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Comment by medymed | Hacker News Reader

The argument to increase immigration seems like a quick-fix for countries poised to become elderly-heavy, but when those immigrants are uneducated and most likely to perform jobs that will be automated away in 15-20 years (and face enormous linguistic barriers to participate in e.g. japanese society), such immigrants may be as much or more long-term dependents as they would have previously been assets in labor-heavy economies. Weathering the geriatric storm for a generation or two until a new and lower post-industrial carrying capacity is reached could be a smoother long term social and economic proposition for such countries, especially if they aren't immigrant-friendly already.

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I think that your comment in not accurate in this context.

Most of the work visas that are extended in Japan are for qualified jobs. Having a university degree is mandatory for most of the types of visa. Also, they need to offer you a good salary.

Actually, one of the few ways to get a visa without having qualification is to come from an English speaking country and work as an English teacher because they need a lot them.

http://www.juridique.jp/immigration.html#workvisa

True. Japan has long been a leader in automation. Maybe they can pull it off. And elder care will be largely automated too.

On the other hand, limitations on immigration (not just to Japan, I suspect) won't reduce overall population growth. Indeed, it will arguably increase it, because those people will be stuck in subsistence economies.

Cap'n Obvious here, but immigration by non-Japanese in face of falling Japanese demographics will ultimately result in a country that's not really Japan anymore. That's probably a fact of life, if you consider societies to be living entities, and thus bound by the same constraints...and yet even as a non-Japanese it feels really sad to recognize that Japan as a unique nation, with a unique culture and society might disappear. Not much to do, though, if they don't want to have kids...

Societies come and go and there is nothing wrong with it that was the response I got from a Japanese elderly man few years ago when we were discussing declining population and future of Japan during my visit to Japan.

Japan's great skill is adaptation without throwing away all the lessons of the past. It's an extremely delicate balancing act that requires a lot of trust in your neighbors. They've been doing it more or less for at least a thousand years, so there's plenty of room for an optimistic outcome. As usual, the narrative in the west is that Japan is going to fail any minute because it hasn't followed the lead of enlightened nations. Meanwhile, moving from NYC to Japan felt like leaping twenty years into a brighter future that I can only hope others will be able to discover. One thing is for sure: Japan in fifty years won't be the same as Japan today. Rapid and determined change is a constant here.

Most of the unique elements of Japan's culture come from emulating Western programs. First in a militaristic way as a response to Commodore Perry, then as a result of the post-war occupation.

Tea ceremony, Zen buddhism, Geisha, Samurai, ... from emulating Western programs?

Have you read about Japanese culture before commenting?

Tea ceremony and Zen Buddhism are Chinese traditions. Zen's influence today is largely related to the turn away from militarized Shinto and western interest during the period. The tea ceremony has changed in Japan and it is one of their longest traditions.

Geisha were sex workers with a bit of mystique attached. Similarly, samurai were knights or dukes, and any influence they currently have comes from a romanticised version much like knights received.

Yes, and I understand the difference between history and the cultural perception of it. The ideas these things represent often come from the Meiji period propaganda.

>and any influence they currently have comes from a romanticised version much like knights received.

Much of it fabricated by the samurai themselves long after they had to put down their swords and were relegated to bureaucrats. Even the concept of "bushido[0]" has been argued to be a modern anarchronism, and an intentionally Westernized 20th century fiction based on the Romantic ideals of knights and chivalry.

[0]https://www.tofugu.com/japan/bushido/

Same can be said for Sweden, Germany, etc.

Japan's cultural uniqueness is mostly a romantic myth. People act as if the Sakoku period was the norm for Japan and not an exception, but Japan has been just as susceptible to cultural influence as any other country. Much of that "unique culture" was adapted from China, much more of it from the West. That's not in any way calling it illegitimate, a lot of Western countries borrow from one another (or impose cultural change through violence) or crib from the ancient Greeks or Romans. The process of cultural admixture and transformation through trade, religion and violence is the same everywhere. Westerners just seem to ignore the phenomenon as it relates to Japan, I suspect, to maintain some sense of exoticism about the place.

Japan would lose its ethnic homogeneity, but to me that's not something worth caring about or mourning the loss of. The culture would change, but culture always changes.

Why would the loss of ethnic identity in Japan not be a bad thing? It would be a loss for diversity.

It would be a gain for diversity in Japan, though. These things are relative.

Confused. On a planetary scale, it would result in a net loss of diversity. Let's take it to the extreme and claim the Japanese completely die out as an ethnic group. Why would the diversity increase?

> Japan's cultural uniqueness is mostly a romantic myth

Have you been there? I can't imagine anyone who has spent any amount of time in Japan would claim there is no cultural uniqueness.

I may have just been imprecise in my wording. I was addressing andreiw's assertion that Japan would "not really (be) Japan anymore" after cultural influence from immigration. But Japan's culture is already the beneficiary of a great deal of foreign cultural influence, so nothing would happen to it with respect to immigration that hasn't been happening to it since practically the dawn of time.

At best, the rate of cultural transformation might be accelerated, but even then I suspect the doomsday scenario of Japan simply vanishing in a generation (or whatever) due to an influx of immigrants is unlikely. If the Meiji restoration or the American occupation didn't destroy Japan's cultural identity then a few thousand more gaijin won't either.

The problem is in the future, and those uneducated immigrants will have college aged kids in the time frame you mention. They will have the resources needed to develop this automated society, and the automation of labor makes being a dependent less of an issue.

Also Japan is xenophobic so such a solution would never fly anyway

Nations are more than identity-less economic zones.

Saying "Japan is xenophobic" is perhaps a poor choice of words, but why the downvotes??

Even if Japanese Citizens are welcoming of and friendly towards foreigners, Japan as a Country is quite well known for it's strict immigration policy.

> Discrimination in Japan is based on nationality. Guest workers are not considered true immigrants, and their children and grandchildren are often seen as outsiders because of the absence of birthright citizenship. Employers tend to treat them as foreigners.

Source: Immigration Is Tough for Japan, But it's the solution for population loss. => https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2015-12-07/immigrati...

and

> Call it an opportunity, maybe, but don’t call it work. Legally, the time Ms. Liu spent ironing and packing women’s wear in Japan is considered “training.” She had entered the murky and at times abusive world of Japan’s technical trainees — essentially second-class laborers brought in from abroad to fill jobs that Japanese citizens aren’t taking.

Source: Japan Limited Immigration; Now It’s Short of Workers => https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/10/business/japan-immigrants...

Xenophobia implies malintent and an unenlightened view. I could just as easily say that Japan is very protective of its society and thus is selective about who gets to join. It is fundamentally a balanced approach to immigration.

Of course, this is offensive to those who have been indoctrinated with the dogma that all people are the same and deserve the same opportunities, regardless of the cost to society. I think you can see clearly the flaws in the post-enlightenment primacy of personal liberty in America and Europe today. It's a kind of extremism, which will inevitably repeat the cycle of destruction, revolution, conquest, etc.

> those who have been indoctrinated with the dogma that all people are the same

It's amazing how widespread and deeply ingrained an idea perhaps 20 years old is, especially considering how obviously false it is from simple observation. Of course, it hasn't been an organic acceptance.

People have only heard one side of the argument from mainstream "news" sources their entire lives, even though the social science is clear that diversity is bad for social trust, empathy, peace, etc.

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