URLs Are Totally Out In Japan
cabel.name
cabel.name
Besides, punycode isn't especially efficient. I suspect you quickly run into the DNS hostname length limit as well, as the number of punycode characters required increases with the numerical value of the code points to encode. I'm too lazy right now to work out how many Japanese characters you can maximally encode in a domain name. :)
Note: I don't speak Japan, have never been to Japan and am generally out of touch with Japanese culture. My first language (German) only uses a small number of non-ASCII characters, so I'm not exactly an expert on IDNs.
I guess it would be similar in a way to tinyurl.com
This obviously would only be a good option if the hash didn't need to be reversible. And I don't really see why it would be, since the dns system itself isn't perfectly reversible.
Besides, it took long enough to get IDNs out "into the wild", and they're still struggling. IE6 still doesn't support them out-of-the-box, so there goes about half (or more) of your non-technical audience. I use exactly one site with an IDN regularly, http://öbb.at/ - the rail company here, and they actually advertise their other, non-IDN domain, oebb.at, presumably due to lack of browser support.
Search terms works especially in trains, simply because everybody has an internet-enabled phone that has quick keys to a search function. Saying that it's the reasonable next step from the current state of affairs, and assuming it resulted from the lack of good domain names, is quite a leap in reasoning. It's been a while since I payed any attention, but I never spotted a trend of startups using nonsensical/typo domain names like they did in the US.
Japan's internet culture is quite different from anywhere else, IMO.
You could probably take it even one step further - replace search boxes and URLs with QR codes(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/QR_Code).
They're everywhere in Japan now.
You just scan the code with your (5.1 MP) mobile camera and it loads the URL directly in your mobile browser.
I'd expect to see similar implementations coming back, on a larger scale. It's a lot of what John Battelle writes about as the next evolution of search. It's just with the SERPs flipped inside out (they find you) and plastered all over books, posters, etc.
QR codes work so much better, particularly for print such as the free commuter newspapers Murdoch gives to train travelers etc. The main problem is user acceptance/education outside of Japan & Korea. We did a small sample test (unscientific) with QR codes in Melbourne, AU: In the under 40s bracket, perhaps 1/15 could identify the QR code but only 1/25 could successfully use it.
A disadvantage of QR codes might be that they don't work so well for human brains: if you want to establish your brand through an advertising campaign, a QR code alone won't help much.
This article's proposal that search boxes are the next step sounds likely, but again, doesn't scale well, and has substantial search-engine risk. If Google drops your pagerank then not only is it harder to find you in a search engine, but all your marketing is useless because your call-to-action is broken.
http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/03/26/communicate-acquires-y-...
In Japan, URLs are on the way out, while a U.S. company who's main asset is a bunch of domain names are buying a YCombinator start-up to further monetize them.
EDIT: I can't believe I just used "monetize" un-ironically in a sentence.
It's a very neat Bayesian DWIM thing.
Getting back to the OP, I think it's a non sequitur to go from "URLs have been downplayed in packaging and advertisements" to "URLs are out", though.