Netflix is $20B in debt. Can it keep borrowing its way to success?
latimes.com
latimes.com
The remainder of their "debt" as the article lays it out is in Streaming Content Obligations and is not debt as you and I would think about it. Yes, it is contractually committed; however, unlike debt, they likely can default on their obligations and the only recourse would be a lawsuit for either damages or specific performance. (There is also no interest payment - as interest expense on $15.7 billion would be significant relative to their current debt burden.)
Compared to true debt instruments, which carry covenants that allow the debtholders to push the company into bankruptcy, the streaming content obligations very likely do not have any such ability to do so. (From what I can tell, the cross-default clauses in their debt instruments do not trigger in the event that they do not fulfill their streaming content obligations.)
Whenever I read about a software company needing that kind of money though, I often wonder why... Especially when I also hear stories about companies like Whatsapp and Instagram being able to scale their businesses to hundreds of millions of users using very small engineering teams and advertising budgets.
I've had a recurring thoughts that maybe big tech companies are conspiring together to hire as many software engineers as possible to make sure that those engineers don't have any time to build competing products. Software engineering talent is thus an artificially created scarcity. If that's the case then I don't think that is sustainable.
very diferent business models Netflix is probably spending Billions on creating original content.
The numbers are from Netflix's QE reports [1].
I don't know exactly where Google Finance gets the information, but IMO it's always better to get the data close to the source :)
I think if you ask most employed software engineers if they'd quit their jobs because of an opportunity to develop their own ideas, you'd hear a resounding "yes". Considering most developers I know are crafty people who don't care about "career ranks", if big companies did this they'd just hurt themselves by giving developers the funds to pursue their ideas in the future.
Netflix is a software company just as much as Tesla is a software company. You realise Netflix pays billions each year in licensing fees and production costs for originals?
Source, most recent NFLX 10-K, page 16.
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4903229026x0xS16...
Gross Income is Revenue minus Direct Costs, while Net income is Revenue minus All Costs
If you want to see their debt, look at the balance sheet and see "Total Liabilities".
Investor gives you money for guaranteed say in your business strategy. He may get some interest on his investment or not, no guarantee.
Banker gives debt for guaranteed interest and may get something to say in your company but usually not.
I'm curious, it seems counterintuitive, with debt you don't have to give up a part of your company or lose any control.
And at the same time an investor could also push you into bankruptcy by suggesting, supporting or blocking certain decisions.
It's like knight and bishop in chess. True, they work differently, but they are all just pieces on the same board, used in the same game to achieve the same goal.
I have no clue on the metrics of Netflix, but if spending $50 or $100m on a show gets you an added $3m in MRR then it's clearly worth it for them, since they're trading at a p/e ratio of 225.
Either they become so profitable they can repay the debt, or their market cap increases significantly + can raise additional capital from share sales at some point (at obscene valuations, I might add, but then again they seem to have been performing) and repay the debt.
Then again, I have no clue how much each show adds in MRR. It could very well be much less than $3m MRR.
But there's pretty much no alternative to developing your own content -- without it Netflix wouldn't be where it is today. Requires a ton of capital though.
To save people some time, here's a 23 second long explanation of why having debt is bad. In short, it takes priority over other obligations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XGAmPRxV48
Though god knows where that 20 billion debt in the article actually comes from...
They have consistently doubled sales and production every 18 months or so since they began selling cars, and have orders on the books showing at least as much growth for the next several years.
What "status" do you think Tesla has that makes them a target for creditors? You think Deutsche Bank just thinks Elon Musk is cool and hip?
The status of super popular by huge volumes of people. So in essence yes because he is so cool, hip, and also because he creates/thinks of things that appeal to the mass, and people cannot stop talking about it on birthday parties and events alike.
disclaimer, i drive a 20 yo toyota and own nothing of tesla.
Did you mean you revoked and it still asked, or it asked, and you revoked?
I had the impression the company was essentially working as a street sweeper with a 20 million pound credit card limit.
These documents https://ir.netflix.com/results.cfm show it is picking up 2.5 billion a quarter.
I am pretty speechless.
Enough people like Netflix's originals to keep them from losing paying customers as licensed content flees, so it seems like a wise investment.
I remember when, if you wanted to watch a film, you would drive to Blockbuster and rent it, and you had a couple of nights to watch it or the fees would start racking up - and their selection was never all that great, and the availability was limited to how many DVDs or videos they physically had. If you wanted to watch a TV series, you'd buy the boxset - and before DVDs, Friends took up about four feet of your bookshelf.
Sure, I've seen a bit of a movement lately from Netflix to Amazon Prime, but seriously, what we have right now in 2017 is so miraculously much better than what we had ten years ago (when I had a LoveFilm account and had to rely on films being sent through the post - which seems oddly even more antiquated now than Blockbuster does, frankly), that to describe it as "crap" and "garbage" just seems crazy to me.
Nothing can please me because I am intelligent advanced than the rest of the crowd.
Instead acting like whiny baby. The suggestion that Netflix get rid of scale rating is pure conspiracy, without any evidence to back it up.
Reminders:
1. Youtube Red: 10 dollars
2. HBO Now: 15 dollars
3. Amazon Prime: 9 dollars
4. Youtube TV: 35 dollars
5. Watch a movie: 10 dollars on average.
Maybe the OP is suggesting piracy? That is the only way I could bring out of my mind for cheaper price for any (relatively) well produced content.
This has already happened, BTW, and a quick search would have shown you that, but I'm sure you were much too busy writing up your personal insults above to do any research.
https://deadline.com/2017/04/netflix-discontinues-star-ratin... http://ew.com/tv/2017/03/16/netflix-star-ratings/ http://www.businessinsider.com/why-netflix-replaced-its-5-st...
I can't see myself giving up piracy just yet, but I would love it if streaming services cut the crap and improve their service.
With piracy it's still to this day more usable in the sense that you can back up all downloads to a private kodi-server (or similar), and have a single access-point.
Question: Does anyone on HN know about any ways to consolidate either music or video-content across multiple providers?
YouView in the UK was the first I saw.
Now Fire TVs from Amazon display titles from apps (e.g. Netflix and a bunch of others I don't use) as clearly as first-party items. There'll be a square for House of Cards right next to American Gods.
It will be interesting to see the shakeout in the industry because I doubt it can sustain all these new costs. People bemoaned to cost of cable but its quickly becoming obvious that you can exceed it by having to hit so many subscription services.
One alternative is to use a service like HBOGo, record the seasons of the show you want and unsubscribe all in one month. While this might not be good for some who want to be current right now it can save substantial money when you only want one show.
And the parent post mentioned kids and Paw Patrol. You don't have to pay for that: youtube.com/tvokids has Paw Patrol plus my 2 kids' favorite shows: Dino Dana & Odd Squad. (Seriously, Odd Squad is awesome, I enjoy it too).
We're lucky enough to live in Ontario Canada where TVO comes over the air, but I think PBS also has a great selection. TVO runs kids programming continuously until 7PM (and then it's kids friendly nature shows until bedtime).
I think he's debating this part. Frankly, most of TV is mind-rotting crap.
I see. I can't criticize a service in a way you dislike without having a sense of entitlement. I'll keep that in mind.
I switched from Torrents to Netflix simply because it was worth it as a product. With the current state of the library I seriously consider switching back full-time.
First, the movie library in my country is very weak.
Second, the TV library is becoming filled so fast with so much crap that I don't even know what to watch.
Selecting the right show has become such a massive chore that I don't even try anymore. There is no way to "preview" a show (as I would on regular TV if I was just browsing around). I truly feel paralysis by analysis when I open my Netflix app.
Part of me wants to go back to old cable days. It was just so much more convenient to watch TV. Switch on, flip channels, catch something you like. Follow-up if you loved it, otherwise forget it.
With Netflix, the fact that I have to make a choice from its unending supply of mediocre shows makes watching anything harder.
Netflix seriously needs some sort of a radio-like, "always on" option that I can just put on my TV when I feel like watching something
The biggest UX issue, IMO, is getting the channel surfing UX perfect. It must not show buffering or loading but an instant change between shows as I flip through. That's so much harder with digital I can't think of the last time I felt something pull off something as good as the analog.
But yes this would be a HUGE help with my show selection as well.
Keep 100mb of cache, perhaps 10 shows, 10mb each, potentially overcompressed, as audio is the key. All starting at interesting place, not at intro.
It's not always easy to transition an analog UX over to digital and not have it appear slower or worse.
Only the cable company can support channel-surfing on such underpowered set-top-boxes, because only the cable company gets the bandwidth to continually stream a whole lineup of shows independent of who is watching them.
That said a few years back I would watch way more and exhausted what appealed to me in Netflix's catalog, as it sounds you have.
I think the idea is you just gotta compare what else costs $10 bucks. Um lunch, maybe.
So if you have realistic expectations for what you get for $10 bucks and don't watch "too much" TV, it's perfect.
It's quite interesting given that they organized a huge machine learning competition just for that.
But having the broadcasters lunch on its lips it is now trying to copy the studios at their own game - creating high quality must watch content.
I think that's the wrong game.
One of my favourite discoveries on Netflix was "chaos on the bridge" where Shatner narrated a documentary on the first few years of Star Trek NG. It was fun, had almost zero cost apart from some talking heads and the researcher time.
A similar one on Atari, and the rise of Compaq all made me think that documentaries would be the new magazines - something for everyone's interest and dirt cheap to make - and with not much skill will eat up 50 mins of my time as easily as a GoT episode
Just wondering if they are not getting above themselves?
So the solution is that the internet figures out how to do (micro) payments easily.
And that creates less vendor lockin, more competition on content.
Nah, but they can get a bigger payment by negotiating exclusivity.
Under such a scenario, I don't quite see why N belongs with the other big kids of F-A-A-N-G.
Its long term success is suspect to me, debt or not.
No, they're not. They're selling a service that allows you to rent content and have it stream to you instantly. The content library is what attracts people, of course, but their core business is selling the service.
"Unless we went back to the big studio era when talent was locked up with multi year contracts"
Erm, they already produce Netflix Originals, which are exclusively locked up on there (and their competitors all do the same thing). How does that differ from your suggestion?
"nothing can stop a Hulu from poaching a great show runner from NFLX"
...and nothing can stop Netflix from getting the licence to a show that used to be on Hulu. Also nothing to stop them both licencing the same show at the same time.
"Its long term success is suspect to me, debt or not."
Just Netflix, or do you also think that Hulu, Mubi, Filmstruck, etc. are all doomed as well? (I left Amazon out because obviously Prime streaming obviously isn't their core market) If just Netflix, what differs in your view that makes them more vulnerable to their competition?
Netflix is trafficking in a commodity over which it cannot have monopolistic control. Take, for example, your own instance - licensing shows which used to be on Hulu.
Producing originals isn't something only NFLX has the expertise to do. AMC was home to some of the best shows of this century. No monopoly for NFLX there.
For NFLX to be spoken of at the same level as FB, Goog, and Amazon, I'd have thought they had an insurmountable moat - Social in the case of FB, search relevance for GOOG, and 2-day fulfillment for AMZN. When I don't see a monopoly, I start to wonder why NFLX is so loved by Wall Street and not treated as a commodity like any other content channel is.
I suspect NFLX will end up being just another dividend paying stock like a utility. That's not a failure at all but it isn't ever going to justify being gushed about along with the other companies in FAANG.
Back to your point about a service which lets me rent content - that would be true if they were truly a content aggregator which lets anyone including Hulu serve content to renters and kept a haircut for themselves. Amazon's Marketplace is a great example of service which is designed purely to act as a platform for 1st and 3rd party vendors. Obviously, right now, NFLX isn't interested in this.
You also didn't answer my point - if Netflix's model is doomed, why only them? You seem to avoid the idea that the entire sector runs on the same models, so what is Netflix not doing to protect themselves that Hulu, etc. are doing?
I can't speak for Wall Street as I really don't care about that side of things. You do seem to have a massive crush for them over their competitors, though, I'm just curious why that is.
"Netflix is trafficking in a commodity over which it cannot have monopolistic control"
So are a lot of businesses, online and offline. Especially service providers that run using someone else's content/platform. So what?
I did initially question their path to success but I later made it clear that I saw them becoming dividend paying, slow moving utility type companies. I said that same thing in multiple ways in my reply to you.
The competitors like HBO or Hulu are privately held and are therefore less susceptible to market sentiment turning against them.
(Also, I may be wrong about this but your tone sound antagonistic to me. Please don't impute motives like "crush for them over their competitors." Not only do I not know what you mean by it, I really don't feel like engaging with anyone who talks like this.)
The same can not be said for non-Netflix content : large chunks are missing
Also, Netflix conflates its worldwide streaming exclusives, its exclusive shows from other studios, as well as the shows it produces in its own studios under the same, Originals brand.
I also hate the suggestions and that I can't edit them and ban them. I don't know why it bothers me less on the computer with say YouTube. possibly because I can open YouTube links in an incognito window when I don't want it to be part of my profile.
Let's say some show that stars some actor I detest for whatever reason , or some show I detest because of what it's preaching. It will be the first thing I see on my large TV every time I turn it on.
Imagine if every time you turned on your TV you were present with a picture of your ex with whom you had a bad breakup and no way to take it off the TV except to wait for Netflix to stop recommending it. I get that type feeling from almost no where else.
Needless to say I canceled my account.
Let me point out that a video store telling someone what videos you rented was outlawed
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_Privacy_Protection_Act
In other words, I'm not the only person who thinks others shouldn't be able to know your video watching history.
I'd personally like to see it outlawed that sharing a profile of your video watching history also be outlawed. In other words, while the law above is about the actual movies I don't want Netflix (or any other company) to be able to share even the type of movie. It's one thing for Netflix to use that data to recommend movies. It's another for Netflix to be able to sell a profile of me (likes action movies) or likes (likes sexploitation movies) or (likes movies with LGBT themes).
That last one I think really makes the point clear. Netflix should not be able to out you to other companies and that means it should be illegal for them to share your profile even if it doesn't include your actual watching history.
I'd argue the same should be true for Google. They should probably be allowed to profile you and then let advertises say "I would like to target my ads to people who fit profiles X, Y, and Z" but Google should not be allowed to share that profile outside of Google.
This bothers me way more on YouTube because all the thumbnails are just people pulling "The YouTube Face" because its a form of clickbait that works well with kids.
Watch one video about PCs and YT will spam your recommendations with Linus Tech Tips pulling childish faces till the end of time. Same goes for Videogames and PewDiePie, Minecrafters or whatever.
Blocking the users has no effect on the algorithm.
If you thumb down a suggestion it will usually disappear from the suggestions list. Also, if you keep getting suggestions based on something watched that you didn't like, you can edit you viewing history and remove it.
I'm all for DRM-free purchases, but you're never going to get DRM-free rentals.
Personally I hate the restrictions such as "4K only on Kaby Lake with Edge etc" and I downgraded my subscription because of it.