All vehicles will be electric by 2025, says expert
telegraph.co.uk
telegraph.co.uk
zero marginal cost in fuel?
Take a chevy volt (I have one, so speaking from experience). it takes over 20kwh of electricity to fully charge (there's at least 10% loss) and get a bit over 50 miles on charge.
Lets equate this to a prius, that gets about 50mpg.
the cheapest electricity rates in the bay area is about 11.5 cents kwh. or if it takes 20kwh to charge, one is looking at at least $2.30 to "Fill it up". That's not much cheaper than it costs to go 50 miles in a prius.
If gasoline prices crater (as the article expects), it make gas cars even more affordable. Now arguably the electrical generation can be better for the environment than the car itself burning gas, but the argument on fuel costs seems very weak.
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/oil/petrol-cars-will-vani...
Still, would be good at face value.
https://www.enotrans.org/article/washington-preparing-action...
Personally, I think if anything delays the adoption of electric robotaxis to anywhere near the degree Tony Seba is anticipating, it will be battery production capacity. Tesla, with their gigafactory is the only company that's really serious about anticipating that kind of demand, and western manufacturers be in competition with China for all the raw materials needed to mass produce batteries at that scale. That's where I'm anticipating the biggest hangups.
If things move that fast, chances are cities start banning all internal combustion engines, as some already do for older diesels. The average citizen wouldn't feel that bad about that, as it would clean city air, and _renting_ an electric car probably would be cheaper than driving one with an internal combustion engine.
So, _if_ that's true, 'most vehicles will be electric', for me, isn't out of the question. 'All', I would call highly unlikely. I doubt that million mile lifespan, though, especially for the batteries.
Edit: forgot to add that this heading is not what the report says. It starts "We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by eets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transport- as-a-service” (TaaS)."
That's five more years, 5% less, and not a percentage of _cars_, but of passenger miles. That leaves plenty of room for 20% or so gasoline cars rarely driven but kept for old time's sake, used by those who rarely drive, or used in the countryside.