The Sinking of HMS ‘Victoria’ Led the Royal Navy Astray
warisboring.com
warisboring.com
I think of this every time I hear, "XXX is irrelevant in this age of asymmetric warfare." Sure, maybe that system or doctrine is not useful when fighting 1,000 militants blended into a city of 1,000,000. But what happens if/when we get into a shooting war with an adversary that has a real army, a real air force, and/or a real navy? Will it look like Desert Storm? Or will it look like the Bay of Pigs invasion? And could the US in 2040 look like France in 1940?
Either the shooting war ends real quick with a diplomatic solution, or the territories of both adversaries quickly turn into faintly glowing wastelands uninhabitable for a thousand years.
The only warfare that matters today is asymmetrical warfare against relatively low-tech guerrillas and third-tier states. Once you credibly threaten the homeland of any opponent near the US's level of military sophistication, you've already lost the war.
I do largely agree though.
No, that's not correct, and is emblematic of the insistence to "always train for the last war." The reality of what future war might look like is much more nuanced than "either MAD or more COIN." General Milley talked about this last summer, and I tend to agree with his assessment. Incidentally his critique is inline with the posted article about mindless obedience.
http://breakingdefense.com/2016/10/miserable-disobedient-vic...
Ground forces will lack artillery pieces and shells and will find its logistics stretched, and tank mods of recent 20 years were going the wrong way for a shooting war, and new combat vehicles like Stryker and not what a real war requires, so it will have some trouble, but ground forces need to act only in the very end - where enemy is softened enough by airstrikes - and that will work whole lot better than in Desert Storm these days. Much more kills per sortie due to all these smart munitions - and there are sufficient numbers of them to break down any armed forces in the world.
So in essence, air force will make sure that every adversary will be pretty soon down to 'asymmetric warfare' level if not completely defeated. Think Russian WWII partisans. And that is what US Army has an excellent experience dealing with.
Real soldiers have respect for their adversary and since they practice war in war games, they know that no adversary can be discounted. In particular intelligence and willpower count for far more than weaponry. The film Avatar is another good example of how arrogance about the adversary led to defeat.
The enemy that you need to fear is the one who is not afraid to suffer pain and loss. Like the Soviet Union in WWI for instance. Or Syria's Army nowadays.
Haha, read this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
Ochmanek has run the two-day table-top exercise eight times now, including at the Pentagon and at Ramstein Air Base, in Germany, with active-duty military officers. “We played it 16 different times with eight different teams,” Ochmanek says, “always with the same conclusion.”
Can you guess what the conclusion was?
Having a group trained and equipped to specifically fight asymmetric warfare is the way to go. They should also be able to help train police, ambulance etc. get basic services working and monitor + prosecute corruption in the regime that's been installed.
Betty's taking the initiative the way he did without telling Jellicoe what he faced or where he was going could have cost Britain the battle, as Beattie sailed into the German trap. Scheer's about turn when his T was crossed saved the fleet, so you could say the superb manoeuvring discipline of the German fleet saved it. You could also say that prioritising speed and heavy gunnery over armour (German ships prioritised armour) in the British battle cruisers didn't help them when they came up against German battleships. Or that the German gunnery was superior, or that the British munitions appeared to malfunction (or was that the German armour). There was, however, at least one instance in which faulty signalling from Beatty's flagship was very costly.
I think I understand the point the author is trying to make, but I would need a much clearer account of what he thought went wrong at Jutland to appreciate or agree with it.
Quick edit: though difficult with all of the smoke, the flag signalling did work as intended at Jutland. Flag signalling relies heavily on skilled signal officers. Beattie did not have a good one, which is why he didn't get a crushing victory at Dogger Bank (his signaler sent his entire squadron after the wrong ship). Jellicoe managed to maneuver the fleet quite well once the main battle commenced.
To get that account I highly recommend jumping straight to the book the article cites at the top, Andrew Gordon's The Rules of the Game; it's a brilliant work, packed with detail but accessibly written and clearly argued. This article recapitulates some of Gordon's arguments, but the book itself is such a pleasure to read that if you are at all interested in the subject you owe it to yourself to check it out.
The synopsis / review this book offers is a good one but it could, perhaps, be generalised. Though Gordon doesn't make it explicit as such, the lesson I ended up taking away from the book is that cultures tend to go through alternating periods of encouraging initiative or obedience. You can see this in armies (perhaps the classic example is the Prussian / German army: it started off with Frederick the Great as an army of obedience; became (at the top levels at least) an army of initiative under von Moltke the Elder; and (in the West, at least) went back to an army of obedience for most of WWI), technology (look at any well known company's research lab culture), and even wider society. If I had to briefly summarise the consequences of this, it tends to come down to when two broadly equal organisations square up against each other: if one uses obedience as its model, and the other initiative, the latter will tend to win; if the two both use the same system, the outcome seems to be mostly random.
[That said, Jutland isn't a great example of this in my opinion, as it was so protracted and its outcome so muddy. Poor ship design and some sloppy practises with explosives meant the British came off worse in terms of casualties, so arguably the Germans won the day. However, the (smaller) German Navy realised that it had only survived through luck, and basically stayed in port for the rest of the war, whereas the British were out sailing in force less than a week later and continuing the blockade of Germany. The Germans eventually thought the only way to win at sea was unrestricted submarine warfare, which turned out to be perhaps the biggest PR disaster in history. I was astonished to realise that the German Navy's inferiority complex from Jutland persisted into WWII: the German Navy stalled shamelessly when asked to help invade Britain, as the lesson they learnt from Jutland was that the British Navy could never be defeated, so what was the point of trying? So Jutland had complex long-term effects that defy easy classification. Which is, perhaps, why it's so fascinating.]
To me, the only question is whether Beatty misused his battlecruisers or whether they were fatally flawed to begin with: whether their speed advantage was really worth anything. And whether the result would be a total British victory rather that just a strategic one.
As for the overall point, success breeds overconfidence, which breeds failure, and so on.
The Royal Navy differs from the British Army in taking a more holistic view of traditions and history. Trafalgar is celebrated by all every year, Taranto is celebrated by all aviators every year - rather than only those descended from units involved. This combined with the length of time to draw lessons from has led to the saying "The Navy has traditions, the Army history and the Air Force has habits. And nasty, dirty habits they are too".
And yeah, bottle of whisky on your leave and you can't work on subs anymore (though you do get to keep the Dolphin pin apparently).
Note that in modern Russia there is a military tradition "Russians do not give up!" which many soldiers, especially the special forces, adhere to. This is partly what drove the rebels in Donbass to stand their ground in the face of apparently superior forces. Combined with the fact that they were literally defending their homes and families, the Ukraine army had difficulty making and holding any advances against them.
War is one of those areas where ideology does not seem to have a role, but if you expand ideology to include the internal psychology of the soldiers and their beliefs and motivations, then ideology may indeed be paramount. It's the political ideology that is meaningless. This is seen in WWII Soviet Union where Stalin relaxed the strict Communist ideology in favor of one of family, motherland, ethnic spirit.
While most modern safety advice recommends empowering line workers to report safety failures, this also extends to engineering quality. The quintessential example of devolving power down to individuals is Andon[0], the most recognisable feature of which is a little cord any line worker in the factory can pull to stop the entire line.
For a serious discussion of how much initiative is too much or too little, read MCDP 1, "Warfighting", the USMC manual on how to run a battle. Good military forces work hard at that balance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link#Two-man...
Apparently the reasoning is that the UK is so close to potential enemies that there would be no time for the PM or equivalent to give authorization - the so called "4 minute warning" being very optimistic. The US is much further away from the Soviets/Russia so there would be far more time to broadcast a launch order. Also the UK is notoriously cheap about these kinds of things!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permissive_Action_Link
The combination was changed in 1977.
Must have been quite a site to have the Forth full of ships though.
Reminds me of a fiction quote:
> The general was only warming up. [...] "You infants who've come up in the past decade and more have no concept of combat. These long periods of unbroken peace weaken the Service. If they go on much longer, when a crisis comes there'll be no one left who's had any real practice in a crunch."
> Miles's eyes crossed slightly, from internal pressure. Then should His Imperial Majesty provide a war every five years, as a convenience for the advancement of his officers' careers? His mind boggled slightly over the concept of "real practice." Had Miles maybe acquired his first clue why this superb-looking officer had washed up on Kyril Island?
(The Vor Game, by Lois McMaster Bujold)
The vehement disagreement is almost repulsing me to RTFA.