Instagram Is Becoming Facebook’s Next Facebook
nytimes.com
nytimes.com
Ubiquity is an interesting thought - there are very few apps that an average person uses on a daily basis that _aren't_ owned by Facebook. Four of the most used apps (Facebook, Messenger, Instagram, WhatsApp) are owned by the same parent company.
In China, we see an analogous example - to an even greater extent - WeChat is practically the de facto mobile OS. Where do we go from here? Hardware? WeChat seems most likely to do this, from my perspective. What happens when Tencent acquires Xiaomi and creates WeChatOS phones? What happens when Facebook does similar and Mark Zuckerberg controls nearly every waking moment of most Americans? Who is the Apple to the United States v. Facebook monopoly?
That's called jumping the shark. In this context, the point in time where people get so concerned about a powerful company, that a form of outlandish and irrational fear starts to set in. See: IBM 1970s, early 1980s; Microsoft late 1990s; Google today; Amazon soon; Facebook tomorrow. In most historical instances of monopoly or near monopoly, by the time the fear got really extreme, the company's power was already near a peak or in decline.
I wish I could call it a mere exaggeration, the notion of Zuckerberg 'controlling nearly every waking moment for Americans' - but it's far beyond that.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/sep/03/entertainment/la-et-...
I also heard an interview somewhere/sometime where he indicated the same thing: Although popular in our lexicon, the show actually did not go into a death spiral after that episode. It was hugely successful. Nevertheless, the term remains.
So many ads you can slap in someone's face before they get put off.
When I was active on Facebook, most people I knew had dozens of fake accounts.
Keep in mind that inside of AOL, we thought of GNN as "AOL2000". Yeah, that worked out real good. ;)
I've gotten to a 1000 followers by regularly adding photos from my travels. I get a few hundred likes per photo and a couple of dozen of generic comments.And the occasional DM. Is this it ? Even by the standards of social media, it feels very superificial to me.
Facebook 10 years ago was much more exciting.
"I want everybody to see this photo I took"
"Cheers, I have seen your photo"
I guess that's extremely compelling to folks.
"Cheers, I have read your comment."
National Geographic has a few accounts (natgeo, natgeocreative..), NASA shares interesting tidbits about current missions, Magnum photography has interesting pieces of visual journalism, many unknown journalists use it to explore projects that do not always resonate with current trends in the media/their workplace.. There's decent content on Instagram, although it isn't easy to find.
Maybe it's just me, but for once I'd love to see a journalist be a bit more frank with these siloed cyber-utopionists and ask some hard questions about what social value they're actually creating - rather than chewing over sign-up metrics and scaling strategies. Anecdotally, I've never seen one interview with Zuckerberg where a journalist actually calls him out on his "we're just connecting people" poppycock.
Citation needed.
Email and text message have a different feel and offer different features.
I totally disagree with the things parts of Facebook is doing, and I wish they gave half a damn about where they are driving us.
For example, just last week I had an acquaintance who was potentially taking an internship in the city I moved to after I graduated college. This is an acquaintance that I haven't seen in over five years, and was never close with. The kind of person you'd be 100% never seeing again, since we had basically lost touch, minus the whole "we're Facebook friends" aspect.
Granted, I know one of the major gripes about Facebook on HN is that having a lot of friends on Facebook facilitates a lot of useless spam about people you don't quite care about. I totally understand this view.
But on the other hand, I learned that this acquaintance of mine might be stopping in the city I'm in, so far away from our hometown, and being the adult that I am and getting older and older by the minute, knowing just how hard it is to make and maintain friendships as you get older, I decided to give this acquaintance a call (on Facebook of course!) to see if they were free to meetup.
It's about enabling a different type of relationship where you are sharing your life with people you don't necessarily want to have a constant conversation with.
Email and text messages both suffer from the problem that they are controlled by the sender.
Facebook flips this. The wall reflects what I want to see.
It might have a hypocrisy problem. People will typically claim to like certain things (high-status cultural artifacts) while mostly consuming other things (trash TV, fast food etc). However, it doesn't benefit from driving people away.
"a tool that is explicitly designed to maximize your desire for coming back to it"
WTF! They want to serve me well? Those bastards!
You know what keeps me coming back? My sister calling me to tell me that there's photos and a video on her Facebook page.
What does this mean exactly? Facebook is providing tremendous value to me personally as a way of keeping in touch with family and friends but I guess you're asking from a higher perspective.
I have no doubt that intentions can be good. But I find it very hard to believe that tech founders never consider both good and bad consequences of a more connected world. Fake news is one, but then there are others like the rapid decrease of our attention span, higher appetite for instant gratification, higher addiction to the net, lower self-esteem (or the opposite!) and so on. All of this has a profound effect on us as individuals and as a society.
I'm glad that we now can have a conversation like this without the risk of being labelled "Luddite". (And yes, HN was also like this a while back.)
Attention span (as in the idea we have one, not just Facebook's connection to it), at the very least, is a myth: https://www.geneticliteracyproject.org/2016/07/25/another-mo...
https://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?q=social+media+self+est...
Facebook isn't the only player of course.
Regarding attention span - sorry I defined it as the amount of quality attention spent on something - I draw my experiences as an educator.
This is what FB and instagram is about, getting you on the mouse wheel of usage so they can sell your attention.
The people in charge of Instagram may have used more and more of Facebook's tools, looked at better analytics, tweaked, used lessons learned from Facebook, etc.
While I agree it's unlikely that Facebook left them entirely alone I don't think it's necessarily fair to say they meddled just because things have changed. Nothing stays the same especially in the tech industry.
Contrasting this with Oculus; I think IG was given a lot less hands on MGMT.
[1] That one is a bit of a stretch, but you can already "follow people" and they market themselves as a social network, so...
Even companies like banks are using individual Next Best Action models to determine what marketing decision is right specifically for you rather than something generic to your demographic.
Having said that, I don't think it's "Facebook" doing this. This has probably been Instagram's approach to product from day one.
A portion of users enjoy using Instagram because they consider it a FB "alternative", and that they're privacy is at less risk by diversifying social media platforms.
Ads in my mind are zero sum, so I'm pretty clueless on this front.
One thing I find interesting is the simultaneous popularity of these newfound distractions and task/project management software. Are we solving problems that were intentionally created and calling that progress?
Do a thought experiment and you'll find a nugget of truth to the idea. Imagine two competitors who are otherwise identical. What would their AdWords buying strategy be?
In this instance, advertising is fuelling user acquisition which fuels profit.
Imagine that in a world without ads, game revenue is: Game A: 600, Game B: 600, Game C: 600
But then A spends 300 on ads: Game A: 1200 (-300), Game B: 300, Game C: 300
In this case, game A "spent money to make money", but the overall industry's revenue was the same, and part of the profits now went to ads.
And it makes sense: advertising doesn't give consumers more money to spend, so the size of the pie is fixed, all they can do it redistribute it, extracting a slice in the process.
For instance, my younger brother is a fan of the Darksiders game series. I saw an advertisement for the new instance of the game. I told him about it. When it reaches a price he wants he'll buy it. But until it does, he's not going to sit around buying other games just to fill up the budget.
Mostly the cash budget is substantially higher than the time budget so people aren't going to buy a thing they don't like just to fill the time.
If ads help with allocation closer to people's real preferences, they're a good thing.
If ads help with allocation closer to people's real preferences, they're a good thing.
Maybe, but is there any evidence that they actually do?
Since it's not a distinguishing feature of advertisements, I think it's a pointless discussion.
Except that's not what ads are about. Ads are about selling stuff. People smoked cigarettes to be sexy, and then got cancer. Maybe they did get some extra sex, but I doubt it.
I am not opposed to the idea of advertising, but what we have now is really a form of manipulation rather than information.
> If ads help with allocation closer to people's real preferences, they're a good thing.
I can name a lot of things fulfilling this role, but none of them are ads. When I built a PC, do you honestly think I looked at advertisements for components? Hell no. My primary source were subreddits like /r/BuildAPC that have guides on what to watch out for when shopping for PC components, and price comparison sites, particularly those that have a ton of filters. Those resources are either run by a devoted community, or they earn a commission when directing me to an online shop where I can buy the product of my choosing. But they're not manipulating my choice in the way that ads are designed to do.
So while advertising doesn't give consumers more money to spend, it can persuade them to spend higher portions of their entertainment budget on games.
The mobile gaming industry was used as an example, but even if they grow their pie by reducing some other industry's, the claim is still true.
You can think of them as improved communication that connects people who are useful to each other.
Ads are an incredibly shitty solution to the as-yet-unsolved problem of discovery.
On top of that, advertising is effectively forced on people. Given that many people actively try to avoid advertising, it seems clear that this is a negative point.
If advertising was objective and unbiased, and it was only presented to people actively seeking information about products, it would be a net benefit to society. As it stands, I believe it is a net detriment.
The end goal is as simple as it looks: support a new medium.
First it was newspapers and magazines and mail, then the radio, next television, and finally we've landed on the web. And in the future there will probably be another new medium that ad dollars shift to.
The strategy is simple -- rip market share away from the competitors. And it's working. Why? Because you can more aggressively target intent, track results easier, and garner more impressions since the inventory is both cheaper and plentiful on the web.
[1] Source for zero-sum as industry claim: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-03/advertisi... (TL;DR ad spending as % of U.S. GDP has remained relatively constant since the 1920s)
Me: are you on Facebook? Cousin: no, it's for old people. I'm on instagram.
But Facebook is a good enough platform, so why? Teens will always seek out places where they can be their usual obnoxious selves without the prying eyes of judgmental adults. Instagram isn't the destination for teens, it's just a waypoint until the Instagram users grow up, and then there'll be a new network that everyone will flock to.
In the end, Facebook will still win. Ignoring the fact that Facebook owns instagram, the Instagram users will get married and have kids, and they'll want to share those moments with their parents and grandparents on Facebook. It's still the most widely used AND most robust of the social networks.
- "Look how much beer I can chug in one go while half naked in the snow" -"That's nice love, are you coming for dinner? Love, Mum"
Granted, I'm biased by the virtue of being more practiced in reigning in addiction :)
@kaorduaoishiho, at it's core, google has never understood ^social^.
Google also produced a knock-off of Facebook -- Google Plus -- which is still going but ultimately failed.
In both cases, Google got the technology wrong. However, getting the technology right is still no guarantee of success. There's more to it than that....
Sorry, facebook and google are for me big no no. I can't understand why people use these platforms. Why not to use alternatives ?
I hope people would think before using these services more.
And for whatever reason, most people don't care that much about the things you listed as big dangers.
Web search engines:
- Outride (2001)
- Kaltix (2003)
- Akwan Information Technologies (2005)
- Orion (2006)
- Aardvark (2010)
- PlinkArt (2010)
- Metaweb (2010)
- Like.com (2010)
- Apture (2011)
Granted, none of these were very high-profile, and Google hasn't acquired any other web search engines either, but to say "Google has never had to buy a competitor" is naive.
They've also spent a lot of money acquiring competing companies that aren't related to their core business. YouTube competed with Google Video before they were acquired. DoubleClick competed with AdSense (and arguably, Google stole DoubleClick's model). Waze competed (and still competes) with Google Maps.
Acquisitions aren't a sign of weakness.
YouTube competed hard in video; think about search w/o the "video" tab. Waze improved maps.
> I'm looking for the next Google
I mean, who isn't? The "next Google" can look a lot different than Google depending on what you mean by that