You have no idea about the drama that occurs to get placement in a WAP deck. So many stakeholders, so little space, and everyone firmly believes their priority should have top billing. Cutting a deal with ANY telco is a herculean feat.
My prediction (and hope) is it ushers an era where consumers expect to have the ability to install any application they want on their mobile device, without having to go through their carrier to do so. I think carriers will start to lose that power and Apple will drive the change.
The best solution is still to stay off deck in the sense of offering a WAP-based web application rather than something that is installed. But this obviously wont work for some type of applications (Loopt is one of them). Loopt is doing great though, I am excited about their success.
Loopt is in a position to be on the cusp, with a leg-up over all the new comers BECAUSE they wrangled the WAP deck before the turnover.
Admob, one of the largest mobile ad network has a monthly reach of 50 million unique users, that's about the size of one of the largest carriers in the world.
I'm certain that the concept of "Carrier WAP Deck" will not grow in the same pace as the open mobile web....
Congrats to Loopt! :)
Never meant to imply that getting into YC was like a silver-spoon, charmed-type experience for business success. When I said "Loopt", I meant Sam and his co-founders. I think we could see Loopt in MSM (Time magazine).
(Ntw, I don't know a lot about Sam personally, and I am not basing this on PG's judgement of Sam either.)