What if the Singularity does not happen?
kurzweilai.net
kurzweilai.net
Applying Moore's law to every form of technological progress just doesn't work. Look at the internal combustion engine, space travel, or energy technology and try to fit an exponential curve to their datapoints since their introduction.
To me the whole "singularity" thing comes down to these two beliefs: a) AI is feasible. b) When true AI appears on the scene it will have a profound impact on humanity. If I ignore all the confusing and contradictory definitions of the word "singularity", then my claim is "appearance of AI leads to singularity" as opposed to Kurzweil's "accelerating change observed so far will lead to singularity".
My main points of contention with Kurzweil are in his summary dismissal of fundamental problems in science, acting as if because Moore's law exists, nanobots running in our bloodstream are just a process node or two away.
He is also dismisses biological complexity as not being that inscrutable because our genome is only as long as microsoft word in bit length. This is just silly; the power in the code is it's expressiveness that explodes combinatorially in a given environment. You know probably far better than I do that his statements about the ease with which we'll understand DNA, etc. to reverse engineer the brain is nowhere near as simple and linear a process as he makes it out to be.
I think we've already hit a lesser singularity and no one noticed except some crazy stoned guy that sent me spam emails: the singularity of information. I can find practically anything I want to with a few keystrokes. I can talk to anyone anywhere in the world with ease. It's pretty cool, even if it doesn't make me a post-human. Maybe human 1.1.
You are right about the information singularity though, I still trip over how easy it is. I remember my earlier computing experiences back in the 80s with the commodore; the computer was a toy. Even back in 91 with my crash-prone Mac classic; it was still a toy. Then in 96 people kept talking about this "Internet". I went to a PC at my school, typed in a few words and answers came back. At that moment I thought Holy s---, it happened without me.
In a way, I've been in that state of shock ever since.
My dentist used a new CAD/CAM system to carve a sliver of plastic to fit perfectly into a hole he'd drilled into my tooth. Total cost of that procedure: $500, uncovered by dental insurance (because it's a new procedure). This is progress, but at a cost.
My doctor diagnosed multiple cysts in a private region. His cure: multiple operations, each leaving me limping out of the hospital with a bag of ice wrapped around my nuts and two week's of painful recovery. I asked for another procedure (sclerotherapy) that involves no cutting, no pain, lower cost, and no hospital or recovery time: he declined.
So IMO the singularity may arrive if you can 1) endure the procedures, 2) have sufficient $$ to pay for them, 3) live long enough for doctors to get up to speed. It is the last that I doubt will occur.
Medicine today remains barbaric and primitive, locked into a generational struggle for control and knowledge. Medicine promises wonders but rarely delivers. We've been promised cures for everything from cancer to cavities for 30 years but all that is delivered is crude cutting and poisoning (chemotherapy) by people who are little more than glorified plumbers. We funnel millions to the kingdoms of doctors/researchers, most whom are poor scientists, and get little in return. They get their Mercedes, a third home in Florida and free medical care.
Before any singularity occurs there will have to be a social change: organized medicine needs to be knocked off it's pedestal and deregulated. The function of the doctor must be de-elevated and possibly fragmented. The current system is positively medieval, with doctors occupying the position of Catholic priests during the Middle Ages. Hell, they still write their prescriptions in Latin sometimes.
And don't get me started on HMO's.
For example, Bush is a member of the Republican Party, but I don't assume that all Republicans are deranged genocidal maniacs.
"The four worlds of the Metaverse Roadmap could also represent four pathways to a Singularity. But they also represent potential dangers. An "open-access Singularity" may be the answer."
If (and when) the Singularity /does/ happen, humans will be wiped off the planet within a few centuries.
a. I disagree.
b. Even if I assume that you're right, why do you assume that all possible outcomes in which there are no humans on the planet are negative outcomes? e.g. What if all humans decided to "upload" themselves into computers? (Assuming that such a thing is coherent and feasible and becomes commonplace.)
I don't claim to be an expert on this or to have thought about it much, but I think everything should be totally voluntary. Go upload yourself if you want, or go live off the land if you want. Either is fine; do what makes you happy.
I'm sure what you mean by "ohnoes"--I looked it up in a dictionary and couldn't find it--what <i>does</i> it mean?
But yes -- I'm very concerned about AI safety and I think it deserves more research attention.