks every 12h) the difficulty is reduced by 20% after every new block.
[1] https://github.com/Bitcoin-UAHF/spec/blob/master/uahf-techni...
So it takes 6 consecutive blocks to be found "fast enough" (that is, within a 12h window) to return to the normal difficulty algorithm.
Furthermore if they really only wanted to slow down BCC and nothing else it still wouldn't be very efficient. They'd just postpone the scaling for the next 6 blocks and then the rule would kick in again. So they'd have to keep make sure that they're always just at the limit of 6 blocks per 12 hours... but at this point you're actually mining block and contributing to the ecosystem, so there's no problem.
Looks like though they're getting blocks now, 4 blocks in less than two hours.
It looks like 25% of the nodes in the Bitcoin network are suddenly running "Bitcoin ABC" (the implementation supporting bigger block sizes) on AWS... someone somewhere has started a bunch of (spot?) instances it seems.
Spawning nodes is cheap and doesn't really mean much.
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/6qvofq/someone_just_la...
FYI -- It's not immediately clear, but the details of how this works and the status checks are provided at the bottom of the webpage.