Can Wind Power Revive Jobs in America's Heartland?
citylab.com
citylab.com
"Moreover, people invest a lot in building up a professional identity, which helps make the work more bearable (and, by giving people pride in what they do, probably ensures that the work is better done). Suddenly abandoning something that has constituted a major part of who you are, and taking a job at the bottom of a new field, is not any easier for a machinist or a coal miner than it would be for a professional."
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-06/some-blue...
It's not sudden. At all. The coal industry has been on the decline for quite a while now, and green jobs have been on the rise.
As if blue collar workers are not professionals.
I find it hard to see a machinist not as a professional but fine, I'll change my internal dictionary.
Reading https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional it looks as if this is a cultural difference.
Edit: thinking about this a bit longer, it seems clear that the distinction was made by those who don't get their hands dirty at the expense of those who do, and it seems extremely demeaning to me. As if the 'white/blue collar worker' distinction wasn't bad enough now people who spend a lifetime acquiring the knowledge to do their jobs are not even allowed to be called - or call themselves - professionals.
That doesn't seem clear to me at all.
A little off topic, but a functioning welfare system has the potential to allow people to take the time to find the right job, rather than be pressured into taking the first thing that comes along. It's a question of balance
So does having 6 months of income saved up, but we don't teach any type of finance in high schools.
I understand that some people with jobs don't have that ability, but the vast majority do.
A wind farm does not require many full time workers for operation and maintenance. Most present wind industry jobs are in installation and manufacturing. When wind power stops growing and reaches steady-state, employing people for O&M plus manufacturing/installing replacements for aged-out components, the job count is going to plunge.
I don't actually think that wind's low labor intensity is bad. I think it's great that renewables can produce electricity with far less pollution and significantly less human labor than coal plants. But it does mean that switching energy jobs away from coal, even if it were frictionless, still leaves you with fewer jobs than the status quo ante. It's somewhat like trying to switch everyone unemployed by robots into new robot-maintenance-technician careers. The numbers don't work.
Curiously, when coal/nuclear/gas industry lobbyists (also Trump) emphasize the latter fact they usually fail to point out the former.
What's actually true is that "house cats" and wind turbines can be fairly effective killers in their respective niche. Cats predate primarily songbird species. Wind turbines whack relatively low-abundance birds of prey and--in offshore installations--seabirds. With the right circumstances, both can do very substantial harm to bird populations.
I'm not. I'm pointing out that if one problem is 15,000x bigger than another problem and you never mention the bigger problem then perhaps your problem isn't with the actual problem but with the fact that you're in the pay of coal/oil/gas/nuclear companies or you choked on their propaganda.
Back on topic, ...
Golden Eagles are generally sparse breeders with some of the largest home territories of any bird. A successful pair typically produces one or two chicks. As many as 55-70% of successfully reared offspring don't live through their third year. It takes birds typically six or seven years to reach full maturity, although breeding is possible by their fourth or even third year of life--however, young parents are rarely successful ones.
The point I'm making is that this is not a species with overwhelming numbers, nor the ability to recover readily from steady declines. This is especially true when you speak of Golden Eagle populations typically in terms of hundreds or thousands of pairs (not tens or hundreds of thousands as you might with some more common songbird species). The steady "take" of even just a few percent of the GE population each year should not be conflated as having the same impact to the population as plinking house sparrows with a pellet gun.
(Edit for typos and clarity.)
> Turbines almost never kill bald eagles.
Better to attribute the ramping of Bald Eagle populations across North America to the ban of DDT and other organochlorines, as well as successful restorative nest hacking in areas where they were extirpated. Windfarms are simply not common enough to be a mitigating factor (yet).
> Golden eagle fatalities are relatively uncommon at wind projects.
This is a clever turn of phrase. One could also say wind projects are also relatively uncommon, which is probably the biggest reason there haven’t been more eagle fatalities. One need to look no further than Altamont Pass, California, to see what happens when you install a windfarm adjacent to the largest known population of nesting Golden Eagle in the world. That's a worst case scenario, of course. But the point is that good siting is pretty much the key to making bird killing a non-problem. As more windfarms are installed, the problem will likely become more common.
With that said, state and federal regulators in the USA have either by omission or intent set very low bars for “voluntary reporting” and mortality monitoring. The lion’s share of the mortality data that exists is strictly “proprietary”, and has never been shared. And most windfarms do practically no monitoring at all apart from the laughingly inadequate pre-construction and post-construction surveys mandated by the USFWS. And why should they? The hostile legal environment surrounding permitting, for example, would make it foolhardy for any company to go out of their way to collect data that could only become a giant liability down the line. Simply put, the absence of data for eagle mortality should not be taken as a sign that there is no eagle mortality occurring.
> The majority of golden eagle deaths occur at older wind farms build in the 1980s, when the relationship between turbines and eagles was not understood. Better-sited, modern turbines are replacing outdated ones and lowering deaths by 80 percent.
They are referring to Altamont Pass, again. Modern turbines are definitely better. Rather than the picket-line or gauntlet of high-speed blenders installed atop hills where birds slope-soar and hunt, modern turbines tend to be spaced much farther apart, greatly reducing the likelihood of a collision. However, reducing incidence of collision does not mean “lowering deaths”--it just means that that each “pass” an eagle makes through a windfarm becomes less dangerous. This distinction is important. In windfarms where choice prey is abundant, hunting eagles will typically make several extended passes through a windfarm each day, making their likelihood of an “encounter” with a turbine quite high over a period of several days or weeks.
They say “lowering deaths by 80 percent”, then backpedal a bit farther down:
> It is estimated that eagle fatalities will be reduced by as much as 80% as those long-standing wind sites replace their shorter, more numerous, faster-rotating old turbines with taller, less numerous, slower-rotating modern turbines that are sited based on more experience.
I was about to say: the only windfarm in the country that’s employed any serious “repowering” effort is Altamont Pass. And the speculated improvement that new turbines are better than the old turbines for “lowering deaths” there has, so far, been inconclusive. It’s not that modern turbines aren’t an improvement, it’s just that this webpage doesn’t yet have any justification to be making this claim!
> Modern turbines have slower-rotating blades, and fewer are needed to generate the same amount of electricity.
Modern turbines’ rate of rotation is indeed slower, but the speeds of the actual blades (especially on the distal half) is actually appreciably faster than smaller bird blenders. In practice, it just means the risk is harder to model, since birds can at times ably pass through the relatively slow rotating part of the blade path near the nacelle but be likely to be literally sliced in two if attempting the same manoeuvrer more toward the end of the blade.
> It also seeks scientifically credible ways to lower and mitigate wind energy’s impacts.
Translation, wind companies are trying to dig up some legit-sounding research on the cheap that backs up what they say. With very few exceptions, the business of wind energy is incompatible with properly funding the research on its impacts. This slack is left to underfunded academics and conservationists, not companies built for the purpose of profit.
> Developers thoroughly evaluate risk to eagles before projects are sited and built. Developers make adjustment to wind farm design, turbine locations and project operations to reduce potential impacts. They abandon the riskiest sites in order to avoid significant impacts.
This is basically BS. It wasn’t until the Duke Energy settlement over its WY wind projects that wind companies starting taking this much more seriously. Ten years ago, it was more normal to find an environmental consulting group who’d be willing to game the EIA and pre- and post-contructions surveys to help you through the federal site permitting process.
> If the risk for eagle collision is high, operators are often required to continuously monitor for any impacts on eagles and mitigate for them should they occur.
This is BS. Under “voluntary reporting” guidelines, who’s to even know? It’s only very recently that regulators have imposed any sorts of requirements like this.
> These permits are similar to take permits available under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), which is the gold standard for wildlife protection.
They are not so similar at all, with the sole exception that permit issuance smacks more of capriciousness by regulators than helping mankind find a sound(er) balance between wildlife and the needs of man.
I could go on, but why bother? This is just a dumb PR page ...
One could. I could also say that I drove by about five or six hundred wind generators today...
Nothing in what you said above really convinces me that you should have anything against wind farms in general. It's all FUD.
But, seriously, I see too many bad faith owners/operators who really don't give a shit about their effects on wildlife. And I see regulators setting a low bar and showing no teeth when it actually matters. Altamont Pass is a prime example--despite knowing about the "bird problem" there for many years, there has never been a requirement by state or federal regulators for any sort of mitigation at all. I find that honestly a bit disgusting.
Even the Eagle Take Permit's primary tool of "compensatory mitigation" (usually in the form of utility pole retrofitting) does not address where the problem actually occurs. You don't balance wildlife populations like you would an algebra equation--instead, the side subtracted from is simply subtracted, even if you conceivably enable gains elsewhere.
"The number of animals killed in the United States has been estimated at a million per day"
"About 350,000 to 27 million birds are estimated to be killed on European roads each year."
Case and point -- North Carolina and their need for farmers [1]
[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2013/05/15/north...
That seems to be the biggest problem with lower class work in the US at the moment. Cost of living is always going up, but the companies want to pay the same paltry wages they were a few decades ago.
And maybe the price just needs to go higher still. I'm not going to tell someone how much they have to work for. But it's interesting that – once you account for the significantly lower cost of living generally found in these rural areas – you're practically making programmer in a big city wages now and that's still not appealing to someone who is unemployed.
In a lot of ways, I think enraged_camel (and cobo) hit the nail on the head[1]. Nobody wants the identity of working on a farm. There are a lot of negative connotations related to that type of work that have been built up over the years.
The problems with children are really just problems with adults.
There are plenty of truly poor people out there who I really do think would rather be homeless than toil dangerously.
9.70 doesn't pay for a broken arm or back pain years down the line
Right, hence the comment implying that a gas station job around that amount would get workers. But in a time where there is a significant push to make the minimum wage $15, it's not surprising that people won't do hard labor for $10.
Why is that foreigners are taking these jobs and not Americans?
Look at things today. The return on labor has dropped significantly due to outsourcing and immigration dropping wages at a time when corporate earnings are higher than ever and socioeconomic mobility is at an all-time low[1]. Productivity is higher & GDP per capita is over $50k/yr, yet the majority of people, especially in the lower class, have not been benefiting from this. I guarantee the corporate managers make obscenely more money than the farm laborers do. I personally don't feel it's bad to feel entitled to my fair share of the work I put in.
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-economic_mobility_in_the...
Ironically, unions play their own part in that. Here in Canada we like to pick on teachers because, thanks to a strong union, they can make almost $100,000 for 8 months of work. Which is fine, and good for them, but the problem is that they are able to achieve that high income only because they actively prevent other people from doing the job. Someone who is stuck in a low-paying job has no avenue to compete against them, leaving that person stuck in a low-paying job while the teacher can start amassing wealth with the high income their job provides. This is how inequality happens.
Of course, not the same degree that you find with what is quite possibly the most insidious form of protectionism: Intellectual property. It's no coincidence that people like Bill Gates, who built a business on copyright law, are among the richest in the world. As soon as someone tries to offer the "Doors" operating system to fulfill the huge demand for such a product, they will get the pants sued off them. You can try to offer something sort of the same, but not really, but that doesn't put much pressure on the market for obvious reasons.
It would be kind of like if diary and poultry (Diary and poultry products have their own protectionist system in Canada, so I use that example as more than just a hypothetical) products were controlled by a certain group. You can grow celery to try and compete against them, but that's not really going to stop people from buying dairy and poultry if that's what the market wants. Celery is not cheese. As such, those who control the market profit greatly. A family friend is in the chicken business and he's been willing to share his wealth, and let's just say that I think a lot of startups would be pivoting to that business if there was a viable way in. The problem is, of course, that the protectionism doesn't allow a viable way in for everyone else.
Wind power is not suitable for base load power, not just because of its intermittency but also because the tech running it is designed to exploit government subsidies rather than provide reliable power. A great example of this immaturity here (software defaulted to protecting the wind farm at the expense of an entire state's power supply).
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/Files/Electricity/NEM/Market...
Relying on wind power is like using your home router in an ISP datacenter.
https://cleantechnica.com/2016/12/25/cost-of-solar-power-vs-...
"The first point is the very basic fact that new wind power and/or solar power plants are typically cheaper than new coal, natural gas, or nuclear power plants — even without any governmental support for solar or wind.
Not only are they typically cheaper — they’re much cheaper in many cases.
Yes, these are levelized cost of energy (LCOE) estimates from Lazard based on various assumptions, and they are averages for the US as a whole rather than prices for specific locations within the US, but the lower estimated costs for these renewables are reflected in the real world as well, where solar & wind accounted for 69% of new capacity additions in 2015, 99% of new capacity additions in Q1 2016, a large portion of new capacity additions in Q2 2016, and probably ~⅔ of new capacity additions for 2016 as a whole."
https://www.lazard.com/media/438038/levelized-cost-of-energy... (warning: pdf)
Even with a reduced capacity factor, if you can shift non-essential loads to when renewables are producing (my pool pump needs to run X hours a day, but I'm happy to wait until the cost of power is low to run it), that's essentially "storage" without needing to pay for storage.
What I do see as a big problem is cost. Government subsidies aside, the cost of buying and installing turbines presently is no laughing matter. At scale, solar is rapidly becoming much cheaper to install than wind, which is increasingly becoming reliant on giant 3-5 MW capacity monoliths costing roughly 4-5 million USD a pop--not accounting for installation and maintenance over the long term, and supporting infrastructure and transmission lines to tie the windfarm into The Grid.
WRT to your comment on base power, that's the main reason why they haven't stopped using those plants completely, but the problem itself is not insurmountable or dependent on coal. In the U.S. and in SA, they are likely going to switch to Natural Gas peaker plants to manage any periods of instability. And that's one of the big reasons why the Feds in Australia are pushing for that new hydro power in VIC.
TL;DR: coal is on the way out, and the base load is a tough, but fixable problem.
For instance, the tax credit is a huge subsidy, and obviously reduces the effective capital cost. But once the capital cost is depreciated after a short period of years, then what does the ongoing marginal cost look like?
If it's low, which I expect it is, then can it be retrofitted with batteries or other technology to store energy?
I don't know the answer, but the lower effective capital cost has to have longer term effects - especially when a coal plant is depreciated over a couple decades.
You know what could do it though? A new new deal focused not just on national roads and bridges, but public owned internet.
I think this is the profound part, and it contributes toward enraged_camel and massysett's comments as well.
If you want people to take pride in their work, give them ownership: bridges, roads, wind/solar, municipal broadband last mile, contributing towards the maintaining and expansion of national parks and reserves. "I helped build that". It provides purpose. People need purpose in what they do (on top of autonomy and mastery). [1]
This is how you create community from public works projects. "Building Tomorrow Together" would make a great New Deal umbrella project, funded by the US government.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drive:_The_Surprising_Truth_Ab...
I grew up with a national forest as my back yard, so I understand the value of such projects first-hand.
Isn't job availability the biggest issue when it comes to destruction of the middle class? Could you name a bigger issue?
And now, because any policy change (normalizing interest rates for example) that might affect these precious lottery winners is a non-starter. Meanwhile, this bubble is well underway bleeding into the rental market. So it is literally government policy to create a society of have and have nots.
That's how it is in much of the US, at least. I'm not sure if Canada is different.
Trick up is real, trickle down is the myth.