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palakchokshi

2 self driving Teslas in the garage (making money when not used) $150,000

1 power wall battery pack $7,000

1 Solar Roof $80,000

Subtract

$15,000 in Federal tax credits for both cars

$5,000 in California tax credits for both cars

30% of 80,000 = $24,000 Solar Investment tax credit

$237,000 - $44,000

Grand Total $193,000

Calculate savings

$240 per month in gas

$100-$300 per month in electricity

$1000 - $2000 earned by the cars while not used by owner (10 years into the future)

$1340 to $2540 per month

$193,000/1340 = 144 months = 12 years to recover costs

$193,000/2540 = 76 months = 6.33 years to recover costs

Take away the income from the cars

$193,000/540 = 357 months = 30 years to recover costs

If PGE gives you money for putting excess electricity into the grid then you can recover costs faster.

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I don't understand "income from cars" - do you mean as autonomous taxis? Pretty sure you need to then take into account increased insurance, maintenance costs as well as taxes on that income.

Also if this autonomous taxi thing becomes a highly profitable gig (as you suggest), you'll quickly run into a big supply/demand problem. There's only a finite number of people who need mid-day cab rides.

>There's only a finite number of people who need mid-day cab rides.

Yeah, it's a contradiction in the business model. Everyone will be able to afford to own a Tesla because everyone will be able to make money from the cars driving everyone around?

There will still be a barrier to owning a Tesla due to the upfront cost of buying one. The fact that it'll be able to pay itself off over time is immaterial to the affordability of at time of purchase.

Actually by the time full autopilot is acceptable insurance will actually go down since data will support that in full autopilot the probability of accident is lower than human driving.

Maintenance costs on an electric self driving car will actually be lower than a traditional car [1]

You are correct though that the income will have taxes applied to it.

[1] http://insideevs.com/ev-vs-ice-maintenance-the-first-100000-...

Maintenance costs might be lower for EVs, although as someone who gets his hands dirty on his ICE car I doubt it's going to be significant; most of the time I'm fixing stuff EVs also have (brakes, suspension, sensors, tires, paint damage, lights, wiper blades and fluid, trunk gas struts, indicator stalk, washing the car etc.). I'm also hearing from colleagues of decreased lifetime esp. on brakes of EVs since they get used too infrequently because of regenerative braking, so they get stuck due to rust.

But my point wasn't that but this: using your EV as a taxi will increase maintenance costs (and depreciation) vs. leaving it in the garage.

You're not considering the future value of the dollars you're paying up front? What about subsidies disappearing?

And making $2000 a month off the cars is delusional. Why would they even bother to sell you the car if they could make that money monthly for 10 years?

> $240 per month in gas

$50 for Prius, $100 for descent Audi

> $100-$300 per month in electricity

let's settle at $120, unless you run a server farm at home, for which you will need more solar panels anyway

Take away highly speculated income from cars $193,000/240 = ~800 months = ~65 years to recover costs

More realistic

CA tax credits are gone for those making over 150k.

...for single filers

and $300,000 for joint filers

How do the cars make money when in the garage?

Tesla will be operating a car sharing network comprised of self-driving cars. From the master plan (https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux):

> You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app and have it generate income for you while you're at work or on vacation, significantly offsetting and at times potentially exceeding the monthly loan or lease cost. This dramatically lowers the true cost of ownership to the point where almost anyone could own a Tesla. Since most cars are only in use by their owner for 5% to 10% of the day, the fundamental economic utility of a true self-driving car is likely to be several times that of a car which is not.

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