Ask HN: How do you know you are still in early market?

I just recently started to realize that the question is much deeper than it seems at the first glance.

Imagine you are in the middle of 1990s, looking at the Internet you may think it's already done/finished and there is nothing big you can invent. You have perfect Netscape browser and very convenient Yahoo along with cool AltaVista.

If you were being told about yet another brand new search engine (Google), you may think - why those guys are wasting their time, there is no chance to beat Yahoo.

Yet, Google became monopolist amongst search engines.

Then you watch how dot-com bubble burst in 2000.

Then you may think, the Internet is done for sure. There will be no second company which grow as fast as Google did.

Then, you will observe rise of Facebook. In the beginning you won't believe it could grow THAT big, after all it looks like match.com for Harvard students.

Then you will discover somebody wrote Bitcoin. You won't even recognize it's a currency because it's just tokens in p2p network with no connection to real world.

Then after reading stories about Silk Road, you finally started understanding that you can use as a currency literally anything as long as it hard to reproduce and in limited supply.

But watching Bitcoin crash in 2011, you may think that Bitcoin reached its limits.

In beginning of 2015, you would think crypto-currencies are just a bubble. Nobody in their right mind would spend their time and effort to create yet another crypto-currency.

Yet, Ethereum started in 2015 and quickly become the second largest crypto-currency.

I tend to always think it's too late and market is already done.

So returning back to my question: How do you know you are still in early market?

As an answer, it would be awesome to have some references to insights from some founders or VCs.