Why Segway Failed To Reshape The World

I sincerely doubt any amount of invention would change the fact that it costs $4,000 and essentially does the same thing as a $140 scooter.

Without having read this or the referenced PG essay beforehand, my thought was that the Segway did not take off because it makes you look like a dork. Similar to a unicycle in that regard. Some people don't care about that; most do and that's the big problem with the device.

Great example of the Iron Law of the Market: markets that don't exist don't care how smart you are.

The Segway is a good example of the pepsi challenge / demo vs. reality problem. Just because some product comes across favorably in demos doesn't mean that it won't get mugged by cold, harsh reality. There's a huge gulf between "oh my god that is so awesome and cool" and "here's X months of my discretionary spending budget, I want this".

The segway just isn't very practical, regardless of price. Once price is factored in it's a non-starter. It has less speed, range, safety, off-road capability, and cargo capacity as scooters costing 1/10th or less. It can't be used on roads as a scooter or bicycle can. It has roughly the same capabilities as a battery powered skateboard (an incredibly niche vehicle) at an order of magnitude higher price.

Consider that for the price of a segway someone could buy an carbon fiber bicycle (for when you want to exercise), a gas powered scooter (for when range / speed are a necessity), and a battery powered skateboard (when you don't want to contribute to traffic / pollution).

Sure, the segway is based on really amazing technology, but that's utterly irrelevant to practicality. I a motorcycle with an EFI system written in Erlang is still just a motorcycle, how it's made is beside the point.

The fact that the segway could get so far without taking any criticism seriously is a testament to the human abilities in rationalization and group-think.

Price!