That hypothesis does not seem to apply to Lisbon, Portugal so far. We have now around 60km of dedicated bicycle paths in Lisbon (not just cycle lanes, but actual separated paths) all built in recent years (and plans to double that very soon).

But, simply put, they are barely used.

A few things are different in Lisbon from a lot of Northern Europe cities: it's very hilly and windy, it has temperatures close to 40 degrees in the summer (we have AC throughout the tube network) and in the winter, when it rains it really pours (not that drizzle that you get in London for example).

I may be too early to call it, but not all cities are alike and many people here are very skeptic about whether general adoption will ever be reached.