Got lazy with the screenshot from compete, sorry about that.
I might be wrong, but it seems like Posterous users are more likely to use custom domains--Tumblr is more of a social network, so it makes more sense to be on a subdomain of tumblr.com (just as your facebook and twitter pages are on facebook.com and twitter.com). Posterous is more for stand-alone blogging, so having it be on your own domain makes sense.
Your right on the data accuracy.
http://www.quantcast.com/profile/embed?img=http://www.quantc...