U.S. Launches over 50 Missiles at Syrian Military Base
nbcnews.com
nbcnews.com
I'm still not convinced that the Chemical Weapons where from Assad or the Russians attack and the probability of them actually being in a weapons store the rebels held, to me seems if not equally probable. Mostly from the aspect that Chemical Weapons in the form of landmine dispersol have been used by ISIS in Iraq. Now the aspect that such types of weapons as a Chemical Weapon dispersal is not one we know that well. So an airstrike upon a weapons depot that had such landmines, could most likely cause the mines to release the chemical weapon. Many experts have said that an airstrike upon a chemical weapon store would destroy the chemical weapons. But we are talking about mines as storage. A factor that may well be overlooked or a large unknown in how they react to airstrikes.
What we will know eventually is if they fingerprint the chemical weapon in this Syrian event and compare to that used by ISIS in Iraq then if they are the same.
So given how Russia and indeed Assad reacts will prove most telling. I also believe Assad would be totally foolish to use Chemical Weapons, more so with Russian support and no need to use them. This and already gave them up, via Russia and again. There was no need for them and they would know the response if they did, and I don't believe even Russia or Assad would be that silly.
So from that perspective, Trump just updated the Doomsday clock.
Those at the top play games, those at the bottom die for it. It's all a way to strengthen the loyalty of voters.
So It will be interesting to see how his approval rating goes over the next few days.
I hope they are not rushing in without all the facts and that is my fear, and maybe they know something that is not public. Time will tell, as always.
0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C-4_(explosive)
1. https://pubchem.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/compound/sarin#section=Odor
So still reasonable doubt.
I really hope they do a forensics upon that impact sight of Chemical Weapons and get to the truth sooner rather than later.
I know why they do it, and wars are alas still measured upon how many combatants you loose, over any innocents loss of life. That needs to change.
I wasn't aware that the rebels controlled fighter jets?
> I also believe Assad would be totally foolish to use Chemical Weapons
This is not the first time Assad uses chemical agents...
I'm honestly quite surprised to see such a display of mental gymnastics being upvoted on HN.
The situation has changed though. His regime's prospects of surviving are the best they've been since the war started. Why risk upsetting the current situation for such a small gain?
He has absolutely nothing to gain from using chemical agents when he is already winning through conventional means. Even more so considering he probably doesn't plan individual strikes
Much more likely this is a false flag pushed by Israel/Saudi Arabia because Assad's regime is an ally of Iran - their biggest rival in the region.
We don't know that, especially when it comes to using chemical weapons. And even if he doesn't, he definitely delegates to representatives he trusts.
> Much more likely this is a false flag
I'm honestly speechless.
If he didn't authorize it directly, it doesn't matter - his regime is set up in such a way that actors under his authority used chemical weapons on civilians.
The justification of a response is not impacted by whether or not he was individually responsible.
They don't and afaik no one is claiming that they do. The Syrian government isn't denying a bombing. They're saying that they bombed using conventional munitions but hit a chemical weapon stockpile.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_and_weapons_of_mass_destr...
I'm far from an expert here but I read in one report that Assad generally doesn't store the Sarin gas in its final form as it's highly unstable but instead stores one of the precursor chemicals which takes little effort to convert. Doing this would mean a strike on a warehouse wouldn't release the deadly gas.
I think it's slightly less probably given that the rebels would have had to made a conscious choice to convert the chemical to Sarin and store it. Do the rebels have any history of using it?
"Nurse Nayirah" later turned out to be the daughter of the Kuwaiti ambassador to the United States."
So basically what just happened with the gas attack and all.
[0] https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/07/world/middleeast/aleppo-t...
That aside, Google translate can probably help you write "better twitter post" than many native English speakers. Bana's mother may also be helping her, but that doesn't make her fake.
Anyone find this plausible or should I turn off the computer and go to sleep?
There would be no hard evidence of a submarine launched ICBM pre-impact in the year 2017? I think you can stay up a while longer.
Meanwhile, the US collapses.
I mean sure we can say we have hard evidence that the warhead was launched from a Russian sub, but RT will report things differently and half the world won't believe anything the US says anyway.
Honestly this is a serious risk and the only thing we can do is elect a batshit crazy leader who can convince Putin he's stupid enough to push the button. Oh I see...
I can't really predict or imagine what would happen in the event NYC was hit with a nuclear missile, but my gut says we'll be back to sticks and stones, regardless of who launched it. A bomb could be blamed on terrorists. Not an ICBM.
Both countries know this, which is why neither Trump or Putin are going to launch the missiles.
If are willing to take seriously a movie, Sum of all Fears, then for each ball of plutonium, just take the distribution of its isotopes. If have a catalog of all such balls of plutonium, then, for any one ball of plutonium, its distribution, looked up in the catalog, will identify where and when that plutonium was made. Similarly for any bomb from such a ball of plutonium -- just get the distribution of the isotopes in the fallout from the explosion, look up in the catalog, and know the source of the plutonium. Maybe from the nuclear weapons treaties, the catalog was developed.
If all that is approximately the case, then whenever a plutonium bomb goes off, will know the source.
Next, it may be the case that, if a missile is launched at sea, then US satellites will detect the launch and start a search -- e.g., by air, dropping sonar buoys with active sonar -- to find the submarine.
It may be the case that the submarine trying to get away is limited to a speed of only about 6 knots since going faster might generate enough flow noise for the submarine to be heard and located nearly anywhere in the ocean. If the submarine is limited to such a slow speed, then it would appear that the airplane and sonar buoys would be able to find the submarine easily enough.
Next, it may be the case that the US knows the location, 24 x 7, of every submarine in the world able to launch a nuclear missile.
Net, for a missile with a plutonium warhead to be launched at sea and the submarine to get away without being detected might be nearly impossible.
It seems that certain interests will carry through no matter what.
There's a conspiracy that's been floated for a few years and is resurfacing that the Saudis and Qataris have been pushing for a pipeline from Qatar to Turkey via Syria, and Assad has been a thorn in their side preventing diplomatic means to get it done. But there's also sound arguments against this [1], although the source I found suggests that this is directly tied to US access to bases in the area (possible) and thus aligning with SA, Qatar, and Turkey (perhaps in opposition to Russia/Iran/Syria). I'm not sure anyone really knows what's going on at this point. If I had to guess, it probably ties into everything from oil to archaic alliances dating to the Cold War and even military expenditures.
The Israelis may have a part to play in all this, too, but in my mind, I don't see what benefit they'd gain by continuing to destabilize the entire region. Then again, I guess you could argue the same point for every other actor, and perhaps there's an advantage behind encouraging your adversaries to go for each others' throats every few years (dangerous!).
Another protracted war in the Mideast is the last thing we need... sigh.
(Note: I'm just speculating here based on what I've read over the years and my own opinions and biases. This is probably entirely wrong.)
[1] http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/37685-the-war-against-the...
Second, Israel already illegally occupies a portion of Syrian territory, the Golan heights. And has no intention whatsoever of giving it back. A torn country is the best way to make sure that the Golan Heights will never go back to Syria (which might not even exist anymore) (check [1])
The other reason I just found it in the news this morning, though it doesn't surprise me in the least. "Prime minister Netanyahu is pressing to ensure that any agreement that will end the war in Syria will include buffer zones on Israeli borders with Syria and Jordan. [2] " Now, we know what Israel does with "buffer zones". The West Bank is, technically, a buffer zone. They're just moving their own civilian population in it.
[1] https://www.google.nl/search?q=netanyahu+war+in+syria+golan+... [2] http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.782143
The comment I'm responding to makes it sound like this stuff is beyond democracy and voters have no choice. That's not true at all. Voters just consider bombing others to be an important activity.
(Flamewar was a bad example, I admit. Sorry about that.)
Only Congress has the power to declare war. That's the actual check and balance. But if I understand correctly, in a situation like this[1], the President has authority to authorize military force. He just can't continue to use it for more than 90 days (in the same situation) without congressional approval[2].
But no, Republicans in Congress are not going to magically force Trump to un-fire the missiles. Nor are they going to impeach him over this. (If he violates the 90 day limit, it is somewhat more likely that there will be some kind of action, but still far from certain.)
[1] For some value of "like this" - a situation where, in the President's judgment, military action is urgently needed, where it can't wait for days or weeks while Congress debates and goes through all the procedural motions.
[2] The 90 day limit is there because the Vietnam War came out of a situation like this - a presidentially-authorized use of force that never was a declared war, that turned into nearly a decade of US involvement and 55,000 US dead.
@realDonaldTrump 30 Aug 2013: "The President must get Congressional approval before attacking Syria-big mistake if he does not!" [1]
[1] https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/37358152840590540...
The U.S. does nothing: Innocent people continue to die
The U.S. does something: Innocent people die (It is war, after all)
Whats worse, is what'll happen when one of the strikes inadvertently hits some of Russia's troops?
Whats the solution to all this?
Like, coordinating coups and dropping bombs over and over again tends to have that effect.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-cr...
And the US had been covertly funding the opposition for at least 5 years before the war erupted:
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0418/...
The problem has never been the war, the problem is that "Assad must go". For the strategies and gains of the US and a number of its allies. Any excuse and any false flag will do, and any amount of victims is acceptable to this end.
Maybe get all the parties to the fighting to get serious, sit down, shut up, listen up, and make a deal.
For the first part, the "get serious", have some bombs wake them up and get their attention.
Or may want a BATNA -- best alternative to a negotiated agreement -- to be much worse than so far. Or, call it making the parties motivated.
Or, maybe the attack with the 50+ cruise missiles was to "make an example".
Why try to make the parties more motivated -- could that help? Well, easily enough, there are enough people among the parties who are willing to have that several sided civil war continue at the current level of bloodshed for a long time. But, maybe by making the war more costly to selected parties, can get a deal.
I don't know enough of the details to have any idea if any of the above would be realistic, feasible, correct, etc. Instead, I'm just floating some of what might be part of the situation. Or as General Mattis explained, a war is not over until the enemy says it is -- the enemy also gets a vote. So, for a war to be over, all the sides need to be motivated to agree it should be over.
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/603497/trump-syr...
All we need now is an arch duke in an open top car.
But usually they think about the long-term strategic consequences of doing so, before acting. For like at least 5 minutes or so.
1. The U.S. and ISIS are on the same side in this war.
2. Assad is a secularist, modernizer.
Shudder.2. Assad is also someone who uses chemical weapons on his own people. (All right, the other side of a civil war, but still citizens of his own nation.) He's a guy who turned protests into a civil war by his brutality in response. "Secularist and modernizer" isn't the same as "good guy".
Ron Paul is questioning the origin of the attack, but here we are.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia is moving forward as of earlier this week, and the Turkish stream pipeline can't move forward until the Syria question is settled. Add to that in late March Russia announced it was coming up with an alternative to the SWIFT banking system. Collision course.
Vlad doesn't seem like the kind to back down. Not looking forward to this one bit.
[1] http://www.latimes.com/world/worldnow/la-fg-wn-syrian-rebels...
Here's a reminder for people of what Obama was up to:
When judging crimes, intent matters. EDIT: Even if you wish it wasn't.
Sorry all. That is what I felt on reading this. We just don't need war.
But you know what, I come to this site for tech and science type things. But a large contingent appear to be bent on using it for a political platform. My opinion is they are badly damaging the site. I've tried to register my opinion on things or talk about topics in what I perceive to be an objective manner only to be trolled, flamed and down-voted into oblivion. At this point I'm not going to bother with anything remotely political. If people want to make another ideology bubble fine. It's just not worth the struggle at this point.
However, that probably shows that it's not enough to say you have an opinion or a stance on something; you can only be trusted to keep it if you are already aware, at the moment of expressing it, of all the arguments and forces that will push you in another direction. Three months (of undoubtedly powerful lobbying) have been enough to sway Trump from "no more wars" to "yes let's start another one, possibly with Russia".
Except for the fact that the move indicates nothing less than complete and utter chaos in his stance vis-a-vis Russia. And that it remains to be seen how Putin will decide to "stand up" for his symbolic ally in response.
And see that Politico article linked to elsewhere in this thread: Putin responded to the missile strikes by suddenly discovering that he, too, had a problem with his ally using chemical weapons! He certainly didn't say that in 2013!
Try not to be so explicitly racist in your analyses. Kurds are an ethnic group of 40 million people with different ideologies, interests and goals. Saying "give it all to the Kurds" says more about your racism towards other regional ethnic groups (Arabs, Syriacs, Turks) than some grand understanding you have of the Middle East.
> I could envision partitioning the country along its existing ethnic lines
Nobody except casual MSM observers wants this racist, separatist outcome and anybody with any understanding of the country would know that the country doesn't have "ethnic lines" that you can just build a wall across and somehow produce mini-states that will be economically successful, productive and start working in harmony with their new neighbours.
As for the rest, the pro-Assad forces are mostly Alawites (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shabiha) and Christians (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_militias_in_Syria), organized along ethno-religious lines. Incorporating them into Lebanon, or creating a "coastal Syria" with a minimum of Sunnis in it (and probably under Russian tutelage, since the Christians are Orthodox and the Alawites have reason to see Russia as a protector) would allow them to live without either being tyrants or being tyrannized.
Neither does the PYD. Mainstream Kurdish nationalism involves Kurdish independence (which the PYD is opposed to) and are largely capitalist (see Iraq).
> As for the rest, the pro-Assad forces are mostly Alawites
Really? The overwhelming majority of Syrian soldiers are Sunni. Alawites are overrepresented in the Syrian Air Force, but underrepresented in the general military. Pro-government auxiliary forces like the Lebanese Hezbollah are certainly not Alawite, neither are the Iraqis and others that support the Syrian government.
> and Christians
"Christians" what? There are Christian Arabs, Kurds, Syriacs and Armenians. They're not a single group. Even between the Syriacs we see pro-government and anti-government divisions (Sutoro vs Sootoro).
> organized along ethno-religious lines
No, they're not.
I don't think the Syriacs in North East Syria want to be forcefully relocated to Lebanon or Coastal Syria, I think they want to stay at home. I also don't think ethnically cleansing Sunnis from Coastal Syria is any sort of move, let alone a justifiable one.
I'd like to continue this conversation but I'm afraid I'm going to withdraw myself here.
I agree with the "scum" part.
For the "step in", hmm ...? If are trying to civilize Assad and/or his enemies, then that looks hopeless.
If are trying to deter Assad from more use of ugly chemical weapons on babies, maybe that can work, a little, for a while.
If trying to replace Assad, then an early question has to be -- with whom that would be better? The replacement should be better, and in such situations that ain't nearly guaranteed.
I'm no expert, but it may be that Syria divides into people who (A) more or less like Assad, at least will let him get by with rigged elections without being really bitter about it, and (B) hate Assad and all the people in (A) and would eagerly torture and murder all of them by the most brutal methods they could implement. Yes, the people in (A) might be equally eager to murder all the people in (B).
That is, first-cut, we're talking a lot of people who still are back in essentially Medieval times, maybe as if they were still fighting over very limited water and grazing land, and still isolated from the lessons from the religious, etc. wars of Europe of the past 1000 years, e.g., separation of church and state, basic humanism, etc., lessons not well honored in Europe even as recently as Hitler.
Hitler was brutal, in Medieval terms, including with gas, likely also on children and babies. So, is it too surprising that maybe a lot of people in Syria are Medieval, brutal, inhumane, etc.?
To me, from about 1/4th the way around the world away, one of the big lessons needed in the Mideast is separation of church and state, and I can't believe that any significant separation will take place there for at least another, say, 200 years. E.g., apparently one of the main recruiting attractions of ISIS -- in Iraq, Syria, Libya, etc. -- is a closed, isolated, Medieval, brutal, sectarian dictatorship. So, that stuff still gets lots of people over there to vote with their feet, lives, etc.
Over there, maybe they were having wars and, there, killing babies, etc. going way back. Some of the situations and scenes in the movie Lawrence of Arabia, a side-show of WWI, seem to suggest so.
In such situations, there is an approach to peace, that of the grave.
I do suspect that with some well placed bombs from the US, it is possible to send a message that even the most dedicated sectarians can hear, the parties can understand the message, calm down for a while, sign a deal, get some strong geographical lines of separation, maybe monitored by the UN, and, then, live essentially in peace for some decades, say, until there is another ambitious, bloodthirsty, leader eager to take over territory and willing to exploit religion to do so.
I essentially agree with your reasoning. It's a very delicate situation, but Assad, Iran, and Russia have gotten away with too much. The US and its allies have to show them that their actions have consequences. You can't just use chemical weapons over and over again without repercussions.
As for the long term, it's very difficult to tell what will happen. The way I see it is dialogue is the only way forward. Both sides have to figure out an arrangement that ends up benefiting the Syrian people. Otherwise, this war is going to become irreversible, if it hasn't already..
Yup, they seem to believe that they have some strong interests in common. First cut, from the campaign and the terrorists attacks, the US is mostly interested in stopping terrorism, in particular just ending ISIS. For that, a guess so far is that Assad, Iran, and Russia see no real gain and a lot of pain in the back side from ISIS and will be eager enough to see the US, Turkey, Baghdad, if it is now not too close to Iran, and maybe even Assad kill off ISIS.
How far Assad, Iran, and Russia can get with a coalition for geography, power, and money I don't know; my guess is that once ISIS is dead, the US will have more important policy items than Assad, Iran, and Russia in the Mideast and will have friends in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, and Israel.
Just from a glance at a map, easy enough to understand why Russia might want a warm water port. E.g., the US has warm or even hot water ports all along both coasts and the Gulf of Mexico with all of those ports a lot of deep water away from adversaries.
There may be some neo-cons around who never want to pass up an opportunity for another foreign advanture and saw Trump's shooting 59 cruise missiles as a big day for neo-con goals -- here I believe that the neo-cons will be wrong.
I hope Trump still wants to stay the heck out of foreign adventures, be President of the US and not the world (his saying "God bless the world" alone is okay), stop Assad from using gas, kill off ISIS, organize an effort in the Mideast, with funding from the Saudis and Gulf states, for a refugee area, help draw new lines to keep the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds separated, get all that done quickly, and then just come home and concentrate on jobs, the wall, trade deals, replacing Obamacare, getting the economy going, e.g., fast enough to generate the needed tax revenue, energy independence, etc.
Trump has talked a lot about the $6 T or so we have spent in the Mideast, and I hope and believe that he won't spend even another $1 T there -- his big infrastructure program is supposed to be only $1 T. If we throw $1 T at a time over and over at the Mideast, after a while it adds up to real money we would have liked to have spent here.
> Both sides have to figure out an arrangement that ends up benefiting the Syrian people.
Kill off ISIS. Have a Sunni area cut from the current Syria and Iraq and get Assad, Baghdad, and Turkey to go along. Have a Kurdish area cut from Syria and Iraq, and tell the Turks that, no, we don't want a greater Kurdistan. Tell Assad he can rule half of Syria or none of it -- his choice.
Even the US has limits. There are only so many Tomahawks ready to go. 59+ is a significant reduction in that number. They won't do this again as I doubt they could mount a third such salvo. They need to keep a substantial number of missiles in reserve for taking out air defences in support of a broader air war or special forces operation. The next "message" will therefore come via manned aircraft. That's where things between the Russians and the US get tricky. There is only so much airspace over syria.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arleigh_Burke-class_destroyer
(among other ships capable of launching them)
Of course they aren't all deployed in the Middle East and won't each have 90 of the missiles ready to go, but 50 doesn't seem like a huge stretch of capabilities.
There are numerous attacks of more than 150 missiles and several thousand available (which I agree doesn't necessarily mean they are all ready for use):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile)#United_Stat...
I;m interested in how many ships actually fired. Whether one ship fires all/most of them, or whether the tasking was spread amongst the fleet, speaks to the potential timeline. If it all came from one ship, and that ship is now racing back to port to rearm, that says to me that they expect to do this again sooner rather than later as that would get the fleet back to full capacity more quickly than waiting for many ships to rotate out.
[1] https://news.usni.org/2017/04/06/breaking-u-s-destroyers-fir...
A civilized culture must abhor violence. But it must also be ready to use it when the alternative is to ignore the suffering of others.