The open source business model is under siege
influxdata.com
influxdata.com
I definitely agree that Amazon, Azure and Google are squeezing the OSS vendors and other SAAS providers by offering their own hosted options. From experience, I know that it's possible to still compete with the large cloud vendors, so I don't think that they're necessarily an existential threat to OSS businesses. But if you're a VC-backed company watching your valuation and your investors are expecting a 100x return, I think that cloud vendors jumping into your market makes the big investor payday a lot less likely. And if you want to compete in the SAAS market your company needs to get really good at the managed hosting business.
IANAL, but if all options are on the table is it possible to have a modified OSS license that would exclude 'hyperscale' cloud vendors from offering a hosted version?
CockroachDB took an interesting two license approach with all code still out in the open: https://www.cockroachlabs.com/blog/how-were-building-a-busin...
Then there was MariaDB's recent closed, with a time bomb to open source later or the BSL (business source license): https://techcrunch.com/2016/08/19/mysql-founder-tries-a-new-...
Both seem like interesting approaches. Hard to tell what, if anything will get the most community and commercial moment behind it. I think that's the key: being able to foster a large community while being able to build a sustainable business around it. Ideally, one that can justify VC investment. If you're building a smaller business then your options definitely change.
In the 80's and 90's, it was harder to pirate software. There were stores like waldensoftware that would sell disks, and you could theoretically install it on as many computers as you wanted. The next arms race was all about how hard it was to copy CD-ROM games, until everyone had a CD burner. While some games and software had copy protection, it wasn't easily centralized until the internet came out (and much after that, even).
Looking at closed source code, specifically Windows, they were basically giving it away. Chrome, firefox, android, giving it away. Now it all seems to be about hosted SaaS, ecosystems, and relying on network effects to carry you over the finish line.
By not giving source/binaries and making you use a hosted & centralized version, they make sure you can't run it standalone, and keep you tied to their product as a subscription (which is great for them).
Sure we've got DRM, and there are ways to make people pay for software, but it seems to be falling out of favor. People would seemingly rather fight ads instead, and "pay" with their attention, or with microtransactions.
Phones, devices and gadgets on the other hand, everyone seems to love those. You have to buy those, and to run the latest best free software, you should buy the newest gadget!