We Are Not Time Travelers
behance.net
behance.net
Say you're in 1975 and know exactly how to build an iPhone. It simply wouldn't be possible to do. Technology tends to come into existence pretty soon after it becomes possible for it to exist.
Right after an achievement becomes possible, there is a window (say, 2-3 years) where people compete to create the definitive implementation. But it's not certain that knowledge from the future would help you beat the others. It would probably help, but that advantage could easily be wiped out by the same things that wipe out any other technology project (bad hacking, bad management, etc.)
But 1975? That is taking it too far. I was alive in 1975! It was different from today, but not so different that you couldn't figure it out.
Yeah, you might be hard pressed to build an iPhone. But do not underestimate the awesome power of hindsight. The great thing about hindsight is that you know which ideas are likely dead ends and which are likely to pay off. Just knowing, say, that mammalian cloning is physically possible would make it a lot easier to do. You know that if you keep trying the reward is out there.
I think a lot of web technology could have been built earlier if people had only known it was worth building.
Well... The web browser was there in the 70's - we called it the 3278.
Now, on a more serious tone, in computing we see the worst solution gaining share over better ones on a regular basis. It's only a half-joke when I say Smalltalk 80 beats Java (or C#) 2010...
* I don't think they'd accept my money but its worth a try; reversing 3% inflation for a eight hundred years make 100 pounds in those days worth a lot.
Hint: Take gold instead.
One of the reasons I mentioned that is that toys from the early 80s avoided the use of Plastic as it was a cost center.
Are crocs not made out of some kind of plastic compound? Or is it because the plastic is easily replaceable, and people are referring to the form factor?
Oh I almost can hear the interviews:
-- How did you managed to describe the exact interface of the iPhone more than 30 years before its release ?
-- Well, I actually came from the future.
-- LOL! Let's make sure you don't get anywhere near the LHC then.
Using this line of thinking I came to the algorithm necessary to predict the future with a higher chance of success:
First Step: Do it like we always do, predict the future. Spaceships, gadgets and so on. Second Step: Now get in the shoes of someone from that "time" and do the first step again.
You now have, what I believe, a good prediction. Using this simple algorithm I now think that any spaceship with a single forward view screen (eg: star trek) is plain silly and it would make more sense to have view screens in every face of the bridge (with holographic floating screen or something) to have more freedom.
A decent knowledge of things like unit testing could also make you pretty damned effective in the then-burgeoning market of custom software. You might be able to pull a Google or a Netscape with a small team you hired from your consulting profits.
With a decent knowledge of what tech was coming down the pike next year or so, I'm pretty sure you could do pretty well any time back to 1975 or so.
Beyond that, I'd need research, because I didn't live through it - but if you know which year you're going for, check the patent database for anything invented about five years later than your target. That takes you back to the 1700's.
Further back than that, you're talking about agriculture (crop rotation, for instance) or stirrups or something. Give me a target year and six months of prep time, and I'm virtually positive I could put together a killer business plan that would leave me or at least my children owning the world.
Hey -- go back to 1975 and out-Stallman Stallman. Then when a crafty dork fresh dropped out of Harvard comes along with a cranky letter -- you do realize that you are stealing software, don't you? -- he would have gotten what he deserves: a fuck you and the mother of all wedgies.
But the transistor, the thing that makes most of these gadgets possible, was already around in 1975, its only that people have gotten so damn good at making them by now. This happens through a long series of small improvements.
Same would go for other tech... Not so difficult to build a battery or a steam engine in any age really, but making it highly efficient as we know it now, different story.
eg (UK-centric list, maybe):
* TVs - they were supposed to get smaller, they're huge now
* HiFi - bigger surely, and they did for a bit during the 1980s ("when you die they'll bury you in it")
* Womens' cars - are now bigger than mens' cars by far
* Men's underpant - bigger
* Women's underpants - smaller
etc
Has anyone else thought what, say a nexus one (with my handy hp-48 emulator, plus shell scripting) would do to say, ww2? I'm pretty sure whichever side got their hands on it would just win.
Instant artillery calculations, speeding up the nuclear program by about a factor of 1000, and some serious encryption capabilities. All in the palm of my hand. I'm not even talking about bringing the cell phone network or the internet with me. Just perhaps a few cached wikipedia articles.
Many, many, many times over the decades. Anybody remember Mark Twain's "A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court". Or more recent movies like the one around 1980 about the USS Nimitz going back in time and keeping Pearl Harbor from being totally destroyed.
If your intent is to accelerate research, on the other hand, obvious candidates would be CAD systems and simulations. A lot of lighter/cheaper machine designs have come from finding better minima of cost/weight/strength, and microprocessors themselves are beneficiaries of CAD technology. If you're in the pre-industrial era, being able to transport back blueprints of modern designs would still be of benefit, even if the economy isn't ready for all of them.
It should be pointed out that a linear scaling is inappropriate, though, because Colossus was not Turing complete, which makes direct comparisons very tricky. The very oldest things we today call "computers" tended to do a lot of stuff in very, very specialized hardware, and converting that into a modern-day, very general-purpose "clock cycle" is not trivial. It might be better to understand this as a glorified GPU-like processor. Only even less powerful, as it was even more special-purpose than a modern GPU.
(Or at least it will be better, if you understand the intrinsic limitations of GPU-like processing. If you're a Cell fanboy who bought the Sony's PS3 gibberish about performance hook line and sinker and still haven't worked out why Cell-based computers haven't destroyed Intel without invoking some sort of paranoid theory, that might not be as helpful a way of understanding things as I'd like.)
If by "my handy hp-48 emulator" you mean to say you're the one who wrote it, then thanks and mad props; this is fantastic.
Here are two designs I was immediately reminded of; both because of the style and, for these two in particular, the subject matter.
http://www.merchline.com/iso50/productdisplay.3969.p.htm / http://www.merchline.com/iso50/categorydisplay.2586.c.htm
I enjoy Scott's work and have purchased a few of his posters. This one is my favorites:
http://blog.iso50.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/12/iso50-north...
Even further back in the aesthetic pedigree of this work you'll note similarities to the work of Shepard Fairey, who created the OBEY giant phenomenon and, more recently, the iconic, 3-color HOPE poster for Obama's presidential campaign.
The 1970s belong to us all†. For better or for worse.
(†: Certain aspects of the 1970s may not be available until 2065 or later, assuming no further modifications of the copyright act. Consult your representative for more details.)
I like Grados myself, but anything beyond the '60s needs more amp than the players have built in (and the crossfeed makes a huge difference if the recording wasn't originally binaural). No need to go overboard unless you are a can fanatic and have a better source than an iPod (or other portable); the AirHead/BitHead is better than you can imagine. Bonus: the BitHead is an excellent USB "sound card" as well.
Not only is this guy a fantastic designer he's also a very strong copy writer. The advert headline and copy is really nicely crafted.
I think a company copy style where they constantly profess things like "our company definitely was started by time travellers 33 years in the future" is a wonderful idea to actually use in real life for some high tech firm. Cheeky and playful it would get a lot of attention.
It looks like there was a lot of back-and-forth between something like Illustrator, Photoshop and (probably) 3DSmax (the hooks to the Adobe stuff make it a good workflow tool). The lighting and shaders are well beyond anything I've ever been able to do, but there are little -- really tiny -- mistakes in some details (physical dimensions of real-world things us old folks are intimately familiar with that kids wouldn't notice) in his work that tell me these aren't physical mockups (the way we used to do it in the good old days). Still, there's a lot of work represented here.
And the phone and laptop are also rendered in 3D, and then rotated and skinned?
It seems like it would be quite a bit of work to make that cell phone in 3D max (mostly the keys would be annoying to produce).
There isn't any clever way of doing the background though right?
And if someone makes a window manager theme for the laptop interface, tell me. Meanwhile, I'm hunting for some basic interpreters...
Here is a record player from 1956: http://www.flickr.com/photos/nickwade/4130988683/in/pool-464...
And a tape deck from 1975: http://www.flickr.com/photos/8944091@N08/2068062385/in/pool-...
The technology is obsolete but I don’t think the design is.