Looking at the raw numbers from Apple and Google (not AdMob's!), Android's supremacy is looking increasingly inevitable.

At the Droid X launch, Google claimed 160,000 activations a day, which translates to a run rate of almost 60 million devices a year. More importantly, the Android growth rate looks like an exponential curve up at this point. Google's announcements show a 60% growth in Android over the past 3 months.

In the long run, Apple simply can't match those numbers. Their install base will give them the lead for another year, and their total unit sales will continue to grow, but the marketshare future looks like it belongs to Android.