The man who helped Facebook beat Snapchat
cnbc.com
cnbc.com
Spiegel was explicitly against the concept of "accumulative" profiles.[1] The accumulative feature they rolled out last year was Memories, a private gallery that only the user could see and show to people in person. And he was explicitly against making it easy to add tons of friends on Snapchat. He wanted it to be about your "seven most important people."[2]
Well, turns out people do in fact like their Instagram accumulative profiles to store and share highlights with their followers. And it turns out people like getting engagement and adulation from a broader network of followers.
So, as much as I dislike the crass copying that Instagram/Weil did and his attempt to pass it off as just a "format" -- that's bullshit, they copied vast aspects of Snapchat stories and messaging.. calling it a "format" is naked intellectual dishonesty. I noticed Weil back in the Twitter days and this intellectual dishonesty makes me respect him less.
But Snapchat also did not make the right strategic product decisions here. Spiegel, to his credit, went with a bold vision and strategic analysis about what people want. Turns out it was just wrong with respect to how people want to engage with and present their experiences to a broader set of friends.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykGXIQAHLnA
[2] https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/17/technology/snapchat-ipo-v...
I think Snap is in deep trouble but I have no problem with how they handled their IPO. They got a huge influx of cash and had to give up basically nothing for it. That cash is why they have a shot the next 4 years. The market dynamics were never in their favor but they really did make the most of it.
Snapchat is very different, however. Every day has dozens of conversations with people or groups full of silliness and poking fun. It's like being with your friends in person. I would never post a Snap of myself dancing with a hotdog, or a love portrait with one on my House of Curry shots on Instagram, or have a competition with someone posting our grocery receipts trying for a certain number, or send a cute good night sticker, but it's all normal in Snapchat.
If it gets a laugh and some happy communication out of your friends it feels worth it in a way Instagram doesn't.
Disclaimer: I work for Snap, but the views and opinions offered here do not necessarily represent those of any past, current, or future institution and/or employer :)
What would you have Facebook do? "Well, darn. I guess we can't implement those features, Snapchat beat us to it! Time to just lay over and let them churn our users." This is not how any rational company works, and every major tech company has copied others many times.
Not when you are leveraging monopoly power to gain market share somewhere else. This kind of capitalism tends to degenerate.
Or that it is better for public interest that people prop up companies with multi billion dollar valuations on the basis of trivially copy-able features?
It is harmful to the public interest to allow a company to use its monopoly status as leverage to monopolize other markets. Facebook is competing for image messaging in the same sense that Lance Armstrong was competing in the tour de france.
Monopoly is the degenerate case of capitalism, and this kind of behavior by monopolies is how the degeneracy reproduces.
The US does not have moral rights in IP, so you better conduct your business in a way that doesn't rely on their mere existence.
Almost every companies copies in some form or fashion - you'd be hard pressed to find one that doesn't - but few really do it well. I would argue that Instagram did it very well and you can see it in the success. The product is well designed, extremely polished, is far more stable, is more engaging (for me), and more complete in my opinion.
I don't think your intended criticism has any value in the real world. It's a tired argument and deeply flawed.
I think the reverse argument is a stronger one. That is to say that SnapChat's core innovations that got them this far were closer to a commodity than is ideal for a business like theirs. This is something that SnapChat acknowledges in their own S1.
What I think investors didn't see or expect is: * The extent to which the SnapChat feature-set was a commodity in a world where several other similar friendship and interest graphs exist. * The speed and potency with which competitors like Facebook would attempt to compete. I think Facebook's strategy was far more successful than people were prepared for and that's reflected somewhat in the SnapChat stock price swings and analyst sentiment swings.
I don't believe copying was inevitable either. Snap's main appeal at that time -- disappearing content -- was seen as completely anathema to FB's practice data hoarding. And adding features of any sort risks alienating the current user base. I confess that as a casual Instagram user, and a non-Snapchat user, I'm completely lost with all the new features and end points to what was a straightforward photo app.
Big deal.
I saw a funny tweet that someone just wrote "A fear" than an image of Twitter print, of the mobile version, with small spheres on the top (like the ones suddenly appeared on Instagram), so I realized that it's not just me that think Instagram got worse with this feature. And the design solution they found, really annoys me. Now we have this on all Facebook products (WhatsApp and Facebook itself).
Talking about the software identity, I don't remember successful products that tries to do more than one thing. I think it's wrong, but it's apparently working, so I am observing and learning.
I shared the same friend (mostly) list between Snap and Instagram and with the introduction of stories my Snap use dropped to basically zero. Instagram is a one stop shop for the accumulative feed, stories, and video DMs. No need to switch apps.
That said, I didn't get a ton of direct messages on Snapchat, probably because I'm older and the kind of 1-1 communication I saw teens doing on Snap isn't as common for my age group, however that feature is there in IG.
I might be an outlier, though I don't think I am judging by the numbers.
On a more crass note, from the business perspective, Instagram is in a much better ad position than Snap because it's really easy to buy ad space. Not only that it's going to be easier to develop content for AR filters on Instagram because they have an actual developer pathway for that.
As far as I can tell, Snap highly curates all broadcast content and advertising, and there is no third party developer support.
Not sure why anyone wouldn't see how bad that is - if anything Snap should have learned from Twitter that third part devs are core to longevity.
Can you explain the appeal?
There is an argument that says that large companies are better at execution, and so will just reap the rewards of other people's ideas, but I think that big companies are actually bad at execution and they are currently benefiting far more from the current legal regime.
So, all in all, we should abolish all patent law.
Snapchat can offer things facebook can't like privacy and trust that will become increasely important if snapchat can change the conversation through features it will put facebook in a difficult position.
Instagram users as a cohort are the worst audience for advertising. Low conversions, lots of impressions and just all around less profitable than the exact same ad on Facebook itself.
Even music acts that would seem to be a tailor made product for Instragram – still, in my anecdotal experience, a complete waste of money. Instagram the “thing” might be a fun product, but Instagram as a provider of cost-effective advertising, no way.
On the coke bit, coke actually does measure the RoI on its TV using a mix of brand track studies and marketing mix modelling. I know this because I have worked with agencies that Coca-Cola engages to do both and is really scientific and serious about it.
The targeting is incredibly good too. I've discovered random brands on Instagram that I've bought clothing from which I never would have expected to do. I would never consider such a thing if I see the same kind of advertising on Facebook or Twitter for example.
Instagram is extremely trendy right now, possibly far more than in the past when it was smaller.
There's a saying in Hindi - you need brains to copy well.
Facebook just had to add features.
People prefer Gucci over Versace, North Face over Patagonia etc.
Inevitably, the same will be true for Facebook vs Snapchat. Snapchat will likely prevail in a way because the "brand" ecosystem, talent pool(pr, actors, producers etc.) are concentrated largely in Los Angeles due to the existing Hollywood system.
Proximity to the talent might not have much to do with it, but I imagine Snapchat has been developing those relationships for a while.
As Facebook formally kills off Snapchat in the next few years, it's a curious problem of which companies will supply the ammunition to go after Facebook for anti-trust abuse. Said companies will be the biggest motivating factor for the US Government to act, their prompting will drive the case.
Given the scale we're talking about now (Facebook is already more profitable non-inflation adjusted than what Microsoft was at the height of its power; and they might double their profit in a few years up to $20 billion before any government action would come through). I would expect companies to begin lining up with their hands out. Twitter as one example, stands to easily land maybe $5 billion or more as compensation for being one of the few survivors of Facebook's social monopoly. Something that has changed a lot in the last 20 years, corporate fines & costs of negative legal outcomes have skyrocketed in practically every industry. Google's worsening EU disaster is just the latest example of that. Facebook will need tens of billions of dollars set aside for settling with governmental entities and competitors (even semi-dead competitors like MySpace - its owners will show up with their hands out for a settlement, and they'll definitely get some crumbs as Facebook will settle just to move on as the lawsuits stack high after the blood hits the water).
As the world witnesses Facebook intentionally kill off Snapchat by leveraging its monopoly in nearly every way it can, there are going to be few people remaining in the Facebook defender camp as the number of major social players in the US & EU markets drifts toward just a few small competitors left standing. Snapchat better have been worth it, as I can assure you that crushing Netscape wasn't worth what it cost Microsoft.
As a nit, what's the point of using a non-inflation adjusted comparison? You wouldn't say have compared Facebook to Standard Oil :).
It turns out that 1998 to today is only a 50% change according to CPI [1] and MSFT had $4.5B in net income for FY 1998 [2]. So your point still stands given Facebook's massive ~$10B FY2016 net income [3].
[1] https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm [2] https://www.microsoft.com/investor/reports/ar98/fins.htm [3] https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/...
Your comment had the desired (ultimate) effect though: I really haven't been watching how much cash Facebook has been generating, and it's amazing to compare it to Microsoft at peak monopoly.
In fact it enhances the negative view of the monopoly company in question as a predator looking to dominate. That's how it'll be played in the press, it's how it'll be spun by competitors and by the government entities. If you go back and read about Microsoft's interactions with Netscape (Marc Andreessen provided a key piece of evidence of Microsoft's predatory behavior by taking notes in said meeting/s), you'll find that their efforts to 'buy or bury' Netscape was entirely relevant as the case went on as evidence of a sort of character portrayal the government was spinning of Microsoft as a company hell-bent on dominance (ie seeking to limit consumer choice to enhance their market power; which is perhaps how it'll be spun against Facebook - by wiping out Snapchat, Facebook can plausibly raise its ad prices, as consumers will supposedly have fewer social destinations, and advertisers will have fewer platforms competing for their marketing dollars, etc etc and so on; it doesn't matter if one agrees with this premise, it's exactly the sort of slightly subjective argument (that happens to be kinda hard to prove and kinda hard to disprove) that will be used by the government).
The fact that the offer was perhaps high at the time, will also be spun as proof that very clearly Facebook has too much power, that they are deriving such immense profit from their social monopoly that they can afford to overpay to sustain that monopoly. You see, anti-trust is an intentionally subjective field of law. It was designed to be vague, it enables them to go after you for nearly any perceived abuse of market power (with a more recent high-tilt toward consumer well-being, but back in reality the Microsoft case was overwhelmingly about powerful, rich competitors crying foul).
What exactly did it cost them? Last I checked they never broke up and won their appeal in Federal court [1]:
The case found its way to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, which rejected Jackson's remedy and accused him of unethical conduct after it was revealed he had private conversations with reporters about the trial while it was still ongoing. Microsoft would settle the case with the Department of Justice in November of 2001 by agreeing to make it easier for Microsoft's competitors to get their software more closely integrated with the Windows operating system
Their settlement has basically nothing to do with why they aren't dominant today - only top 5 - they missed out on mobile to Apple/Google.
What exactly did it cost them?
Microsoft became irrelevant when the web took off, and the web took off partly because Microsoft made it free to crush Netscape. They dropped the price of browsers to zero.
I'm disgusted by the choice of words here. One company gained an advantage over there other in a market, big deal! They're competing businesses and eventually one will up the other but there's no point in saying "down to its knees"
It's a portrait. They do the same thing to most dominant companies once they grow out of the up-and-coming phase. Amazon for example is starting to get deluged by such press coverage; Google has been the subject of it for years; and of course Microsoft went through a solid decade or more of it. Once upon a time, Walmart was portrayed as a cute & fuzzy hayseed retailer just looking to save the good 'ol consumer a buck or two.
All media is sadly going this way, the argument could also be made that link bait titles are partly responsible for Trump's popularity. ALL media is sadly going this way. If you think Fox or Drudge or whatever are above these sad tactics, look closer.
I'd like to ask the bigger question of, how do we fight/protect agains this?
> With each passing year, more and more facets of popular culture become something like wrestling: a stage-managed “reality” in which scripted stories bleed freely into real events, with the blurry line between truth and untruth seeming to heighten, not lessen, the audience’s addiction to the melodrama.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/magazine/is-everything-wr...