China Tells Carriers to Block Access to Personal VPNs by February
bloomberg.com
bloomberg.com
If, however, you had the will and ability to use VPN software, the government usually turned a blind eye. Afterall, it was only a minority of people and they usually had a genuine need. In fact, this is what made staying in China tolerable. If this block does truly come into effect, they are essentially closing the door to the outside world.
China was a country of reasonable compromises before, but with Xi Jinping's nationalism, they are starting to think "why should we compromise at all?"
China has been trying to close their internet since after the Olympics. It isn't surprising that they would eventually succeed at it.
Access to the open Internet is becoming less and less of a necessity. "The next big thing" isn't really happening. A country like China, having developed their own industry, can safely rely on companies coming to them or developing their own alternatives. At the same time things like ddos, ransomware, money laundering, black markets, foreign influence, rumors, populism etc. is becoming more of a problem.
It's like any other technology adopted by China. They will buy or co-develop something as long as you have something to bring to the table, when you don't they will do it themselves instead.
I don't agree with the Chinese governments position nor methods, but I'm not sure their reasoning around "cyber-sovereignty" wrong.
As for how I discovered they were unblocked, I got a phone call from my Mum early in the morning after the attack (the attack happened during the Chinese night time) and went in to the office (which had the only available internet access), and one of my colleagues told me that the bbc and nytimes were no longer blocked.
Not sure how he found out they were unblocked, but he'd been there most of the night.
Then once you know one is unblocked you try them all :-)
> they "talk" to the shadowsocks vpn author to
> force him to stop working on the project.
just some side note...the author of shadowsocks vpn is "her", a girl goes by the id "clowwindy"...
This man has claimed to be the father of OSINT one day, and said that Pizzagate was spot-on the next. No one with a clue about how to conduct an investigation should have swallowed that.
That is all to say, I believe we are in very troubled times, but I don't believe we are on the verge of revolution.
I'm sure it will happen one day, and then all the broken clocks will be right.
However, there's a long history in China that determines the thinking of both the government and its people. That view is that a strong centre leads to a peaceful and prosperous China, while a weak centre leads to confusion and chaos. An Arab Spring-like event isn't as likely, there just isn't the same desire to be liberated.
No one would challenge the centre unless they were prepared to go all the way. And there's a very powerful state security apparatus ready to come down hard if they do.
I read the book a long time ago, so I might be remembering it incorrectly, but aren't all nations just "one black swan event away" from something?
The idea is that you can't predict it and only makes sense when looking back.
And the Arab Spring was in very large part a result of rising bread prices as well as being a massive failure in every way outside Tunisia.
http://voxeu.org/article/measuring-and-mis-measuring-chinese...
Unofficial indicators of Chinese GDP often suggest that Beijing’s growth figures are exaggerated. This column uses nighttime light as a proxy to estimate Chinese GDP growth. Since 2012, the authors’ estimate is never appreciably lower, and is in many years higher, than the GDP growth rate reported in the official statistics. While not ruling out the risk of future turmoil, the analysis presents few immediate indications that Chinese growth is being systematically overestimated.
you should probably contact Gordon Chang to see how you can get yourself on a similar payroll by making such claims.
This sounds like the Marxists' "eminent collapse of capitalism" or "this will be the year of Linux on the desktop" or Mao Ze-Dong's "America is a giant with clay feet".
Someday you'll be proven right. But only after being proven wrong for a million times.
What is this ultimatum and why would China actually care or do anything about it?
I'm sure that the powers-that-be in China aren't overly scared of a failed popular uprising.
Every technology company that I've come across in China has invested a great deal of effort into establishing stable VPN connections. I have seen several "VPN microservices" that act to tunnel all foreign-bound traffic out of the country. In the vacuum of mature, western technologies many Chinese copycats have popped up. I have been hoping that we would start to see more and more Chinese technology companies exporting their technology [1]. With these new legislative actions, it seems like a step in the wrong direction.
I'm struggling to come to terms with the restrictive policies that the Chinese government continually struggles to hoist over their citizens. During the midst of one of the most dramatic periods of economic development in history, the Chinese government is moving to artificial isolate themselves from the developing global economy?
[1] Strikingly: https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/striking-ly#/entity
Back in 2010, when Google chose to exit China, many argued the exact same that China is isolating itself from the outside. Such feeling is understandable from a western point of view, I mean for anyone from a western background there is simply no Internet if google/twitter/fb etc. are all unavailable. However, a bold however, 7 years after Google's exit from China, it has been proved again and again that the biggest motivation of GFW is the protectionism aiming to help domestic Internet companies - and that actually paid off pretty well.
You don't need Google/fb/twitter etc to have booming Internet/high tech economy. Look at China's social media, online payment, e-commerce, online gaming, AI, shared economy etc, did China miss out. Let me give you a bloody simple number: I didn't use any cash or bank card/credit card in the last 45 days, everything, I mean 100% everything, was paid by mobile.
This is not about some cheap nationalism - it is _all_ about how many good paying jobs can be made available in China for Chinese. It is the exact same as the Making America Great Again crap. Blocking google/fb/twitter was the first essential step to achieve that.
I'd argue that GFW created millions of experienced software engineers for China. It is the assets required for such a developing country. If the market was dominated by Google/Twitter/Fb, how many of them are willing to have their core R&D positions in China? Let's make it no mistake - as a Chinese national, the company need to get your US export license to work on any project that involves stuff like encryption or high performance computing. That export license takes ages to get and there is no guarantee to get it. To send you to the US for meetings/training, you'd be subject to the Mantis Check managed by FBI, it can take anywhere between a few months to a few years to get a 12 months US short term visa.
Now also consider how those companies do their taxes in foreign countries. How much they are going to contribute to the local economy? Just look at how other free countries are attacking their practices.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-now-off...
If you consider all these, it will be clear that Chinese were pushed to the corner to defend the chance/right to develop their country/industry. For me, it is really a choice on whether to kill China's Internet industry or not. Chinese didn't kill it, they kicked out Google/Twitter/Fb etc and build their own Baidu/Alibaba/Tencent/JD/Didi/360, that is all.
China's GDP growth has been high for 40 years. There's no possible way that the GFW created this, given that it wasn't around until about halfway through this period. Even if you say that it somehow doesn't count until the 90s, it still doesn't line up, since the GFW started out as purely political censorship and they weren't wholesale blocking foreign competitors until well into the 2000s.
I further pointed out that GFW ensured that all core Internet infrastructures used in China is designed/developed in China, that led to the creation of a Dev community with millions of experienced engineers. Do you believe that such a professional community is a huge asset for a developing country?
If you intend to give credit to the GWF for that particular thing, then by all means do so. But that is not at all what I got from your original comment, nor your first reply.
The economic development in the last decade can be safely regarded as the most dramatic period in history, it added ~40% of US GDP in that period. The Internet sector is of course one of the major driving forces for that.
> If you intend to give credit to the GWF for that particular thing, then by all means do so. But that is not at all what I got from your original comment, nor your first reply.
Sorry to get you confused but it is pretty clear to me that 1) GFW is being built/maintained as a tool for protectionism agendas, 2) it blocked most western Internet services to allow Chinese Internet sector to grow faster in the last decade, 3) with such help from the GFW, the Chinese Internet sector managed to get to where it is now and helped to fuel the economic growth in that period.
> Like it or not, the GFW helped to created the "most dramatic
> periods of economic development" in Chinese history.
Like it or not, several thousands of years ago in ancient Egypt, slavery helped to build many great pyramids -- the "most dramatic periods of economic development" in ancient Egyptian history... > You don't need Google/fb/twitter etc to have
> booming Internet/high tech economy.
But one does need Google or duckduckgo to have a blooming mind in this age...I did not know that before...thanks for sharing...
But the whole point is about a fair income distribution in a society...
If you think that as a Pharaoh, without contributing much to a society but could still get all the best things -- including the pyramids -- provided by the people in the country, by telling them that his ruling is god's will -- which does not seem to hold much truth in it...I just feel that this is not justifiable...
This is a similar thing happening in China right now -- with all the propaganda and censorship and limitation on what people could read and talk at their own will, and hence influence the way people think and reason...
If the pyramids were not built by slaves, then there were plenty of other magnificent monuments or grand palaces or great economic achievements that were the labor of masses of hard working coolies who never got what they really deserve...
I was educated in the west, with PhD from the top ranking university. I spent 12 years living in your society and do understand where you came from. The problem is you seem to be forcing your definition of freedom onto many people. You can value your free speech, your democratic system etc etc, I'd perfectly happy to respect that. However, it it seems that you refuse to even acknowledge the cultural differences widely observed. To give you a quick hint, majority vote is the preferred way in the west, but apparently Chinese and many Asian cultures value more on consensus based on compromises.
Your arguments on "propaganda and censorship" are quite rude because you are basically arguing that Chinese living in China can not figure out what is truth and what is propaganda, you are basically suggesting that Chinese as a population of 1.4B can be easily manipulated. It is also extremely funny that someone who has never ever lived in China for long term is now jumping up and down lecturing people how bad is the situation in China. Tell me how this is not the definition of arrogance!
And I am not writing this as some disrespecting westerner, but as Eastern European. Having to figure out what is truth and what is propaganda in non-free-speech environment has severely morally stunted our nations, and I can't believe some "consensus culture" can avoid that.
It is also questionable whether the so called non-free-speech environment is the same here - not judging what people can/can not do in those old USSR days as I don't know anything about it, but you can openly criticise CCP in China as long as the criticism is not coordinated, I have been doing that for ages, never got into any trouble.
> First thing first, I didn't downvote you or anyone else - because
> I simply don't have enough karma to downvote anyone.
> Please check my public profile before pointing fingers, that
> would be a much more civilised move.
I apologize if my words made you think that I was saying that you double downvoted me...I was just trying to put my observation in its context...but I did not mean you. > The problem is you seem to be forcing your definition of
> freedom onto many people. You can value your free speech,
> your democratic system etc etc, I'd perfectly happy to respect
> that. However, it it seems that you refuse to even acknowledge
> the cultural differences widely observed. To give you a quick
> hint, majority vote is the preferred way in the west, but apparently
> Chinese and many Asian cultures value more on consensus
> based on compromises.
Thanks for stating your argument in details...The meta-assumption that you are making in your argument is that there exists a general will in both western society and Chinese society -- which is equivalent to saying that there is a higher intelligent wisdom above all the western people or all the eastern people, represents their collective will and thus having a single voice that "they want democracy" or "they want totalitarian"...
This assumption is too big to discuss here, but from what I observe, many people in China are trying to get across the Great Fire Wall while another group of people (i.e. the government) are trying to forbid the first group to do so, which seems to me is hardly a consensus, not to mention any compromise...
> Your arguments on "propaganda and censorship" are quite rude
> because you are basically arguing that Chinese living in China
> can not figure out what is truth and what is propaganda,
> you are basically suggesting that Chinese as a population
> of 1.4B can be easily manipulated.
Well, I am afraid so...Or, has anyone figured out how many people starved to death during the Great Famine between 1959 to 1961, or how many students had been shot dead during the TianAnMen square protest in 1989 -- and that does not seem to be a consensus nor a compromise...And from my own experience, many young people born after 1990 in China even do not know that TianAnMen square protest and the shooting even have ever happened...And what about the dramatic increase in the number of people that have been diagnosed with lung cancer or other types of life-threatening illness as a result of the air pollution caused by profit-driven manufacturing planning?
It seems to me that you are fairly funny, and rude, to speak for 1.4 billion individuals, without a validated assumption on the very existence of "general will", without any action or even intention to obtain their opinion, while enjoying all the freedom of speech and convenience of western life, and make a speech that all the 1.4 billion individuals have a consensus based on their compromise -- but more to the fact, a self-narcissus based on other people's extraordinary sacrifice...
Totalitarian/Totalitarianism is not preferred even by the CCP, you have the Chinese Premier criticising those over regulated craps on weekly basis. To give you a quick example, the Chinese Premier spoke highly of the reform to allow business registration to be done though WeChat. I am 100% sure that you guys can not do business registration using Facebook/Twitter style social media or any other private media.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/11/c_136435928.htm
> how many people starved to death during the Great Famine between 1959 to 1961
You do realize that the recent administrations are the exact victims of those failed polices back in the 50s/60s? You do realize that the current Chinese President had his father put into jail because of those policies? Do you even know that the Chinese President himself was sent to the most rural area to work as a farmer/labour for 7 years because of those policies?
Suddenly, the victims need to be responsible for the horrible past.
> And from my own experience, many young people born after 1990 in China even do not know that TianAnMen square protest and the shooting even have ever happened...
It was highly regrettable to have those deaths, one day, the CCP will have to come clean not just to the public but to the book of history. The same can be said to the one-child policy as well. That being said, the timing should never be set/influenced by the CCP or any foreign power, it should be purely decided by Chinese. To answer your question, when most people don't even talk about the Tiananmen square incident, that is because they believe the overall progress made after the Tiananmen Square is good, CCP's explanations at that time (to ensure society stability) is acceptable.
> And what about the dramatic increase in the number of people that have been diagnosed with lung cancer or other types of life-threatening illness as a result of the air pollution caused by profit-driven manufacturing planning?
This is as silly as arguing that thousands of people got killed by flying Boeing-747 and thus it was a bad idea to develop 747.
You are free to check any respectful source you like, you can buy yourself a ticket to China and watch yourself, you'd be seeing one thing pretty consistent - Chinese are living much longer nowadays, life expectancy in the eastern coast has reached almost 80 - my home city Shanghai is already doing better than the US national average. How that was made possible? profit-driven manufacturing.
> It seems to me that you are fairly funny, and rude, to speak for 1.4 billion individuals, without a validated assumption on the very existence of "general will", without any action or even intention to obtain their opinion, while enjoying all the freedom of speech and convenience of western life, and make a speech that all the 1.4 billion individuals have a consensus based on their compromise -- but more to the fact, a self-narcissus based on other people's extraordinary sacrifice...
so just follow your system because it works so well in Arab Spring countries lately? What a joke.
> You do realize that the recent administrations are the exact victims of those failed
> polices back in the 50s/60s? You do realize that the current Chinese President
> had his father put into jail because of those policies? Do you even know that the
> Chinese President himself was sent to the most rural area to work as a
> farmer/labour for 7 years because of those policies?
> Suddenly, the victims need to be responsible for the horrible past.
I used that example only as a counter example to the statement made in your previous post, that "Chinese living in China" can "figure out what is truth and what is propaganda, and "Chinese as a population of 1.4B" cannot "be easily manipulated."Not to divert too far, I am just saying that, the propaganda and the censorship in the country made it is almost impossible to find out the truth, in many cases such as those ones that I listed in my previous posts.
There is a saying that "in today's China, the history is unknown but the future is always sure..."
Back to your question in your current post: yes, I know that Xi Jinping was persecuted during the Cultural Revolution...So was Bo Xilai, but that doesn't change Bo's apparent fondness about the Cultural Revolution style...
And, please don't mix up the Great Famine with the Cultural Revolution -- they were almost 8 or 9 years apart...and neither Xi Jinping nor Bo Xilai was much affected during the Great Famine...
> This is as silly as arguing that thousands of people
> got killed by flying Boeing-747 and thus it was a bad
> idea to develop 747.
Sometimes inappropriate analogies could misguide people's reasoning...to justify your analogy, you need to also do a cost/benefit comparison and see if the two cases are at a similar ratio or scale...And just try to live next to one of those factories in some seriously polluted areas in China for several weeks , perhaps you could have some empathy for the local people who have been living there for their entire life...
And how much compensation will they ever get?
Well, again, my original point of using this example was only to address your statement that people in China know the truth well...If that is the case, I don't think people these days, including you and me, would have too much contention about what the truth really was...
In the future, let us try not to divert from topic to topic -- then this discussion would become arguing for the purpose of arguing, instead of for the purpose of getting closer to the truth...
> so just follow your system because it works so well in
> Arab Spring countries lately? What a joke.
If you look at a broader historical picture, then do you happen to know that there was a Spring of Nations around 1848 in Europe? Just look that up...A little more knowledge about the truth won't do you harm -- and, the Spring of Nations is not a joke, it is a historic fact...==============================
If you have more counter-arguments, please list them below...I will try to come back to address them later when I find some more time...thanks...
Well, I noticed there had been a pattern for my multiple posts on this topic that, for several times, each time when a post was downvoted, it was double downvoted...
So either it was a very synchronized move by several independent minds, or more likely, it was from a same mind who operates several accounts...
Edit 1:
I personally would not mind at all that any of my posts has been downvoted -- and if the person would like to provide any reasoning for his downvoting, then that would be better...After all, the whole point is not to win over your opponent but to find some thing that is closer to the truth and justice -- if there is any...
But manipulating the visibility of other people's words by casting multiple downvotes by a same individual is sheer disgusting and does not make any sense to prove any point...as if that is a way of finding out truth and justice, then truth and justice would be equivalent to registering and manipulating more accounts than your opponents'...this reduces the human talent of reasoning to a series of steps of mechanical movement...it is a waste of his own life, as well as his audience's time...
The latter seems unlikely. You can't downvote until you've accumulated 500 karma (might even be higher now).
That means that in order for someone you replied to downvote you twice, they'd need two separate 500+ karma accounts in addition to their main account (which they wouldn't be able to use to downvote you from).
That's a lot of work just to be petty in the case someone online disagrees with you.
If multiple posts of yours are receiving multiple downvotes, then some reflection might be in order before casting aspersions elsewhere, because it's likely the posts that are problematic.
(And complaining about downvotes is almost guaranteed to get you further downvotes).
> That's a lot of work just to be petty in
> the case someone online disagrees with you.
I am really okay if someone disagrees with me and downvotes me...After all, I do not make a living based on the HN karma points in my account...But for the reason that I stated in my previous two posts, I feel I have some reason to doubt this could be an act of information manipulation from personnel funded by the Chinese government especially for that purpose...For instance, some of those manipulations are described in,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent_Party
and
https://gking.harvard.edu/files/gking/files/50c.pdf
and if there were indeed government resources behind this, multiple accounts that each has 500 karma points are nothing...
And if that was indeed the case you would also expect other replies critical of China and the Chinese government to be downvoted to a similar degree, and yet that has not happened in this thread. Why single you out in particular?
I was trying to state my observation on a downvoting pattern and some of my past readings...I am not asserting that the information manipulation here is a sure fact -- to prove that would require some analysis on a global set of data...
But if you only look at one instance, with a small set of data, and make a statement such as "why single you out in particular?", then perhaps you could ask similar questions for any jailed politic dissident in that country, like, "Xiaobo is a criminal; and why single him out in particular?"
I just don't think there is enough evidence here to reasonably kill the doubt that there could be a possibility that certain information has been manipulated for certain government's political ends...
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14743104 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14741623
And yet they don't appear to have been downvoted.
It just seems like you are creating a rather complex theory to explain the reason for your downvotes, rather than accept the more likely reason that you just made a low quality post.
> It just seems like you are creating a rather complex theory to explain the
> reason for your downvotes, rather than accept the more likely reason
> that you just made a low quality post.
you seem to be making an implicit assumption here that there is an absolute measurement for post quality...and another assumption that I was also on board with that measurement...Aren't you creating a theory to justify your own view of the world and then fit me -- not just my posts -- into that frame? And then verify that theory with a small local data set...by all means, if you want to continue with that method of reasoning and that kind of mindset, it would be okay with me...
And additionally, modern archeologists don't believe the workers constructing the pyramids were slaves as such. They were citizens working for the state. In some theories, the arrangement is arguably a form of slavery, but I think we'd usually call the arrangement serfdom, and consider it differently in a historical context.
And I downvoted your subsequent posts because I always downvote people complaining about downvotes. It's offtopic, and usually pointless.
Well, as I previously stated, that there were multiple concurrent downvotings cast to my multiple posts on this topic, all in a short period of time, and then there weren't many downvotings afterwards...this well synchronized pattern, occurring multiple times, would make one to think, there is a certain level of dependencies behind these actions (and in short, from a statistical point of view, a normal distribution can be normal only because its data are independent -- and by standard normal distribution, we could maximize our information output -- and I thought that is the goal of this forum)...
There had been known information manipulation effected by the Chinese government over many information outlets even outside that country -- so combined with my previously stated observation, I have enough reason to doubt that the coordinated downvoting is a manipulated result...even if there is only one downvote from you -- as there are more than two downvotings, without giving a single word of counter-argument, until your post....
As for the second point, either "slavery" or "serfdom" is only a term, used to describe the situation of severe economic inequality in a society...and this inequality, and information manipulation are my argument points -- actually, I am more interested in the current situation in China than that in the ancient Egypt...
As for the third point,
> modern archeologists don't believe the workers
> constructing the pyramids were slaves as such
do you have more hard evidences? In an academic setting, we always try to compose novel theories -- they may be correct, and they may be wrong...I just feel we should have more evidences in order to prove any point have a long lasting truth in it, but not just by a single study...Lastly, it's okay for you to downvote my post about the fact that my posts were downvoated...even if you are going to downvote that based on the sole reason that you took it for complaining or so, I am still going to voice out my observation there...
At one point, I was told their plan was to use Google Translate (through a VPN) for Mandarin-English translation, at which point "tensorflow" would come in and do some magic.
Needless to say, I roadrunner-ed out of there.
https://history.stackexchange.com/questions/663/why-did-chin...
The rest of the world totally did have things the Chinese wanted, silver and gold. Not much else at that stage to be fair but China was sucking precious metals from Western Eurasia for most of the first and second millenia.
But the "rest of the world" (meaning mostly the UK in that time period) did have something that was "in demand" in china: opium.
It was the imbalance between imports and exports - china wasn't interested in buying/importing what europeans were selling/exporting - that prompted the uk to start smuggling opium against chinese law, thus paving the way to the opium wars.
What's likely to happen is that there will be a crack down, some satisfying numbers will be shown to officials, and then everything will become back to normal soon after.
There has been this kind of talk about cracking down on VPN before, and it's still available, so wait and see
Just last year, out of the blue, Xi Jinping replaced the director of the Cyberspace Administration of China with a new guy named Xu Lin (which could be deemed as some sign that Xi Jinping really cares about the functioning of this department). Xu Lin has been staying pretty quietly during the past year, contrary to the flamboyant style of his predecessor...If someone is quiet and still able to stay in his position, especially a position that is concerned by a autocratic leader, then that usually indicates that he has been doing something concrete and not just putting up a show...
In the past, although there had been a lot of talks about regulating (not indiscriminately shutting down, but regulating) VPNs in China, but technically, they still did not have the capability of achieving that goal without shutting down many business at that time. Recently, China started to enforce new cyber security rules (and laws) which, as we could see from the following instance (see [1]), requires firms operating in China, for their communication devices and software, to:
* have regulator backdoor
* use domestic encryption technology
...
After those measures took effect, those companies, if they are still willing to operate in China, could still do their business as long as they are willing to register with the government and let the government monitor their data...And for those data channels which the government could not monitor and figure out its content, then they could easily detect them and shut them down...My guess is, the communist regime starts to realize that it is really important for them to control the information flow in the country in a way that is firm and concrete...And by observing their North Korean neighbor (as well as the Arabian revolts in the past decade), they understand that as long as they could control their people's mind and disrupt the natural synchronization in the society, they could have an ever lasting rule even there is another great famine or some serious crisis -- and otherwise, even if their people could enjoy a certain share of economic prosperity, the government could be overthrown sooner or later as long as there are continuous occurrences of triggering events, which would be inevitable given the practical difficulty and unscalability of managing a society of one and half billion people with a centralized administration, and given the fact that many officials in the current government are really corrupt, unscrupulous and have a fairly low respect for normal humanity (for the long dehumanization tradition of the communism) at this time...
--
[1] http://knowledge.freshfields.com/zh/China/r/1514/china_intro...
The regular crackdowns on VPNs mean that many who live in the region long since stopped using them and switched to a mobile plan or prepaid sim from China Mobile Hong Kong or Hong Kong Unicom that provides a Hong Kong IP address and unfiltered internet while roaming in the mainland.
That will stop them evil terrorists.
I recommend watching a movie called The Lives of Others, to those who don't understand or agree. It should be available on either Netflix or Amazon, or if all else fails, the Pirate Bay.
UDP VPNs do fail at random right now, I guess GFW people arrived at the point when they can't do anything about obfuscated and replay attack protected endpoints other than blocking all UDP traffic at random
[1] http://blog.zorinaq.com/my-experience-with-the-great-firewal...
Emulating a standard browser TLS handshake is a no-brainer.
There are enough side channels leaked trying to proxy an Internet connection through an encrypted tunnel, this is picked up on through Machine Learning or otherwise and it pretty effectively blocks many forms of escape. Read the parent article, let it soak in, and come back.
And from TFA, it looks like whatever China can't block through technology, they are blocking through politics.
Will some people find ways around it? Yes. However, it will be risky, and if any given technique becomes widespread, they will find a way to block it.
AWS traffic also never will be blocked.
Notice that a selective blocking is not the same as real-time https inspection and filtering, which is an intractable task.
I had a run-in with a particularly aggressive captive portal last week that kept injecting ads into unencrypted pages (if I'm traveling on one of your vehicles, I don't want to buy tickets to travel with you), but fortunately didn't firewall outgoing port 22 so I could use sshuttle to route 0.0.0.0/0 via an SSH connection to my personal server. This works with pretty much any server you can run Python on, so I don't know of a good way to stop it unless you're willing to block anyone from SSHing outside of the country (thus preventing e. g. Chinese companies with a global market from running servers in other countries).
After a quick read it's apparent that even the most sophisticated defences are going to be open to the one endpoint having loads of data against it. It would need lots of different "real" IP connections and my guess peer to peer would be difficult too.
Statistics and machine learning will always be good enough to evade attempts I can think of here.
An https proxy would work for that.
This is all academic because blocking VPN traffic is simple.
See a lot of traffic to the same ip? If yes, then block.
gotta love when people don't say this about china right away here, but talk about building your product inside a platform owned by fb or apple and you get the warnings instantly.
also, this is a good time to remember everyone to at least run a 1mbps tor node at home. costs nothing.
This highlights another issue that makes internet access in China inconvenient: Many websites flag Chinese IP addresses by default, presumably because they couldn't handle the spam otherwise.
Hint: TLS encrypted traffic following an appropriate browser-style handshake cannot be distinguished from "legitimate" https.
As in, it is not only a passive observer periodically resetting connections, it will also make its own to test the waters
- In-Depth Analysis of the Great Firewall of China. Has other good sources at the bottom: http://www.cs.tufts.edu/comp/116/archive/fall2016/ctang.pdf
- How China is Blocking Tor: https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.0447
- Summary of "How China is Blocking Tor" from MIT Review: https://www.technologyreview.com/s/427413/how-china-blocks-t...
No DPI needed.
Until this is circumvented there is no real solution.
Wildcard blocking of these would break too many legitimate services, including banking, airlines, etc.
BTW, the task of DPI-ing of all https traffic on the operator side is intractable.