Greenspun: Let's stop investing in our kids
blogs.law.harvard.edu
blogs.law.harvard.edu
- That the current salaries of recent college graduates represent their probable average output over their lifetime. This is absurd for reasons that I hope I don't need to explain to all you startup founders.
- That the salary of a graduate is a total representation of that person's value to society (and, transitively, of their education). This is wrong even if you think the total value of an education is in employment. Economics teaches us that for all voluntary economic transactions there are producer and consumer surpluses. It must therefore be the case that an employed person's value to their employer is at least the salary the person is paid. And as cynical as I am about college education sometimes, even I don't believe that the complete value of the education is in its utility for the labor market.
- That there is a reliable way to make a ten percent return on investment overseas. Not as far as I've been able to find, and if you can find it you could probably make a lot of money selling the information to a big player in the American bond market.
- And that the normal personal investment into a college education is really $300,000. This is anti-factual. It is probably also wrong that each marginal elementary schooler costs $200,000, but I can't say for sure about that.
As rhetoric, this article plays well. As honest observation of the American educational system, it's a miserable failure.
- Public employees make up an ever growing percentage of the workforce, which still has to be paid for by the private sector.
- Many public employees have large unfunded pension obligations that are very hard to cut.
- As such, new graduates need to have lots of earning power to keep the whole country running.
- His experience with college graduates both in the computer field and the in the context of flight school and his reviews of curricula imply to him that students actually learn very little, and are no more prepared than non-U.S. students to generate lots of value.
- His exposure is mostly to Boston area students, who on average pay a lot for school, or someone else does via scholarships.
So I don't think he means the blog post literally, but in context he's just offering another data point that supports his thesis that the U.S. in economic trouble in the medium to long term.
Of course, that definition of opportunity cost neglects the pleasures (both intellectual and hedonistic) of spending four years on a campus rather than a job site.
"That the current salaries of recent college graduates represent their probable average output over their lifetime." It doesn't represent that at all. It is saying that the value due to education can be roughly approximated by the starting salary. The gains from there are then more based on experience/work, not the education. Of course, you ignore the money made while you would have been in school. You also ignore the periods of unemployment.
"I don't believe that the complete value of the education is in its utility for the labor market." The fundamental question though is how much we should pay for it. I could read books, do "home work", and watch MIT lectures on the internet for a lower price. Many people are looking for ROI.
"That there is a reliable way to make a ten percent return on investment overseas." A rough number, but definitely too high. The world is over-invested anyway as a result of too much money having been created.
"And that the normal personal investment into a college education is really $300,000. This is anti-factual. It is probably also wrong that each marginal elementary schooler costs $200,000, but I can't say for sure about that." I don't think it says personal investment, the distributed cost counts too. It costs about 20k per year here for elementary school and 25k for high school, to be conservative. You don't need to look at the marginal costs here, because they are your costs.
That is indeed what it says, but that reasoning is wrong.
He's commenting that most of these expensive kids are unemployed and therefore make nothing. That is due to the economy. However the first job they get is likely to be at a higher salary than non-college students, and a college degree enjoys a permanent advantage throughout life in getting jobs and getting raises.
Even several years out of college, many employers will look at the presence of a degree when hiring. And it is an advantage again if you need to switch careers. (Which is becoming very common.)
But where's the educational correlation between a degree in a specific discipline and a change to what is presumably a different discipline? If I have a degree in Literature, I'm an editor at a publishing firm, and I get fired and then get a job in, say, the biological sciences, how is my degree intrinsically an advantage other than as a barrier to entry (a weeding-out tool) to the professional class, which is not purely educational in nature?
From the point of view of the employer, a degree indicates that the possessor has, among other things, a certain level of intelligence, literacy (not a small deal in a country where over half the country is functionally illiterate!), experience in learning, general background, work ethic, and socio-economic status. It is therefore a somewhat useful filter to apply for many professions.
Of course most of those traits have nothing to do with what you actually learned in university. And there certainly are plenty of successful people with all of those traits who did not bother with university. So even though I believe that for most people, education is worthwhile to that person, I'm far less certain that society as a whole benefits much from all of the money spent on higher education. (And I become even less certain when I look at how wasteful the process has become. Costs have been going up faster than inflation for decades, with no apparent reason than that everyone in the process knows that they are free to raise costs by that much, and it is always easier to spend more money than it is to spend less.)
What is the ROI on reading literature, or listening to music, or doing puzzles or making art?
He is right, though, education has inflated at a ridiculous rate, it is a giant bubble, in part fueled by cheap debt.
For those of us that spend most of our income on education and also live in hip urban areas that have seen so much inflation in real estate, our overall inflation rate has been >10% / year for the past decade.
-The individual case: First, the average graduate with a bachelors earns $50k and the average HS graduate earns $30k (1). So, let's take the worst case scenario, namely that you decided to go out of state without any financial aid. Your opportunity cost is $120k and your out of pocket expenditure is going to be roughly $160k for a total of $280k, which will take 14 years to amortize. I personally came out of college with $4k in debt, and worked p/t and in the summer to pay for rent and food (probably $10k/yr), which I would have had to pay for anyway, so if we adjust the opportunity cost accordingly, that's $80k + $4k = $84k which will take me 4 years to bring to parity. Not to mention, I'll probably enjoy the college educated work quite a bit more. Further, the opportunity cost issue doesn't take into account the fact that I got to spend four years studying abroad, partying with gorgeous coeds, etc.
-The economy-wide case: The key point to note here is that educated workers contribution to the economy is vastly greater than just their salary. If you work at Apple, your work is worth $1.3 million per year (2), and if you work at Matrixx Initiatives your work is worth $3.4 million per year (3). Now, let's say that the $500k figure is accurate. If you're a Matrixx Initiatives employee, in just one year, you justify the entire education of seven people. Of course it's all way more complicated than that: these employees probably have more than bachelors, if they'd started work at six or seven years old in a factory, they would have an extra fifteen or so years of income, etc., but if everyone went to the factories instead of school, our economy would probably look more like Vietnam's.
1. http://www.earnmydegree.com/online-education/learning-center... 2. http://primitus.com/blog/revenue-per-employee-in-china-vs-us... 3. http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fsb/fsb100/2006/top_performer...
So there's no question to me that educating people stands the test of financial sense. It's a question apart from finance, and essential to our future.
However, I do think it's fair to ask whether the money being spent is more than is necessary to properly educate our citizens.
For the individual trying to educate their children, the motivator has historically been the effort to move up in social class but by extension, it's an effort to give the children a richer and more diverse life with more economic opportunity being only a fraction of this. But education has also traditionally been a priority for society rather than simply individuals. Theoretically, the US as a whole benefits if tomorrow more-skilled US workers are paid the same amount for doing the same job than less-skilled US workers were doing yesterday. This works better in practice if we're talking about either auto workers or programmers rather than about fast food workers.
b) We have the same discussion in germany where universities are free. The general consensus about getting a degree seems to be that it is barely worth it (considering opportunity cost and taxes on higher income).
c) I think we see a shift in the value of college degrees and need to change our mindset. In the old days only a small percentage of the population had a degree, yielding a guaranteed job and good career opportunities. Today nearly everybody has a degree and therefore the value goes down. I think people have to learn that a degree is not the road to riches and that they actually have to work and learn to get a good job. Another myth is this: I can have the same job my father had and he didnt need a college degree. That is just plain wrong. To do the same job your father did, you need a much higher education today. Accountant with a short certificate in the old days become B.A. in economics today. Simple configuration which might be done by a clever industrial mechanic in the 60s need a complete engineer degree today.
I also learnt that Berlin is not at all like Frankfurt, where I've worked!
I have a good friend whose family is paying nothing for him to attend UCLA. Personally, I'm not so lucky/dilligent about applying for scholarships.
That's not to say they don't offer a great education, and a great experience of being immersed in a world where everyone is smart and ambitious for a few years. Similarly that immersion is part of the education. But that is another little secret: elite colleges only admit students who would succeed regardless.
I attended an elite college for undergrad (which one doesn't matter) and viewed from that side, it's hard to see if it actually made a difference in my career vs any college. I've never explicitly seen an interviewer be impressed by it. But behind the scenes, for example, I don't see if there were a hundred applicants and mine made it through the initial screening because of that.
There are so many open source projects that companies should be asked "what open source project have you contributed to?" and "show and explain that code to me".
Basically that is what got me my job. My GPA was high and I worked my butt off for 5 years to get it, but it was a small open source project that got noticed and used as the basis of selection.
It's interesting you mention open source. Sometimes I interview kids who claim x years experience and what they mean is, "I've been programming since I was 8 years old". Which is great but experience here means a) stuff you were paid to do or b) in a well-known open source package (e.g. Apache). The experience a company is interested in is experience not of coding but of "transforming a spec into a product".
The great thing about coding for a living is that most companies care more about what you can do than the name on your diploma.
It says that we're paying too much for the service we get in return.
This is what it says.
But when you say "it's so bad we would be better without", you imply - through exaggeration - that the system is very bad.
It's like when you say "I'd rather die than watch that movie".
The basis of the argument was Mexicans have a life expectancy of 2 years less than Americans, but massively smaller health care bills. The stipulation is that the return we get (2 years more life) is actually smaller than the cost (in terms of time worked, stress, etc) to bring it about. In other words, you give up 4 years of your life to your work so you can live 2 years longer. So, by giving up the 2 years greater life expectancy (cutting out/back/down hospitals and doctors) we'd get more back.
Not necessarily saying I agree, but I did want to point out that the argument isn't QUITE as fanciful as the reference might make it sound.
edit: it's all cool if you know the argument. Just wanted to make sure nobody was going solely off the sensationalist reference.
- on life-expectancy data that is measured differently -- sometimes substantially differently -- from country to country and
- the probably false belief that Americans could continue to lead the same lifestyles they do now and still live about as long under a much smaller healthcare regime.
yes, leading the same lifestyles is the rub. Which is kind of annoying now that I think about it. The lifestyles of the masses essentially determines the kind of healthcare everybody else has to pay for. If my gaunt, ever-grumbling stomach is any kind of a sign, I'm going to spend my life resenting that our healthcare system doesn't fit me in the slightest.
I've always been a 'what you do on your own time is your own choice' sort of guy, but I learn more and more that other people make decisions that should be purely their own choice, but in reality impact me all the time, which is confusing my ethical system. You should be allowed to eat what and how you want, for example, but it's becoming clearer and clearer that can have a very real and measurable impact on everybody else.
With respect to people living bad lifestyles, you have three unappetizing options.
- Let them die.
- Force them to stop living bad lifestyles.
- Pay the price yourself for the bad lifestyles that others lead.
There isn't really a fourth way. Unless you believe that most people's bad lifestyle choices can be fixed through education or non-forceful conditioning. Which, if you do, I have a bridge to sell you.
Why you think US is the country with highest incarceration rate? And let's say Norway - much smaller?
More generally: "For the amount of money that we are putting into <blank>, we should be getting more value out of it."
That's wrong on so many levels that I won't even bother to argue with it.
For a given value of {knowledge}, there are values of {number} and {bigger number} for which that statement is true. There are other values for which it is false.
Suppose, for example, it cost $1b to train a straw basketweaver and society was only willing to pay $10k for said basketweaver's output. That's not a worthwhile investment. And substituting doctor for basketweaver doesn't much change things.
Absent force, salary/compensation doesn't capture all of the value that society places on an occupation, but it isn't hugely wrong either.
Actually, there are values of {number} and {bigger number} for which that statement is true regardless of the value of {knowledge}.
I suspect that there are values for which it is always false as well.
Don't take the statement about hospitals and doctors and try to combine it with the statements about the education system. The former was just a jab at the healthcare system, the later is a jab at spending gobs of money just to end up with people that aren't doing much of anything with their education. Doctors that go out and do something with their education (i.e. work as a doctor) aren't included in that.
I think its actually a better argument than this one.
[Note: I realize that electricity and Internet are not necessary to survive, but the person claiming to survive on $20K/year obviously has both.]
[Aside: I hope that the answer doesn't come down to something stupid like, "I invested $1-million in making my house/property as self-sufficient as possible." That kinda excludes a good portion of the population from trying.]
Person 1:
Rent = $600/month (1 roommate in a small condo on a bus line)
Transportation = $0 (walks to work/store/bank)
Health care = ~$0 (grad school presumably covers it, modulo co-pays)
Food = ~$200/month (guessing at this, lives on lots of rice & beans)
Electricity = ~$50/month (also guessing)
Internet = $0 (uses it from work if necessary)
Total = $850/month = $10k/year
Person 2:
Rent = $400/month (basement apartment with 3 roommates)
Transportation = ~$130/month (T-pass, off Green Line)
Food = ~$200/month (guessing)
Health care = ~$0 (presuming he's under the university policy)
Electricity = ~$50/month (guessing, may be less with 3 roommates)
Internet = ~$10/month (you could split $40 cable or FIOS among 4 roommates)
Total = $790/month = about $9500/year.
It's amazing how many necessities really aren't if you're willing to compromise on things like appearances, location, status, etc. Even in Silicon Valley, you can get rents of $600/month if you're willing to share a place in Sunnyvale or one of the poorer sections of Mountain View, and you can get really cheap food if you're willing to eat various rice/beans/pasta dishes. And many people seem to forget that they have two legs and can walk places: I'm in sprawled-out Silicon Valley, not densely-packed Boston, and yet I walk to the bank/library/supermarket and bike to work.Do not forget to add taxes. And waterbill. And trashbill. And phonebill.
My observations are in total correspondence with Daniel Kanemann's research: For good life in USA you need $60K/year - more will not make you happier, less will make you unhappy.
I included waterbill and trashbill in my utilities estimates; I was basing it off what I paid for utilities when I lived with roommates in California.
Person 1, at least, didn't have a landline - he used his cell (still on his parents plan) or IM from work. Person 1 also did not have zero savings: he managed to save up $20K over 2 years. Remember, a typical grad student salary is about $20k/year, and he was living off $10K/year.
People who make $10-20k/year don't pay much in taxes. Many don't pay anything. That's reverse-income-tax land.
You have a point with clothes, but over the short term, it can be ignored. I'm still wearing some of my clothes from high school, 10 years later. And you certainly have a point about health care, which is the elephant in the room, though that will hopefully get better as Obama's plan phases in.
I suspect that Daniel Kanemann's research could be rephrased as "For a good life, you have to be making more than average." It's not coincidence that $60K/year is just slightly more than median household income in the U.S. I suspect that if he were to run the same experiment in Vanuatu - supposedly the happiest place on earth - he'd find that you need roughly $5K/year for the good life. That's just slightly over their per-capita GDP.
Unless you are applying the term 'McMansions' to include a single person living in a studio apartment or a 1-bedroom apartment (or even a couple living in a 2-bedroom apartment), then I suggest you revisit that statement. It's obviously not abject poverty, but to say that the only people that would consider your living conditions to be something that couldn't deal with must therefore be living in 'McMansions' is a bit of an overstatement.
You seem to be ignoring though, that the cost of living is different between the two places (I'm assuming that both of those dollar amounts are in US dollars).
Rent: $325/mo ($950 split three ways)
Student loan bills: $500/month
Fios/gas/electric: $70/mo, (again, $210 split three ways.)
Food: I eat out a fair bit, so probably like $500/mo, on average? I could cut down on this a lot if I tried.
Transportation: I bike everywhere. Spent $600 three years ago.
Phone: $60/month, Nexus One on T-Mobile with unlimited data/text, small amount of minutes that I never use.
I don't currently have health care.That puts me at roughly $1450 of spending. I'm sure I'm forgetting something minor. But for just expenses, that'd end up being $17,400 / year.
http://hcsoftware.sourceforge.net/jason-rohrer/supportMyWork...
From the sound of it, they're not living on Big Macs. But they do live an unconventional lifestyle and have made material sacrifices to minimize their consumption.
My opinion - yes you have to try to live cheap life, but not by buying used stuff - somebody else, with not really cheap life bought it first, but buying inexpensive stuff and using as long as possible, till it falls apart.
Even so, if you look at the lifestyle of a single person on 35k a year, it's vastly superior to that of someone in the 1980s in many aspects, with health care and real estate as major exceptions.
Wages: 35k
Taxes: 10.5k
Rent: 1000/mo = 12k
Utilities: 200/mo = 2.4k
Transportation (car): 200/mo+200/mo = 4.8k
Food: 400/mo = 4.8k
Total: 34.5k
Get a roommate, use public transportation, get rid of TV, make your own meals, and you could probably put 5-8k in the bank each year. Even if you're living in NYC, it should be pretty easy to "survive" on 35k a year.
Rent [1]: 300/mo = 3.6k
Transportation [2]: 100/mo = 1.2k
Food [3]: 250/mo = 3k
Total: 20.7k
Obviously that leaves a lot of things out, but that is what the other $14K+ is for. If you can't live on 35K, I'm guessing it's because you're either carrying too much debt, or you've convinced yourself you need to spend $X/mo on a car/living in <expensive city>/whatever when you really don't.
[1] Right now I actually am renting an entire house with one roommate and we each pay $125/mo, but we are renting from a friend. Before I moved here, I paid about $240 a month. I could easily find a place under $300/mo here in Columbus, OH.
[2] I don't have a car right now; instead I use public transportation or ride with my roommate or other friends. Even giving my friends gas money and renting a car once a month or so would only come to 1-1.5K per year.
[3] I could easily get by on about $125/mo for groceries. Doubling that allows me to go out a couple times a week as well.
I had a friend who never made more than $20k her whole life and yet was able to own her own house (a tiny cottage here in the Minneapolis metro area), have a running car (bought used and maintained properly) and eat well (cooked her own meals, rarely ate out). I haven't talked to her in about 7 years, but as far as I know, she's doing fine.
I lived alone with no roommates in Fairfield County, CT (a pretty expensive area) for more than 5 years while making less than $30k and was perfectly happy. It just requires managing your finances well.
I mean, Pittsburgh is a cheap city, but still, I live in the city. If I lived in the 'burbs I could do it for less. Well, maybe not, needing a car would probably make up the savings in other expenses.
State and federal funding for schools is inadequate. Wealthy areas invest additional money in education to bring the quality up to acceptable. Poorer areas cannot do so. Its an injustice that children from less affluent areas cannot get a good education in a public school, cannot have the same educational opportunities as students from more affluent areas.
Inequality in education is one of our most pressing problems, and yet nobody talks about it because it doesn't effect the affluent.
$10,300. That is what we actually spend per pupil as a nation.
Look here: http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2010/expenditures/tables/table_01.asp
See the large variance in state and local spending? Much of that is inequality.
To address your question: your assertion is factually incorrect. Some cities spend more in inner city schools, and some spend less. The real inequalities lie in rural schools.