Has anyone seen any returns for Numerai? They've been around for a while and I wish they would "put up or shut up" as the saying goes. I see that they have paid out money to developers but its not clear if the fund itself is generating alpha above their benchmark index or not.
One of my jobs is to review people who claim to have created algos that can generate alpha. Sadly it's very common for people to talk a big game about the returns they can generate, but then are unable to show any reliable track record when pressed.
Some of reasons I've heard:
- well we weren't actually trading, this is just all theoretical results
- well we didn't include the first 6 months of the year as we weren't profitable yet
- yes if you don't include theses particular trades we were profitable.
- yes we made money, its just that the market itself made more with less volatility.
I really would like Numerai to succeed, mostly because I'm interested in if the idea of mixing 1000's of models together and letting people vote on their weightings can succeed.