pretty sure a year ago you wouldn't have given trump much of a chance. i feel more qualified to say that than average because i've followed political futures markets for about 10 years, and watched as people consistently do what i suspect you are doing. when you follow / invest in the markets you are forced to translate your vague guesses into real records of your estimated probability at the time. it keeps you much more honest. you'll find its harder to mistakenly see unpredictable events as obvious after they happen, since you were trying to predict them before they happened.

also, its occasionally a valuable reference when talking politics, for instance: comey was fired and lots of people tried to say this was normal and expected, but there was a market that had being fbi director on 6/30 at 95%. pretty much throws cold water on that theory. not that it was anything other than an obvious deflection to begin with, but still kind of interesting.

i encourage you to follow the political futures markets, its a worthwhile endeavor. predictit.com is the standard now that intrade died. my apologies if you are actually speaking from some greater experience though.