Who Wins and Who Loses in the Latest G.O.P. Health Care Bill
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The Republican public campaign against ACA/Obamacare is a fraud masquerading as a campaign against all of the things people don't like about the ACA, which is its high premiums and deductibles, and incomplete networks. In fact this bill will literately deliver even higher premiums, higher deductibles, and more restrictive networks all to allow Paul Ryan to cut taxes without getting the Senate to press the nuclear button on the last vestiges of the filibuster.
Either democrats don't seem to want it or they just want a nice wedge issue without actually doing anything.
And verify it's a real problem. How many poor, sick people in red states have the economic mobility to move to a blue states?
However, I think, most of us will lose from this bill, because we'll live in a country that is less fair
* less fair (if you believe that a market-based approach to healthcare is unfair to people who are born with - or acquire - serious health problems, aka pre-existing conditions ...... and if you believe that poor people should get subsidies to let them get affordable healthcare)
Most of us will lose, even financially. Uncertainty is a huge drag on business. Insurance is all about reducing uncertainty, and universal insurance is even more potent in that regard. Millions of Americans will now be less likely to change jobs or take other risks that might leave them exposed to a greater risk of catastrophic medical expenses. Lenders and businesses will have to adjust for an increased number of people defaulting on loans because medical expenses forced them into bankruptcy. In these and a dozen other ways, this regression on insurance is going to hobble the economy and end up hurting us all.
BTW, I'm not at all trying to imply that it's only bad because it's bad economics. Far from it; I think the moral objections are even stronger. I'm just trying to explain how this change is wrong even according to the one criterion its proponents still (arguably) care about.
What these people are doing to our underclasses and disenfranchised groups is wrong.
Because you know what makes me a productive member of our glorious workforce? Not being able to get care.
"Too high price for a political goal" and "everything is a political goal" are not compatible.
So, tell me, what's your point really?
the other does not.
one of them got elected by poor rural people who really need the ACA.
i dont think that political goals have value. theyre about the last thing to have "value". "Exterminate all jews" was a relatively popular political goal just a couple decades ago. As far as "valuable things" go, political goals range relatively low on that totem pole.
> Vice News Correspondent Evan McMorris-Santoro noted that Pelosi told him that single payer health care should be designated as a solution for states to provide on their own and that the political reality is that Congress isn’t ready for single payer health care.
http://observer.com/2017/05/nancy-pelosi-rejects-single-paye...
I myself wrote Bernie in, simply because I wanted to see how things played out, and I dislike the Clinton's w/ a venomous hatred, and feel back-stabbed by DNC.
But I also felt that perhaps we need the Republicans to take power with the WORST leader imaginable for 4 years -- nobody can ruin the republican party brand better than Trump can. After 4 years, democrats might just start looking like the party of conservatism, and values that help more people. If anything more people will be hurting after a Trump presidency and be open to progressivism...
Here's a good article that shows though that Neoliberalism as an ideology is over, and the winds of change are pushing for Nationalism or Egalitarianism to come in and take over...
https://benjaminstudebaker.com/2016/02/10/why-bernie-sanders...
Trump is a short-term win for GOP, but a long term win for dems, because he will ruin their image/brand.
In short - it changed a flaws nationalized healthcare program into an expensive entitlement program for low-income earners.
In a lot of ways, the expensive, high deductible ACA plans are catastrophic plans. It just happens to be the case that they will actually cover a medical catastrophe, so they are expensive. A catastrophic plan that leaves the patient dead or declaring bankruptcy didn't really provide enough insurance.
Also, it depends a lot on what you mean by low income earners, but a family of 4 on $65,000 is getting a bigger subsidy than a very low income single adult in a state that didn't expand Medicaid (http://kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/the-coverage-gap-uninsu... ).
In other words, I don't believe that they'll do anything like what you're implying they will.
I'm hoping for riots, but will accept replacing representatives through the voting process.
I'm pessimistic that this will ever be known by those in swing states, let alone cared about. I've traveled to those places and met people there. They have normalized death due to medical complications and drug addiction. Why should more people dying make a difference there?
Edgy though, you hit that mark.
That seems a little unfair. I'd say they're more insulated than stupid. But when people inside their bubble start losing subsidies and getting hammered with the true cost of coverage, that might be enough to break through to some of them.
Beyond that, I think it's the basic philosophy that government should not be involved in funding health care for citizens (I think those high-risk pools are basically being set up to fail/abandon). I don't really understand it, because I don't see how the normal arguments of self-reliance and accountability translate to sickness, which is by definition out of our control no matter how self-reliant and accountable we are.
IMO the biggest elephant in the room is rationing. We can't give infinite healthcare to everybody for all their lives, particularly in very old age. We need to make hard trade-offs. In a free market system, the rationing is done by affordability and price levels: we choose who's more worthy of living longer by how much capital they've accumulated. In a more centralized system, we might choose to pay for interventions based on how much extra "life" they give, and ration by selecting a threshold for how much we pay for extra life year - this is how the UK NHS works, where life year is a QALY, quality-adjusted life year. But anything that doesn't address this elephant in the room, and appeals to emotions about the poor, sick, elderly, dying because they can't afford the treatment they need without considering who exactly we're going to leave to die and why, because we can't all be each other's caregivers for life, is intellectually bankrupt.
As per your claim on the NHS I'm not sure what are you trying to imply. Do you think the NHS or other similar systems choose to let people die based on economic reasons? Because that'll be a surprise. Disclosure: I live in the UK and grew up in Spain, where last night my grandmother passed at the age of 99 after A LOT of healthcare was poured into her (despite the fact she never had "a job"), of course paid by taxes.
Things get difficult when patients have longer term chronic illnesses. If she had kidney failure and heart desease the doctors who probably discuss a different care plan.
Like for existing drugs that are profitable but expensive to produce. Our industrial capacity is such that producing those drugs doesn't really impose any medical opportunity cost.
That's also the kind of value that people can disagree on, though. For as much as we might believe that it's unfair for someone to do all the right things and then still end up with the wrong illness and go bankrupt, for others that is the natural order of things.
Although it's worth pointing out that it was still possible (pre-ACA) to go bankrupt from health care costs even if you had done well at amassing capital.
Altogether I think that's why so many people see this as deeply distorted and unfair, the sort of thing that government should smooth out.
Why not just privatize the police, the fire department, the military, the national highway system, everything? Why is helping sick people so different from helping pay people to put out fires for homes that don't belong to you?
The "Just World Hypothesis". Many supporters, either overtly or subconsciously, believe that people get sick because they "deserve" to in some moral way. The universe is punishing for their sins, so why should taxpayers pay them off?
You can see an example of this worldview in this thread in fact, with the comment: "People who drive their cars recklessly and who speed pay higher auto insurance premiums. People who choose poor lifestyle behaviors (smoking, drinking daily Cokes, not exercising, drug use) were subsidized by those who 'drove safely.'"
Might need to recalibrate the evilometer.
But that's now what is happening here. There are some who believe that the government should stay out of healthcare (not me) and that prices will be lower, and care will be of higher quality. For them, repealing this act will move toward that outcome, which they believe to be good. There's certainly a philosophical argument to be made here.
On the other hand, people such as myself believe that a nation should just provide healthcare for all citizens because we can afford to, and if managed properly (questionable at best considering the US government) could be cheaper and result in better care and will help make the United States more fair.
So yes, I think it's quite hyperbolic to call the repeal of the ACA evil, and it's disingenuous to say that the repeal is simply "taking away health insurance from 24m people" as if that action is happening in a vacuum.
How about "profoundly amoral and uncaring"?
I am in favor of government run healthcare for a variety of reasons, but I don't consider the opposite point of view to be profoundly uncaring or amoral. In fact, I'd say that if you ignore that the intent of the ACA was to continue to entrench the government into the healthcare industry, it seems quite immoral to essentially guarantee corporate profits for health insurers.
Neither the democrats or republicans in charge really want single-payer. I think at least the republicans are more honest about it.
Yeah, that pretty much is what "uncaring" is.
So are you a hypocrite or callous?
There is a far larger philosophical discussion to be had. Summarizing healthcare as "if you don't pay for it you don't care about people who die" is either a political talking point of no value, or a lack of philosophical training and understanding.
...or merely not omnipotent?
I don't do anything for healthcare in Africa, true, because I can only do so much, and so donate money to more local organizations. However, I don't think that they should be left to fend for themselves, and do want help to be provided—and so am supportive of organizations that help.
That's a far cry from "I think people should fend for themselves", which conveniently ignores those that can't.
Painting people who disagree with you, especially if they have sound philosophical backing, as evil discredits my cause to bring healthcare to all people. If you want to bring healthcare to people, you have to find a way to get them to agree with you or change their mind. Calling them evil does harm.
Depends on the alternatives.
Winners: Rich people Losers: Everyone else
All that being said, I don't think the issue is republicans, democrats, or trump. I think the issue with our healthcare is the insurance companies themselves, doctors, medical device companies, pharmaceutical companies, and everyone else who takes a cut, adds a surcharge, and has generally done all they could to squeeze every last dime for their shareholders. Like the big banks, I want to see reform of the health care INDUSTRY, and strict limits placed on what they can charge, whom they can charge, and the whole pile on, surcharge habit.
Not covering preexisting conditions makes good business sense, as does not covering high risk or elderly people, as do many of the objections I've read about this. Maximizing profit and minimizing loss is exactly what businesses are supposed to do, and in the US, healthcare is a business in which anything but collecting premiums from the healthy and well off is an unnecessary risk.
I don't think the healthcare industry is going to reform in the ways you want without the government forcing them to work against their self-interest, which likely requires some form of "the government running your healthcare."
When some moron nail guns a board to his head and goes to the ER you are still paying for that.
What you are now not paying for is people fighting cancer, MS, AIDs, and other long term and terminal diseases.
What made you believe that this legislation would enable you to avoid 'paying for the bad mistakes of others'?
except that you absolutely will be paying for them not seeing a doctor and waiting until they have to go to the emergency room.
People who drink in excess go to the ER and get their stomachs pumped - thats paid for by the taxpayers if the person doesnt have insurance. My point was exactly that - you cannot avoid paying for these emergency rooms visits by changing how insurance works, the way to pay less for these emergency room visits is to decrease them by promoting more holistic care - and how does the government promote things? by providing economic incentives in the form of tax breaks, subsidies, etc.
I guess you missed my point by responding with pure emotion...
Most of the healthcare costs are from behavior, a much smaller proportion is from genetics. Insurance should be for insurance not to cover the negative externalities from choice.
Do you really think that people who don't smoker, don't do drugs, don't abuse alcohol, don't drink Coke every day, etc should subsidize those that do? If that's the case, then we should be subsidizing people who speed and drive recklessly.
I didn't say anything about "extremely healthily". I said people who don't smoke, who don't drink Cokes daily, who don't abuse drugs, who engage is some form of exercise.
I also don't understand your sentence. It was wrong for the Democrats to put the financial burden of unhealthy lifestyle choices on others. Healthcare needs to be changed to fix that problem.
Moreover, and very importantly, the higher costs of Medicaid have to be paid 50/50 fed/state which means that states have additional tax burdens. This additional tax burden means that higher education, state universities, gets less funding which means students have to pay even higher tuitions.
The Democrats created a problem instead of doing the right thing. Can't blame the Republicans for trying to fix the problem as best they can.
You'll note that neither NYT, WaPo, and any other MSM speaks of raising tobacco taxes. No, these elites don't care about others who can't afford the additional burden that the ACA put on people. If they truly cared, they would ask for the tobacco tax increase like other developed nations that offer universal care.
Surely you don't imagine this to be fixing it as well as they can?
And why are you unable to address people who were born with genetic diseases/birth defects or who have contracted disease through no fault of their own?
In a case like healthcare I think it's important we put ourselves behind the veil of ignorance. If you did not know who you were going to be born as but you knew that there was a 3% chance you would be born with a birth defect[0] and a 51% chance you would meet the criteria for pre-existing condition[1] which society would you choose, one with ACA or one with AHCA?
Even if you contest the numbers think of it like this, you have x% chance to suffer from a chronic disease and you will also be buried by medical debt and y% that you will be healthy (for most of your life) and pay a small percent each month to hedge your risk.
Or you could choose a society where you have a x% chance to suffer from a chronic disease and you pay a moderate amount each month for insurance and y% that you will be healthy (for most of your life) and pay a moderate amount each month to hedge your risk. Now if you did not know whether you would be a person to suffer from chronic disease or birth defects which would you pick? Seems obvious to me.
[0] https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/birthdefects/index.html
[1] https://aspe.hhs.gov/pdf-report/health-insurance-coverage-am...
I have also repeatedly stated that we should not be paying for the healthcare costs of lifestyle choices of smoking, drinking alcohol, sugar sweetened beverages such as Coke, lack of exercise, etc.
Instead of doing the right thing and increase the tobacco taxes to pay for the programs (as other countries such as Canada, UK, France, Ireland, ...) have done, the Democrats chose to burden others and have chosen to dramatically increased Medicaid costs to the states which means that public universities (or course not the universities of the elites that run the Democratic Party) will get less and less funding and the students will have to go more and more into debt.
The Republicans fixed the problem caused by the Democrats. Instead of blaming the Republicans for fixing these harms, blame the Democrats for folding to the tobacco lobby.
Now, either you understand this that I am not saying that people with genetic issues or issues caused by those others by lifestyle or you don't. But don't blame the Republicans for fixing the harms caused by the Democrats. If you were to actually speak with people as I have you fill find that most agree that they shouldn't have to subsidize the healthcare costs caused by lifestyle choice.
If people really cared, they would lobby for increasing the tobacco tax to levels comparable to Canada, UK, France, Ireland, .... to pay for the programs. Neither NYT, WaPo, or any other MSM or their columnists have advocated following the example of these other countries in order to pay for the care.
BTW, the states can increase their own tobacco taxes, and put the money into Medicaid as NY State has done. Louisiana has a tobacco tax of $1.08 and NYS $4.35. If it raised its tobacco taxes to about $3.00 for the 200 million annual packs smoked and then put the money into Medicaid (matched 2:1 by feds) they would have $600 million to take care of uninsured while lowering the rate of smokers which, at 24%, is one of the highest in the nation.
People claim to care, but if they truly cared, they'd lobby to raise the tobacco taxes using those funds to pay for people who need healthcare.
It'd be interesting to see if shifting to higher deductible plans leads people to make different health choices or not.
Issues of genetics should be covered by insurance, but by far most healthcare costs are from chronic diseases caused by smoking, obesity/lack of exercise, alcohol abuse, etc. and air pollution.