When the next (inevitable) correction happens, the tide will change and stock pickers will return to the spotlight.
(It might be not rational, of course. But markets are never rational. They are efficient — efficient in projection of our hopes and fears).
Beautifully said
Passively managed money has been increasing because there are more low-cost funds available, and lots of education about stock picking versus passively managed funds (e.g. Warren Buffet, A Random Walk).
Picking stocks vs Picking managers vs Passively investing, but sure. You're right in principle but i'd question whether it's true in practice?
My theory predicts that when the next major recession happens, Vanguard and other passively managed funds will become dramatically less popular (which will amplify the fall), and actively managed funds will come back.
Your theory predicts that none of this will happen when recession strikes.
So, I propose we wait and see. :)