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Comment by SirLJ | Hacker News Reader

Tesla acquired SolarCity in November in a deal worth $2.1 billion.

At the event, Musk said Tesla's roof would price competitively with normal roofs and could even cost less.

"It's looking quite promising that a solar roof will actually cost less than a normal roof before you even take the value of electricity into account," Musk said at the event. "So the basic proposition would be: Would you like a roof that looks better than a normal roof, lasts twice as long, costs less, and, by the way, generates electricity? It's like, why would you get anything else?"

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I think he was specifically referring to slate and/or clay roofs, not asphalt shingle roofs.

Like most similar comparisons, it's essentially "our cheapest X will be the same as the most expensive of Y."

From all the comments I've read, it really sounds like it's going to make more sense outside of the US. Here in the UK the vast majority of roofs are either clay tiles or slates which are expected to last 50 or more years, but the US seems to largely fit cheaper asphalt shingles and replace them more often.

At the moment our slate roof is fine, but when it needs replacing I'll certainly look into the Tesla tiles. Hopefully we'll be able to hold off for long enough that they will have come down in price. I'm sceptical that they will be worth it, but if they make sense then we would definitely think about it.

As a Canadian, our common perception of the UK is that it's always cloudy and rainy. If that's true, would it make sense to put solar tiles on a home if the ROI is negative or would take a few hundred years?

But that does not make more sense. If they last 50 years, but your solar roof only has a 30 year warranty then you might look at a complete solar roof replacement, while your average roof would still be good another 20-30 years.

Most of these things require high production amounts which allow refinement and bulk orders.

The first Tesla Roadster's ended up being around $110K.

They're now doing Model 3's for $35K.

I expect the same with the roofs -- they will drop price drastically, but they need to get them out there first.

They haven't delivered a Model 3 yet.

That's not the point. Sales from their previous, more expensive models allowed them to ramp up production capacity for the Model 3.

Sure it's the point. If they don't actually hit a $35,000 price then it is a bit much to credit them for bringing the price down to $35,000.

35K is also the base MSRP which almost never happens in a car sale.

Not even close. Enormous borrowing and investment raising allowed them to ramp up production capacity.

strange how they didnt do that right out of the gate... maybe nobody would lend and invest in a company with no history of building a car, let alone one that was deemed impossible? now lets put on our after the fact analysis hat, where cause and effect are blurred and previous uncertainties are already resolved and we can conclude whatever what we set out to conclude. and thats how we get from "this car cant be built" to "i could have done it".

>They're now doing Model 3's for $35K.

What do you mean it isn't the point? They haven't even started production on the Model 3, let alone delivered one for $35k, which is very unlikely to happen. So it's yet to be seen what they'll deliver for 35k. And by the way, the second model(turned out to be the X) was also supposed to be cheaper than the first (Model S). It wasn't. Musk is already announcing the 4th model will be cheaper than the 3.

Meanwhile you can buy a Chevy Bolt today with 238 mile range, MSRP $37k before tax credits, ~$30k after.

The more upscale BMW i3 with 195 mile range can also be bought today, at ~$35k after tax credits.

If GM can build enough Bolts to keep up with demand (the waiting list here in Europe is apparently 12 months now), and with the other big players trying to catch up (Hyundai, Nissan, Ford all expected to have 200+ mile range models in 2018), Tesla has to hurry up and deliver on their target price, delivery dates and volume.

It's not the point. The point is they are doing something drastically cheaper than it was, because of mass production.

Even if it comes out to be 40K or 45K -- that's still way lower than it was when it started.

You can get nitpicky about the specifics, it's also completely expected that Musk is always late but always delivers, and usually for a little bit more than expected. This is his MO.

> At the event, Musk said Tesla's roof would price competitively with normal roofs and could even cost less.

I think we may need to start applying a "multiplier" to any costs or delivery dates that Elon mentions. I love him to death but he does have quite a history of underestimating these things.

He may have also been implicitly including an offset for the energy cost. A bit disingenuous, but they've done that before.

At the roof launch event, Elon was very clear that it priced competitively with high-end roofs. And that appears to be what the actual price competes with.

I'm 21, thus I have no idea what roofs normally cost. I assume they're very very heavily below ~80k? For a "regular" house, what would a roof cost? 4k? 10k? 500?

We just got an estimate for our house (~2400 sq ft single story home) and the estimates were from 10k - 13k.

Add in the various types of metal roofs and the price can double for a similar sized house.

I had my (very boxy and boring) 1800 sq ft house reroofed with 30 year asphalt shingles for ~$7k, including tearing off both previous layers of shingles.

I looked at getting a metal roof, and standing seam was going to cost about $16k.

Edited to add: The cost of living is cheap where I am.

>I looked at getting a metal roof, and standing seam was going to cost about $16k.

Same. There seems to be a subset of HackerNews who thinks that most homeowners can pay $50k for a roof and $35k for a car. It's cool high-end stuff, but certainly is not mainstream.

$35k for a car is absolutely mainstream - in fact that's just about the average price for one...

[1]https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/05/04/new-car...

For a new car. Lots of people buy used.

That's the average for a new car. Most people don't buy new cars.

True, but from the car manufacturer's point of view, all of their customers buy new cars, so comparing what is low-range or high-range to other new cars makes sense.

The used-car market in the US shifts three times as many cars as the new-car market.

It varies pretty widely based on the material - asphalt shingles are the cheapest of the cheap, and that's what most people would be comparing this to. Tile/slate are much more expensive.

Tesla's initial product is actually intended to compete against premium roofs, not low-end. There are lots of places where you're not even allowed to install a low-end roof due to homeowner association rules.

A 2000 sq ft tile roof would cost about $20k in a large city. The same roof with asphalt shingles would cost about $8000. The warranty difference from 10 to 30 years, the slope and shape of the roof, and local disposal and labor differences will all affect the price.

I can give a quote on the sort of roof materials this competes with.

I had to have the tile roof on my 1923 house replaced due to a massive hail storm (in roughly 2006). The house's footprint is about 1000 square feet, so not entirely sure of the actual roof area (probably about 1200 sq/ft), but the bill for removal of the old roof, some repairs to the sheathing, and replacement with new tiles was about $55,000 - materials (Ludowici tiles) and labor.

The solar roof quote for our roof from the Telsa website was about $48,000. So, in my case it would have been competitive.

My new tile roof has a 75 year warranty, btw.

My roof is 1600 sq ft. It had a metal roof on it, which is considered more expensive than asphalt. It was 40 years old, which is the how long metal roofs are expected to last. I replaced it myself for around $2000. Most of the cost was $1600 for the metal roof. Then there was $400 in special nails and trim parts and sealer. It would have cost a little more if it wasn't metal before since I'd have to have added the spacers. Metal and asphalt replacement are sort of DIY possible, but asphalt is dirty heavy work. Metal is less dirty and dangerous, just remember to wear leather gloves. Also probably don't attempt if one's roof has more than a couple gables etc. It's better if you've done it before in any case. To have someone else replace the roof would have cost at least twice as much. Could be three times as much in some parts of the country.

If I were to have switched to slate or terra cotta or glass solar tiles I'd have to tear down the roof and rebuild it because normal houses in the US are not designed to hold that sort of weight, it requires a stronger roof structure, and sometimes stronger walls to hold the heavier roof. Possibly the rest of the structure would have to be reinforced as well. Doing this correctly requires a consultation with a licensed structural engineer. That sort of roof rebuild would cost from $20,000 - $50,000 depending on the scope needed according to the engineer, and that's before adding the roofing materials.

+1 for adding in the cost to support the extra weight.

Many homes, even ones they're building now, are not designed to support anything more than a few layers of standard asphalt shingles.

BTW, it's ridiculous that we're talking "down" to asphalt shingles now because of this. Some of those come with 50+-year warranties now...

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