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Comment by zitterbewegung | Hacker News Reader

So the probability of picking the correct configuration is 1/72 and the probability of picking the right game is 1/27 so it would be 1/1944 or 0.00051 which is better than navigating an asteroid field of 3720 to 1 .

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Droids are apparently bad at estimating outside odds since the two instances we see in the movie end with an unlikely outcome given the estimate.

And humans see patterns in a sample size of two ;)

Maybe it will rain today. Maybe it won't. 50/50.

"Even though the chance of rain was higher than predicted, it wasn't quite so high that it actually rained that day"

(translated from a cartoon by Dutch absurdist/cartoonist "Gummbah")

They said on the forecast yesterday there was a 50% chance of rain today, and looking outside I can see they got it right. Uncanny.

Publication bias.

When it's people, I think that's the anthropic principle. (And the file drawer is a much messier place to end up...)

Survivorship Bias.

You forgot to add in all those tie fighters chasing them that also tried to make it through an asteroid field.

Plus the bridge of one star destroyer which we've also seen as potentially disastrous for the ship.

Or C3PO is just a stodgy old frequentist: https://www.countbayesie.com/blog/2015/2/18/hans-solo-and-ba...

Han Solo is just force sensitive, that's all.

I'm not sure how you got to those numbers. There are 18 options for each face option (eyes, hair, mouth) so the odds of picking the right face is 1/5832. And the odds of picking yahtzee are 1/26. So the actual odds of picking the right combo are 1/151632.

In the post, it says he only filtered on three. Glasses, Girl, and Smile.

Never tell me the odds.

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