Edit: An exception may be Easyjet (though I've never seen it happen and I fly them a lot). They offer flex tickets mainly aimed at business flyers which would make it worthwhile for them to do some limited overbooking.
Edit: An exception may be Easyjet (though I've never seen it happen and I fly them a lot). They offer flex tickets mainly aimed at business flyers which would make it worthwhile for them to do some limited overbooking.
Let's take two airlines, A and B. Both only sell non-refundable tickes. A never overbooks. B always overbooks. What happens?
A will fly with some number of empty seats on average, because they still get the occasional no-show. B flies with fewer empty seats on average because they overbook.
Which airline can offer more competitive prices? It's B. Because by overbooking B's revenue per plane leg is higher.
If that isn't clear, here's an example. Say the planes have a capacity of 100, and on average 2 people fail to show. A sells 100 tickets for $100.00 each. B sells 101 tickets for $99.02 each. On average, B makes more money on every flight, _and_ is more competitive on price.
Of course with the numbers in my example the compensation paid by B on the odd occasion that everyone shows up probably kills any additional profit. The real numbers matter in order to determine to what extent this really happens in practice. But I hope I've demonstrated that non-refundability of tickets doesn't necessarily or automatically mean that overbooking is not profitable.
So there is some potential level of competitive benefit to overbooking even on non-refundable tickets, assuming that some people still occasionally fail to show (because they miss a connection, become ill, or whatever).
As usual, people striving to save one dollar no matter what (in this case, giving up the certainty of flying) are the problem.
> As usual, people striving to save one dollar no matter what (in this case, giving up the certainty of flying) are the problem.
It's not necessarily a problem. Flyers can choose between certainty of flying and other nice things that cost money. Most appear to choose having other nice things instead. Southwest is banking on flyers choosing the other way. There may well be space for both approaches in the market.
I think Ryanair's approach of not overbooking is sensible as it keeps the operation very easy. Also, they can book every flight to 100%. If you deny boarding, you need to offer alternatives. That's not possible if you're the only airline flying from the airport (Ryanair used to use a lot of regional airports) and your next flights are already at 100%.
However it's still a good idea to book each individual flight in a different transaction. Avoids any shennanigans on the airline's part for no-shows and there's no downside for the passenger other than a slightly longer booking process.
After that, you get nothing. It's in the contract. I think it's only been that way for 2 years or so.