Ask HN: What are some indicators that a company will have an IPO or exit?
Are there quantifiable numbers that can say whether a start-up or a company is doing well and will have successful IPO or exit in the near future?
In terms of raw numbers, there's not as clear a thing - I've been in companies that were acquired for doing really well, and others that might not have been able to pay payroll in a month.
If a company is heading towards an IPO, they MUST already have a CFO in place, probably 3-5 years in advance. While there are financial systems required, there are practices, reports, etc etc that require day after day, month after month, and quarter after quarter monitoring. It's not something that can just be "cleaned up" at the last minute.
Profitability is not a hard requirement but certainly helps.
The "magic number" used to be $100MM ARR but that doesn't appear to be the case anymore. I'd wager this is in part because of the increased private/VC valuations the last few years.
Strong growth is good. Strong growth among the more profitable product lines is even better. Margins should be high, potentially increasing as the cost of delivering the product goes down. If the team can put $X into Sales and Marketing and get 3-5X revenue out, that's a good sign.
If you can determine LTV, CAC, and churn, those are GREAT indicators but unless you're senior management, odds are you won't see those.
Regardless, it is NOT something you can bet on because even if it does happen, it can be YEARS down the line and if you're an insider, there are complex rules on when you can do or say what.
A Reverse Take-Over is where a company pays for a shell corp that is listed on a public exchange and the shell officially "takes over" the company, then changes it's name to that of the "purchased" company, which is a great shortcut to a public offering.
But the need for a CFO is the same, the books have to follow the standard public process.
After 7-12 years in VCs will want to get their money out to pay out their LPs. Around this time they will start pressuring management to find a buyer or prepare for an IPO. Though this pressure depends a lot on the company's financial situation and how willing the VCs are to wait for an exit.
It's not the best indicator but it still is one.
This is probably the top indicator IMHO.
To quote the former CFO of Blekko, "Every month we have a number of dollars in the bank, that number is bigger than last month, 'Bueno', its smaller than last month 'No Bueno.'"
Easy and quantifiable.
Also, if the company is losing money, and each month the bank balance goes down, divide the rate of loss by the balance, at the zero intercept the company will 'exit'.
Also easy and quantifiable.
Between those two 'easy' versions, lays the challenge. But for your question which included the caveat "... in the near future" only the easy ones apply.
- A cleanup of administrative processes such as HR. Standardisation of leave, expenses, release of a overly-detailed employee handbook, change of employment contracts. Exec HR contingency plans, documented reporting lines. Beyond HR, compliance may also be given more attention than usual.
- Removal of minor shareholders, cleaning up equity structure, if it was not done exceptionally well from the beginning.
- A PR push with a common focussed narrative on the companies aims & growth. Following this, announcements of comparatively minor things that support it. Lots of quotes from key management. However, as you draw closer to d-day there will be a quiet period where no information will be released as part of the process.
- Some key execs removing themselves from day to day ops while its ongoing. Guarded language during announcements as mentioned previously, especially in the final stages.
There are presumably more indicators based on the companies performance, investors and the market in general, but I think it would be guesswork without being in the loop on their corporate strategy.
1) Game changing technology. These are very hard to measure, especially from the outside. You have to ask yourself, "Is this technology for real?" and "Could a large company monetize this?" This is what's happening in the autonomous car market. Let's step aside from this.
2) Companies that are growing well and fast on their own. In this case there are 3 metrics that matter: Revenue, Revenue Growth (new business minus churn) and Margins. Revenue is the base for valuation, and Growth and Margins determines the multiple. A weak rule of thumb that answers your question is that once a SaaS business hits 50mm in ARR, Growth Plus Margins should equal 50%. (It's ok to lose 10% of revenue in margins if you're growing 50% per year. If you're only growing 20% per year, you should have 30% profitability.) If it has this it's trending towards a positive exit.
Three caveats:
1) In case 2, if the company has external venture money, they are more likely to exit. (The VC funds need to return money to investors) If they are self-funded, they can stay private much longer.
2) Very few companies pull off the high multiple exit or IPO. It is hard to maintain growth, and hard to eventually turn a profit when you are growing fast.
3) There are a small subset of VC firms and specific VC partners with disproportionately outsized success. In the absence of other information, an investment by them is a good signal. (But smart money won't help a bad business)
You'd have to chain all those together to answer your question as posed.
Generally, look for $100M+ revs, strong growth, institutional investors, and a reasonably-new CFO with a track record in sales/IPOs.
I'm in Australia though.
The scale of the business has to be reasonably large. Market cap in at least 8 figures.
I'll just name a couple of recently or semi recently IPOed companies of varying reputations that do not turn a profit. All are way above 8 figure market caps. Are you sure you didn't mean 9 figures or at least closing in on 9 figures.
- New Relic
- Atlassian
- ServiceNow
- WorkDay
- Splunk
- Box
- Godaddy
Do you think it should still be included with an asterisk or not included? I think an asterisk with an explanation would've been best.
- Okta
- Wix
- Shopify
- Square
- Yext
- RingCentral
- Zillow
- LogMeIn
- Netsuite
- Trivago (though now majority owned by Expedia)
- Youku (Chinese tube site)
- Tableau
- FireEye
- Pablo Alto Networks
- Proofpoint
- Verint
- Imperva