The west biggest mistake - thinking that you could outsource the bottom layers of the value pyramid and there won't be local layers forming on top of them.
And when china achieve scale on something with good quality - game over man, game over.
And when china achieve scale on something with good quality - game over man, game over.
Modernised China is a huge quality of life win for the Chinese and a lot of others throughout the world who gained also.
Why do you think that will happen? The chinese labour force is rapidly shrinking, lower end manufacturing is starting to move south, and they've just figured out ball point pens. I don't see a bright future for them at all.
In 10-15 years time there is nothing to say Chinese manufacturing won't capitulate to $Next_Developing_economy in the same manner and surrender their bulk manufacturing dominance in favor of moving up the chain.
Edit. I should add the interesting part of all this is Patents - imagine if ball point pen tips were a patented design...
I think china struggles because it's only semi capitalist and still has too many relics of a planned economy.
How is China the leader of the world in high speed trains? They're all based off of designs from Japan and Germany.
China is only the leader in consumer software apps inside of China, and only then because it outright bans foreign competition.
The fact is China is the worlds most populous country but leads the world in absolutely nothing. And please be clear - this is not a criticism of the Chinese people - of course they have the capacity. But central planning and top down directives will never lead to world beating results.
Look at my other post. One of the startups I worked at moved out of China because of the cost got to high.
Its a cycle. As they become more open, more western and more regulated it will change again.
tchaffee 2 hours ago [-]
"Leads the world in absolutely nothing... #1 manufacturer in the world."
Which was correct. I think you got it wrong.
What things does it manufacture or do better than anyone else?
#1 manufacturer is entirely due to a huge population and low costs - both advantages are disappearing.
What unique way forward does China have? Another 5 year plan?
Population and low cost are the two biggest reasons China has overtaken the US. There's nothing miraculous about Chinas position in the global economy - it's a huge country. If anything, it still underperforms. Much smaller nations are producing passenger aircraft and automobiles used all over the world.
Average IQ is 105.
Which just goes to show you the disastrous effects of socialism, even though it's been curtailed. A high IQ nation with no wars - it should by all rights be a first world country like its eastern neighbours, or indeed - like its Special Administrative Regions.
My family on the other hand will continue to do business with them because they have a lot to bring to the table.
Why would my thoughts on the economic outlook huge nation of over a billion affect who I do business with? Why would I assume a Chinese business or individual has nothing to bring to the table? The fact I don't think I'll be taking international flights on a Chinese made jet any time soon doesn't really affect my view of things like business relationships.
> Much smaller nations are producing passenger aircraft and automobiles used all over the world.
China is the world's largest auto manufacturer. Vehicles are one of their top 10 exports. Please revisit my point above about educating yourself about what is really happening there.
Quite.
http://www.actualfunnypictures.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/201...
Europe didn't suffer when Lowell stole the loom plans in the 1800s or when they bought a lot of gear from the US following WWII.
And don't forget as China grows and labor costs rise there will still be plenty of lower-wage places like Burma, Viet Nam, much of Africa..."game" still in progress.
Trade is only zero sum if you have a zero sum mentality. If you have $400 in your pocket and would rather have an iPhone, and Apple has an iPhone and would rather have $400 do you really think that one of you was taken advantage of if you swap? Both are happier.
China's R&D budget is 2nd in the world (only behind the US and ahead of the EU) when PPP adjusted: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_researc...
"In the five-year plan it announced last year, the national government said China would boost its annual production of industrial robots to 100,000 by 2020.
At the current rate, the country is on track to exceed that target, assuming the numbers from the statistics bureau can be trusted—not a given in China (the bureau did not respond to questions Quartz sent by email). Meanwhile, over 3,000 industrial robot makers have surfaced in the country in the past five years, according to the China Robot Industry Alliance, a trade group.
China is already the world’s largest producer of industrial robots, supplying about 27% of the global market since 2015, according to the International Federation of Robotics (IFR). It’s also the largest buyer of robots. According to the IFR and Bernstein Research, China’s factories spent over $3 billion acquiring industrial robots in 2015."
https://qz.com/922742/china-is-rapidly-making-robots-that-wi...
Also, there have been a few stories in the past year on HN discussing the quality of engineers that the Chinese education system is turning out.
The contract manufactures in China like Flextronics and Jabil have locations outside of China now and are expanding them. Heck from this map - Jabil has more outside of China:
They also figured shanghai tower and aircraft carriers and their first commercial airplane hull while being busy with ballpens. Shanghai auto expo also showed a lot of new hybrids, all electric domestic brands and models.
I think they will be fine.
Then again, at the same time Reagan's OMB director Darman famously said, "Potato chips or silicon chips, who cares? They're both just chips". Even then I thought he was wrong.
What, look at the fact Japanese cars out-sell American ones three decades later (~12% vs ~19.6%)? American car makers were even trying to copy their methods in the 90's (NUMMI & Geo, Ford+Mazda, etc...).
Japan, on the other hand, is a basket case, and China faces a similar demographic hurdle.