Think you’re living in a ‘hellhole’ today? Try being a billionaire in 1916
washingtonpost.com
washingtonpost.com
The article makes no attempt at resolving the underlying and more important question: why is it okay that the ultra-rich of today have the ability to buy so much political power, have access to healthcare that is far more advanced than that which is available to even the middle class (let alone the poor), can live in such a way that causes so much harm to the environment or generally does damage to shared resources, and can have so much influence over information whether via the internet or through articles such as this one? In other words, why is okay that there inequality is so great and progress is applied so unequally?
"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." - William Gibson
"In virtue of this monstrous system, the son of the worker, on entering life, finds no field which he may till, no machine which he may tend, no mine in which he may dig, without accepting to leave a great part of what he will produce to a master. He must sell his labour for a scant and uncertain wage. His father and his grandfather have toiled to drain this field, to build this mill, to perfect this machine. They gave to the work the full measure of their strength, and what more could they give? But their heir comes into the world poorer than the lowest savage. If he obtains leave to till the fields, it is on condition of surrendering a quarter of the produce to his master, and another quarter to the government and the middlemen." (From The Conquest of Bread)
The real culprit is land: we don't accumulate any more of that, so it's rates of return don't vanish.
An interesting point to this is the land value tax, advocated by Georgists (whom Einstein was sympathetic to).
> It's good: capital competes with capital to lowers its rates of return. We need more capital.
Can you expand on what you mean by this, please? Why does there need to be competition?
> Can you expand on what you mean by this, please? Why does there need to be competition?
All of GDP basically gets split between land, labour and capital. As sort-of Georgist libertarian/socialists, we want as much of that to go to labour as possible, but without shrinking the pie. We redirect land's share via an LVT. But we don't want to tax capital: but fortunately, the competition between capital goods will lead to lower rates of return.
The owner of the first factory might make lots of profit. The owner of the second factory less so, and the third might barely break even. The surplus can go to consumers and workers.
(Not sure if that was better explained?)
Back then you would give a manuscript to your secretary who would type it, hand it to the typesetter, and it would go to the printer, both skilled tradesman and unionized. Now you yourself submit camera-ready copy to the publisher and pay a subscription for Office 365 year after year. You ask yourself why the price of scientific journals hasn't dropped, but the missing land tax isn't the reason.
I'm also not quite sure what this American obsession with unions is about.
Actually, the price for reading science has dropped to almost zero. But, of course, not if you restrict yourself to paying for scientific journals.
(The monopolies there that drive high costs are the result of a really weird system---and yes, that one's not got to do much with land rents nor equipment. It's closer to regulatory capture, and entrenched interests.)
Wouldn't lowering rates of return on capital disincentivise investment in new capital? If that was the most important dynamic then presumably the greatest amount of aggregate capital would be obtained through capital redistribution?
A scarcity of capital leads to higher rates of return. A glut of capital leads to lower rates of return. There's an equilibrium in the middle. My "We need more capital." was spoken from the point of view of someone selling their labour for a living: for me as a worker, there can't be enough capital.
That said, he also advocated that menial tasks such as sweeping the floor should be done by machines instead of people, and in this respect I wholeheartedly agree. Washing machines, vacuums and dishwashers have improved everyone's lives in the past century...at least everyone in the richer parts of the world.
I don't think we've given Communism a good go, especially as those societies in the modern world (i.e after the advent of capitalism) have been capitalist states, either internally or externally to other nations. The fact is that in the absence of a motivator for money, people will do things for a variety of reasons, including wanting to make the world a better place, out of a desire for mastery, desire for recognition, out of wanting to improve the lives of those who will come after you, to live in a society you want to live in (everyone wants to live in a society with clean toilets) etc.
It is also a fact that these motivators only appear in two cases, (i) when people have enough money to not have to worry about survival and being satisfied (ii) when people have no need for money, as they are already satisfied.
Neither of these cases has happened yet.
Citation needed. Last I checked, healthcare is still pretty much either (reasonably) cheap to provide at middle class levels of affluence or next to useless, statistically speaking.
(Not talking about America here---the US seems seriously screwed. But about what healthcare costs to someone who's willing to be eg a medical tourist.)
Perhaps even because it is tautological, that someone lacking decent access to healthcare isn't reasonably described as middle class. But probably because while healthcare does cost a lot, people with decent jobs tend to be able to afford the cost.
Because inequality is the result of competitive capitalism, which allows some people to become extremely wealthy by providing value to others. Almost all of the advances in quality of life have come around because enterprising people were able to profit from providing them.
Hedge funders, for example, do not create any clear value to society despite massive windfalls (especially those automated algorithms that look for arbitrage in pennies, but as massive volume and frequency). Those who provide power by coal compare to solar or wind significantly shortchange those who buy the same electricity because the "value" does not price this in (humans are terrible at choosing for long term gains compared to short term anyway). Those who save money (it's all value!) by dumping their toxic waste products in oceans and rivers do terrible harm to the world yet stay rewarded. All that value allows them to buy off politicians (more value!), which gives a cyclical effect.
I wish capitalists wouldn't speak in such abstract terms -- reality must be confronted.
Which is why their compensation is contractual. It obviously provides some value to the high net worth clients who agree to their fees.
It's not like hedge fund managers rely on MacArthur fellowships or some taxpayer assistance program for their compensation needs.
In some societies the employment in hedge fund industry is at, or near, zero. Hedge fund managers rise to the occasion, that occasion being demand for their services.
Most major advances we now take for granted were the results either of government research funding or passion projects of lone researchers and inventors. Often they were a combination of the two. Many of the lifestyle changing inventions we now take for granted were invented long before they became broadly marketable and often their creators never profited from them.
Markets are handy distribution tools and individual freedoms are important. But profit is not the primary driver of innovation. Passion, curiosity, and desire to make the world a better place -- these are the drivers of innovation.
Of late, the drive toward profit has become a stifler of innovation as "competitive" capitalism, when unregulated under neoliberal policy, moves inexorably towards uncompetitive monopoly in the pursuit of profit.
So why is it that major advances in pharmaceutical research or technology come from places driven primarily by profit motive, i.e. US? Seems that there would be a more random distribution of such businesses around the world. Are people in areas that focus on quality of life (Denmark, Costa Rica, New Zealand) less inventive, passionate or curious?
The problem of recent years is that the balance is slightly off. Housing, Education and in the US healthcare seems to have set an upper bound on the non-rich. Everybody else is getting net gain, the poor worldwide improve, the rich improve, the first world middle class progress seems to taper.
The rich progress should have tapered before the middle class, signalling that we are a few generation away from utopian post-scarcity world. The rich sailing away and all the rest squeezing under a glass ceiling is instead signalling that we are a few generation away from dystopian world with a superclass and underclass. Worse, if being in the underclass meant living like a middle class 20th century first world citizen, that would not be ideal but that would be quite good, however there is no guarantee it is such. Especially not when the current political wisdom is that if you are not middle class, that's because you are not worth it and social service is only there to scratch the charity itch of your better, no as a human right.
What more money buys you, now and in 1916, is social status. And that's always good for your subjective quality of life.
It wasn't always so---economies around the globe really only took off once the bourgeoisie could buy their way into status.
It goes well beyond that. With more money, I can pay someone to keep my house clean and maintain my yard, own a more reliable car, buy and eat better quality/healthier food. I don't have to care about how much it costs me to go to the dentist, nor how much I have to pay to vacation for two weeks in South America.
You can exercise money to buy social status, but at the heart of it, money buys ease of life. I bet Bill Gates very rarely thinks about how much money he has or how much something will cost him; your housekeeper thinks about that much, much more often.
Another point is about the utility of money. Once you reach a certain level of financial independence, your life is only marginally improved by private jets and private chefs. For instance, if you had $4 million in index funds, you could quit your job and live on an annual salary of $120k. You could hire cleaners, drive a very nice car, eat very good food, have great health and dental insurance, and go on vacation... permanently.
I think more software engineers should be thinking about financial independence, because it's so achievable in this industry.
And even before that: bourgeois attitudes can make a few dollars stretch a lot more. (But on the other hand, having more money lets you get away with less discipline in spending.)
To be honest, I'm not big on having my name in history books, or having statues made in my image. I'd like to help a lot of people if I can, but I don't want to start a foundation in my name. Everything is fleeting and ultimately meaningless, so why put your name on it.
Mark Zuckerberg's phone has the same camera your phone has, but the photographer he pays to follow him around has a better one, so he never uses it. Bill Gates has access to the same Thai restaurants as you, but his private chef knows how to make his family's favorite dishes and he never has to wait in line.
* Hollywood doesn't make a lot of good movies anymore. I haven't seen a great comedy in many years. There's been a few decent dramas and science fiction movies, but they're not grabbing my attention like they used to.
* I really enjoy going to the cinema. I like the ritual of going out, buying tickets, and just being around other people. If I'm interested in a movie, I'll watch it at IMAX, and I don't want to have an IMAX theater in my house. I want to have a small, comfortable house.
* I decided I don't even really want a home theater. At least, not the kind of home theater you see in these huge mansions. I can't imagine inviting 20 people to my house to watch a movie, because that's just too many people. I'm far more comfortable with maybe 4 or 5 friends in a living room, with a big TV and a nice stereo.
> They can also just hang out with the creators of those movies and shows
That would be fun, but also kind of lame. I don't want to be that guy. I'd much rather be directly involved with the production of a movie or show, and maybe meet some of those people naturally. Not because of money, but because I had some creative input.
> Mark Zuckerberg's phone has the same camera your phone has, but the photographer he pays to follow him around has a better one
Haha, I don't want to pay a photographer to follow me around. That's a very strange idea.
> Bill Gates has access to the same Thai restaurants as you, but his private chef knows how to make his family's favorite dishes and he never has to wait in line
That's the thing though, I don't want a private chef. I can pick up literally any food I want, whenever I want. If I don't want to pick it up, I can get it delivered within 45 minutes. It's like I have hundreds of private chefs all around the city.
The whole idea of "private staff" is just really weird to me. They're basically just very well-paid servants. I mean, they literally are servants. I wouldn't mind hiring a cleaning service to clean my house, someone to mow my lawn, or some SF startup to come do my laundry. But you don't have to be extremely wealthy to afford any of these services.
Good on them for making it there but none of us have that level of freedom. In the end I don't care about Spotify or smartphones. I care about what I spend my life on, where I spend it, and who I spend it with. In those regards, Gates and Zuckerberg have freedom which I do not.
I'm not convinced that I need a private chef. I probably wouldn't hire one, even if I could afford it. My wife and I both enjoy cooking, and we enjoy eating at restaurants (I guess you would call them "public chefs".) I haven't noticed a void in my life that would be filled by a private chef.
> They could effectively pay to enact laws directly benefiting them
I think you're mainly talking about the power they have to change the world. I would handle this responsibility if it were given to me, but I'm not seeking it out. It would feel more like you have the whole world on your shoulders, which would come with a ton of stress. I'd do the same if I were in their shoes, but it's a very difficult job. Very similar to being the President, in terms of influence and power.
> Every day that they work is a choice and is devoted to their passion.
I would also like to be there one day. I only need around $4 million for that. If you invest $4 million in index funds, you can safely withdraw $120k per year, forever. That's enough for me, but I wouldn't live in San Francisco.
Come spend some time in LA and you'll see that only the plebs dress up when they go out to eat at a fancy place. All of the celebrities and people with "real" wealth ($100 million+) don't bother.
Would you rather risk life and limb to bring home the bread and keep your family of 5 happy and well-fed in 1916? Or would you prefer to be alone and addicted in opioid county, Ohio, today?
Meanwhile, the 1916 billionaire can spend 95+% of their waking time in leisure or doing things entirely of their choosing, even if raising kids (various staff do the hard and not-intrinsically-rewarding stuff like prepping food, cleaning up their messes, shopping for them, and so on, you just play with them if you like, the drudgery is entirely out of your hands). I'd be lucky to average 25% leisure time over a year (including quality time with kids in that figure). This makes the health thing seem less obviously an unacceptable trade-off that it otherwise might.
Yeah, I'd miss Indian food, but I'd get over it. The media stuff--I mean, there's so much I'm practically drowning in it, and it's not like there's nothing to do for the 1916 billionaire, it's just that less of it is watching screens or listening to magnets vibrate cones. I'd get used to not having AC, and buildings were designed for it back then so it's not nearly as bad as when the AC goes out in a modern house (source: have actually lived in a 1914-construction American house on the NHR, with no central AC). Just don't buy a vacation house in Florida then visit it in August. If you can manage that, you'll be fine.
[EDIT] and my 25% (again, optimistically) free time is much lower-quality that that of someone whose time is almost entirely free, since that other 75% is always looming an hour or so away, generating anxiety, breaking up free-time into tiny, nearly useless chunks, making me feel guilty that I'm not working on one of the many things that'll be in that 75%, and so on.
Depression, bipolar, and std's were treatable in the 1916. Maybe not effectively, but it is not like we are handling depression or bipolar satisfactorily now.
Looking at number of suicides then and now, would probably have made for a better argument. Or dwelling on just exactly how our treatments of illnesses have become better.
For instance, yesterday I remarked to myself when seeing colourful flag advertisements along the road for a new condo that the colours on the flags were at one time never possible to manufacture, the way purple was reserved for royalty and was impossible to reproduce until we managed to find an animal that produced the dye [0], and even then it took 9000 of the animals to produce a gram. Today, you can buy anything purple for pennies and throw it away without a second thought.
I wonder that if a King from the 16th century were to visit my (to me) basic apartment, the first thing he would notice before anything else would be how colourful everything is.
[0] http://www.livescience.com/33324-purple-royal-color.html
May as well take the argument to its extreme - would you rather be a lower middle class person on welfare and no career prospects, but who has access to air travel, smartphones, Internet, etc...OR would you want to be emperor of Rome in the second or third century AD?
George Will had a deadline and was feeling lazy so he repackaged someone else's poorly-argued blog post and sent that to his editor. The only interesting thing here is that George Will doesn't mind putting his name on something like that.
BTW, that piece was written by George Will. I'm personally not a big fan, but he is a Pulitzer Prize winner. If you think that one of his articles is "of such low quality" that it deserves to be flagged you might want to consider the possibility that the problem is with your reading rather than his writing.
> he repackaged someone else's poorly-argued blog post
So you just accused a Pulitzer Prize winner of plagiarism. Do you have any evidence for this? Where is the original that you claim he "repackaged"?
It's not plagiarism, but it's also not something a moderately talented high-schooler couldn't have done. I mean he even used the same food examples, the same real-estate examples, the same travel examples, the same home appliance examples...all he did is add some BLS stats.
The problem isn't that today's billionaires have more toys, houses, and concubines than the rest of us. The problem is that money is power--and they have so much of it that they can short-circuit the avenues of democratic self-government.
If your kids are in school, public or private, chances are Bill Gates has more input on how your kids are educated than you do. Or if an oil company wants to frack in your neighborhood, no matter how outstanding the town hall turnout may be, I'd put my money on the oil company eventually getting its way.
The frustrating thing about many economic statistics, and this is talked about at length in "The Second Machine Age", is that they include very little of things we would deem very important. So things get "mathematically worse" but in reality are quite a bit better.
I don't want to go at length on this and beyond what my memory can recall, but an example they used in the book is Wikipedia. It's incredible obviously. But it does not factor in any quality of life or GDP statistic.
Meanwhile inequality is only rising. But we shouldn't care because look at all the cool things we now have?!
Almost any USA citizen is in the top 5% if compared with the rest of the world. How many of them are willing to share their excess of wealth?
Also happiness isn't necessarily the outcome that everyone in society wants. Some may want to maximize happiness -- others may want to maximize something else.
Means of getting happiness are a different discussion, and what happiness is might differ from person to person. But why would you e.g. accumulate more money or power if it didn't bring you any happiness?
So, given that bit of common sense, what makes this argument pointless and/or irrelevant? Should I just descend into complete and abject despair over the nice stuff we'll have in 2116? There's something obviously wrong with this line of reasoning.
Maybe it's the fact that regardless of how much nice stuff we have today, our class and wealth still largely determines what we do with our lives and our relations to others, and those can be arbitrarily hellish regardless of the material comfort involved.
This sort of argument is as miserable as that Fox News segment a few years ago that tried to downplay how miserable poverty can be by citing refrigerator and microwave ownership rates. Not surprising that a paleocon pseudointellectual like George Will would latch on to such a shallow and frivolous argument.
You would prefer to live in a world without penecillan if it meant being richer than everyone else?
1. The world is always getting better.
2. Everyone thinks it's always getting worse.
For the sake of argument, let us say that your resources presently amount to a leather bag containing a hundred unmarked silver coins. Interestingly enough, by the "what would you like to do" measure, you are fantastically more wealthy than any given ancestor put in the same position of ownership. You have immensely greater choice. Clearly there is more to wealth-as-choice than present property. We must also consider the historical investment made into increasing choice, and into lowering the cost of specific - usually popular - choices. The engines of technology and open, free markets are turned by people to create new, better, cheaper choices. The choice to fly, the choice to remain alive with heart disease, the choice to avoid that heart disease.
Where do silver coins - or indeed, any other resources you might own - come from? Where does investment come from? After all, we don't come into this world with the proverbial silver implement between the teeth. No, we worked for those coins. We spent time and negotiated payment for that time. Why? Because time is valuable.
But time spent alive, measured in the ticking of heartbeats, is more than valuable - it is wealth itself, the source of all other measures of wealth. All property was created by someone, somewhere, taking their time. The creation and exchange of property is a way to make time fungible, transferrable, a more valuable resource. Time spent alive is the root of all property, all human action, and thus all wealth - both the silver in your pocket that provides for present choice, and the wealth of possible choices created by past investment.
Time is everything. How much have time you spent reading this far? Could you have been doing something more useful, more optimal from your perspective? We make these small evaluations constantly, because time is the most valuable thing we have.
We all go through engineering our cycles of property and time; how can we best optimize time to generate property that can be used to make our time more effective? We do this in small ways and large, but everyone does it. Some people do it so effectively they launch themselves into property escape velocity, exponentially increasing the effectiveness of their time and exploring the outer limits of what it means to maintain ownership of a great deal of property.
Interestingly, despite the grand importance of time as the absolute foundation of wealth, very little progress has been made in the most obvious optimization of all: creating property that can create more time. More heartbeats, more health, more time spent alive and active. Rejuvenation medicine, capable of repairing the damage of aging. Tissue engineering to generate replacements for worn organs. The cure for cancer. If you could do all that, then the much more productive form of escape velocity becomes possible - longevity escape velocity. Why strive to maintain an empire of property that will crumble to dust when the degenerations of age catch up with you when you could be that fit-looking guy having a blast swimming in the breakers every other Sunday for as long as you like?
Wealth is exactly time, and here we are, bordering the era of biotechnology for the repair of aging. Planning ahead for the best possible personal future starts with investment now. Think about it.
This ties in well with what Oscar Wilde wrote:
"Now and then, in the course of the century, a great man of science, like Darwin; a great poet, like Keats; a fine critical spirit, like M. Renan; a supreme artist, like Flaubert, has been able to isolate himself, to keep himself out of reach of the clamorous claims of others, to stand ‘under the shelter of the wall,’ as Plato puts it, and so to realise the perfection of what was in him, to his own incomparable gain, and to the incomparable and lasting gain of the whole world. These, however, are exceptions. The majority of people spoil their lives by an unhealthy and exaggerated altruism – are forced, indeed, so to spoil them. They find themselves surrounded by hideous poverty, by hideous ugliness, by hideous starvation. It is inevitable that they should be strongly moved by all this."
It means you had major success and you are one of the greatest. It means you have status and respect. It means you are capable of financially supporting other people, helping them and help fixing their problems.
Not only can you provide for yourself up to highest of standards of living of 1916, you can provide for 1000s of other peoples up to the higher standards of 1916. Helping people is fun :)