The difference is Tesla has a plan to scale up. How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They may adapt, but will surely lose their comfortable position in the market.
Tesla doesn't actually own any of the gigafactories, Panasonic does. Tesla just buys their batteries from them. So can others.
Does it say "Panasonic Gigafactory" anywhere on that webpage?
You're assuming that a) BMW has no viable EV plan and b) Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs. To say Elon Musk is an ambitious person is an understatement.
I don't doubt that the next decade in automotive industry is going to result in a major shakeup, but I disagree that it will result in some of the existing big manufacturers becoming a shadow of their former selves. It's the smaller ones like Mazda and Subaru that are more at risk.
Tesla's global sales EO2016 were 150k. i3 sales by July 2016 were 50k. All of Tesla's models outsold the i3 by 3x... which isn't a lot when you take into account that Tesla have more models and have been in production for quite a few years longer.
>How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They may adapt, but will surely lose their comfortable position in the market.
Unless they make a decision overnight to ramp up production 10x, this isn't going to be an immediate concern. Like Tesla or other EV manufacturers, they may invest in or build battery plants of their own. Tesla's approach is neither unique nor a once-only.
Besides, market share isn't everything. Just look at the iPhone. It's outsold by Android devices by a huge margin yet I don't think anyone would argue that it holds a comfortable position in the market. BMW has never been particular about it's market share, it sees itself as a luxury brand. It doesn't need (or perhaps even want) to have the most popular EV. It doesn't even have that now (it's in the top 3 though) and the market for EVs is much smaller. As long as the company is profitable and it sells well, that tends to be enough.
I haven't seen it yet. Maybe they've already manufactured 10 million fully autonomous EVs and holding off till 2018 just to surprise everyone. But until they start talking about it, or selling it, nobody knows.
> Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs
At least they are giving it a legit try. But yeah, it's a huge risk, and highly uncertain what will finally come to be.
I kind of agree with the rest of what you said. BMW is likely not concerned with capturing market.
And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Much of the know how is bought in from Panasonic. Gigafacory is behind the planned production time. And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-...).
Agreed. But that doesn't mean they aren't better technically, too. Case in point: Apple
> First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies.
Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that.
> And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special.
Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model.
> And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021
Oh you mean an entire country (also one of the biggest producers of manufactured goods) is going to produce only 3x the amount of batteries made by one factory, about 3 years later? Man that makes me more hyped for Tesla!
It's all about logistics, infrastructure and capital. Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be...
Switching to batteries essentially just means reprogramming those robots.
> Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model.
Please point me to a factory that actually produces 35GWh/a ;)
That's even weaker when Tesla is supposed to announce their own Chinese gigafactory, so hopefully that's not being counted.
No. Tesla is not a person.
> by pointing out that 1 American factory today produces one third of the amount expected of the whole of China in 4 years time?
35GWh/p is the projected capacity of Gigafactory for 2020. The factory is by no means finished and currently behind schedule. The bloomberg article I linked to compares the projected capacity of Gigafactory with the projected capacity of the new Chinese factories that, too, are currently in production and are ready at about the same time.
Just look how how not one press release of Tesla lists current capacity of Gigafactory.
What you describe is amazing, a testament to Tesla, but you seem to be trying to knock Tesla down by stating it.
The point I'm trying to make: Tesla doesn't seem to have a big advantage with Gigafactory, as there is plenty of worlwide production capacity other car companies could buy from. And that third party capacity grows faster.