Say what you want but American entrepreneurs do have an unbelievable appetite for disruption.
This is true for both EVs as well as autonomous driving. The manufacturers have the technology but only introduce it once the whole package makes sense (incl batteries). They won't lose much market share because the market is currently so small (except for markets where tax incentives were very large).
Once EVs make economic sense for the majority of drivers (probably in 5-7 years), I'd expect each of the large German manufacturer to have 10+ models on offer. With the knowledge around other aspects of the car and their production capacity they can probably make up for the delay within a few months' of production.
Makes sense except I think Tesla themselves will be a big player in 5-7 years. It's not going to be a walkover. Specially since setting up battery manufacturing needs time and expertise they (German corps) don't have.
Large manufacturers can likely progress fast on new technology so I'd guess that this will just lead to further concentration and another smaller player disappears (if there's still one left).
It's still to be shown if Tesla can mass-produce and if it can get profitable. Right now it's producing a small amount of expensive cars with shabby interior.
I believe they'll adapt just fine.
Tesla doesn't actually own any of the gigafactories, Panasonic does. Tesla just buys their batteries from them. So can others.
Does it say "Panasonic Gigafactory" anywhere on that webpage?
You're assuming that a) BMW has no viable EV plan and b) Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs. To say Elon Musk is an ambitious person is an understatement.
I don't doubt that the next decade in automotive industry is going to result in a major shakeup, but I disagree that it will result in some of the existing big manufacturers becoming a shadow of their former selves. It's the smaller ones like Mazda and Subaru that are more at risk.
Tesla's global sales EO2016 were 150k. i3 sales by July 2016 were 50k. All of Tesla's models outsold the i3 by 3x... which isn't a lot when you take into account that Tesla have more models and have been in production for quite a few years longer.
>How is BMW going to acquire all the batteries needed if they want to start selling 10x the number of i3s? They may adapt, but will surely lose their comfortable position in the market.
Unless they make a decision overnight to ramp up production 10x, this isn't going to be an immediate concern. Like Tesla or other EV manufacturers, they may invest in or build battery plants of their own. Tesla's approach is neither unique nor a once-only.
Besides, market share isn't everything. Just look at the iPhone. It's outsold by Android devices by a huge margin yet I don't think anyone would argue that it holds a comfortable position in the market. BMW has never been particular about it's market share, it sees itself as a luxury brand. It doesn't need (or perhaps even want) to have the most popular EV. It doesn't even have that now (it's in the top 3 though) and the market for EVs is much smaller. As long as the company is profitable and it sells well, that tends to be enough.
I haven't seen it yet. Maybe they've already manufactured 10 million fully autonomous EVs and holding off till 2018 just to surprise everyone. But until they start talking about it, or selling it, nobody knows.
> Tesla will be able to follow through with theirs
At least they are giving it a legit try. But yeah, it's a huge risk, and highly uncertain what will finally come to be.
I kind of agree with the rest of what you said. BMW is likely not concerned with capturing market.
And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special. Much of the know how is bought in from Panasonic. Gigafacory is behind the planned production time. And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-28/china-is-...).
Agreed. But that doesn't mean they aren't better technically, too. Case in point: Apple
> First, Tesla needs to scale up because it currently produces tiny numbers of cars (70k) compared to Toyota (10 million), VW (10 million) and the other existing car companies.
Except that the 10 million number does not matter if their entire system is set up to make exploding-fuel cars. The only thing common is the external shell and the dash electronics. The real expertise and resource is needed to make the rest of the stuff. And Tesla is ahead in that.
> And Teslas Giga Factory is nothing special.
Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model.
> And China alone is expected to produce more than 3 times the output of Gigafactory in 2021
Oh you mean an entire country (also one of the biggest producers of manufactured goods) is going to produce only 3x the amount of batteries made by one factory, about 3 years later? Man that makes me more hyped for Tesla!
It's all about logistics, infrastructure and capital. Have a look at this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VreG1iC65Lc&feature=youtu.be...
Switching to batteries essentially just means reprogramming those robots.
> Please point me to a battery factory this big, set up exclusively to supply batteries for one EV model.
Please point me to a factory that actually produces 35GWh/a ;)
That's even weaker when Tesla is supposed to announce their own Chinese gigafactory, so hopefully that's not being counted.
No. Tesla is not a person.
> by pointing out that 1 American factory today produces one third of the amount expected of the whole of China in 4 years time?
35GWh/p is the projected capacity of Gigafactory for 2020. The factory is by no means finished and currently behind schedule. The bloomberg article I linked to compares the projected capacity of Gigafactory with the projected capacity of the new Chinese factories that, too, are currently in production and are ready at about the same time.
Just look how how not one press release of Tesla lists current capacity of Gigafactory.
What you describe is amazing, a testament to Tesla, but you seem to be trying to knock Tesla down by stating it.
The point I'm trying to make: Tesla doesn't seem to have a big advantage with Gigafactory, as there is plenty of worlwide production capacity other car companies could buy from. And that third party capacity grows faster.
The i8 is a fantasic looking car, and along with the Model S was the first Hybrid / Electric car that actually looked good.
The Model 3 has show that it's perfectly possible to make a good looking $30-40k car.
So why did BMW decide to build such a different looking car from the i8? They could have gone with a smaller version of the i8 (again similar to Model S vs Model 3) which would have been pretty awesome.
> "What we know from research is that people that drive a car like that want to make a statement, they want to show that they choose a different way of mobility. It’s not the ordinary steel car with an exhaust pipe.” [0]
- BMW CEO (America)
So did you really want to make a statement, or do you just close your eyes until you get in the car (it looks pretty nice on the inside)?
[0]: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-electric-bmw-i3-looks...
It's really nice inside, fun to drive and the outer design grows on you in time. Not so much though. I know it's ugly I just don't care much anymore.
I think BMW is using this as a beta test to see their research in real world, collect data, complaints etc until they go all in with their mainstream models. I bet they can't scale the production, not yet anyway. And they'd not want to anger the dealer network with a low maintenance vehicle selling in high volumes. So it's ugly. Looks like a hobby to ensure that it only sells to the people who either wants to make a statement or goes "fuck it I want an EV", which would be me.
On the other hand, Toyota and Honda have shown little or no interests in EV commitments (yes Toyota has popular Prius but any new developments on that front?) They are actually betting big on Hydrogen fuel cell technologies which costs too high and too much safely concern at the status quo. With a more aggressive EV lineup, Nissan has a better chance to be the new Japanese (technically a Franco-Japanese joint ownership) auto industry leader, in fact, they just edged out VW and became world's #1 in terms of sales number in the recent quarters. [1]
[1]: http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/28/news/renault-nissan-sales-vo...
Why is it a shadow to what it once was?
With around 5M cars every year (8M together with Kia), Hyundai produces more cars than Mercedes (2M) and BMW (2M) combined. It's hardly a smaller player. Hyundai/Kia is actually the 4th largest in the world, only some 25% smaller than VW and Toyota (10M each).
Their tech is not the cars themselves as much as the robots/software building those cars, so they have slowly moved from being car companies to robotics/tech companies. They build computers with wheels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa5_tudyAF8
While the Americans do have a taste for disruption, these Germans have a taste for getting things done well.
The wise thing to do is collaborate, which I hope we'll end up doing sooner or later despite all the barriers that some politicians are trying to raise between us.
Thus, i am completely sure they are working heavily on a purpose-built Electric car, and that it will only be released when they feel it meets their high standards.
Tesla's business model follows the idea that electric cars are just giant battery packs sold in nice wrappers with some software thrown on top to drive the thing. Therefore the only way to make money is to enjoy healthy margins on battery packs and software features - the battery pack itself is commoditized.
Does Mercedes have an "in" or any significant buying power in lithium-ion market? If not lithium-ion, do they have a significant R&D investment in any other fields (fuel cells, hydrogen)? Do they have any significant investment into self-driving? They seem to have outsourced that to Uber https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2017/02/02/uber-me... If not self-driving, are there any other software features peculiar to Mercedes vehicles that make them stand out of the crowd?
What are then the significant cost advantages that will allow Mercedes to throw in the luxury salons it's known for and still meet the market's price point? Seems like they're destined to produce either another eGolf (83 mile range, affordable, but next to zero sales) or BMW i7 ($135,700 base).