> The tech necessary to replace front line service workers is not there. If it was we'd all be buying one ... what happens when ... some customer needs help in unexpected ways
History does tell us that sometimes the market will throw away jobs that are becoming inconvenient to society, even if that means doing without the services that class of worker provides, or receiving worse and less convenient services.
Consider household servants.
They used to be seen as necessary for middle and upper-class households, because professional households required staggering amounts of manual labor just to keep everyone fed and clothed.
Those jobs vanished, right around the time that clothes and dish-washing machines were invented. But it's interesting to look at why.
Clothes and dish-washing machines are, frankly, not as great as servants (my feeling 'icky' about having someone else wash my clothes aside). You have to do the work yourself, and accept more cognitive load. But they win on cost -- the costs of employing a servant went up, and eventually worse service was worth it for a simpler and cheaper self-serve solution.
Could something similar happen in service work?
Well, look at the Amazon store, and compare it to a current grocery store.
Now imagine a Starbucks with touchscreen-and-voice enabled ordering, no visible employees (maybe one employee, nominally a store manager, working the fleet of coffee machines behind the screens, and doing some light sweeping in the restaurant, etc) and a communal co-working space that more or less preserves the current experience, just minus the baristas.
We are already almost there. We have coffee vending machines. We have touch screen soda dispensers. Starbucks could wire in their mobile app to give customers a "redbox" coffee experience if they wanted to. I think it's part of their brand that a barista hand crafts your beverage rather than a machine do it, but who knows what their future direction will be.
Currently, companies that make people self-serve with touchscreens in restaurants or grocery stores are most commonly giving them a hostile (even hateful) user experience. But as voice UI starts to be more common, and you can marry visual and voice ...
For example, I went into an American fast food restaurant in Amsterdam once. Orders were made on a touch screen, you get a number, then someone at the counter hands you your order.
They still have kitchen staff, but instead of having 5+ humans taking orders you have 5+ kiosks and one person calling numbers.
Then imagine that the notion that your coffee is "crafted" by a "barista"[1] is part of the brand that distinguishes their coffee from my reasonably adequate free office coffee machine, and the barista costs two cups of coffee and a muffin per hour, and makes a point of asking everyone in line if they'd like anything else with that, and suddenly the savings from touchscreen and voice enabled ordering look less massive.
Now that's a fashion that could change, just like most rich people who could comfortably afford someone to polish their fireplaces and silverware every morning and doff their cap to guests nowadays would think such an idea unthinkably pretentious rather than the hallmark of a respectable house, and many of them have learned to actually enjoy cooking. After all, some people actually prefer impersonal service from a kiosk when buying tickets or packed food these days; more if it offers a better queuing system. But the economics are more complex than simple staff minimisation, otherwise the Automat would have killed the fast food industry rather than vice versa. Let's face it, 90% of these venues providing service jobs wouldn't exist if people were a little more willing to sacrifice perceived food quality/image/freshness for cheaper food and beverages
[1]Yes, of course it's a teenager pressing a button. But brand image is silly like that.
It will be a while before UX and polish of any automated (or mostly hands-off) storefront could compete favorably with our current servant-based systems.
But even in the case of ambitious examples, I think we'll get there. There are beloved brands that exist mostly as apps, which compete successfully with human-staffed storefronts. Unstaffed or mostly-automated physical storefronts haven't proven they can offer a quality experience yet when it comes to food and drink, but that could change; it's always possible that robotic attempts to date are the equivalent of hand-cranked washing machines.
Take supermarkets. What used to be 10 checkout assistants serving 30 customers per hour each for a total throughput of 300 customers per hour, can now become 20 self checkout machines serving 15 customers per hour each, with 2 retrained checkout assistants to oversee 10 machines each and handle the edge cases. Same overall throughput. Each individual customers experience gets slightly worse (perhaps, although maybe the longer checkout time is offset by shorter queues?), but throughput stays the same, and staffing is reduced significantly. I'm seeing this right now in every large supermarket, and even a lot of smaller corner shop type ones.
There's a whole range of service jobs that are vulnerable to this kind of 80% efficiency improvement that will drastically reduce the levels of staff needed. Restaurant wait staff can be 80% replaced by self ordering via app or tablet. Bar staff, coffee shop staff (you can already preorder Starbucks and pay via the app, the human just makes the drinks), fast food staff (ever seen an express lane), all the same, a machine could make each staff member able to handle many times more customers but automating only the most repetitive parts leaving the human to just handle the edge cases.
They aren't talking about replacing all workers, just some of them. "The $35,000 robot can boost the number of items picked by a worker by 200 percent to 500 percent, Welty said, and six employees can handle work normally done by 20 to 25."
Personally, I'd probably go out of my way to avoid a chain with self-service given the option.
Oddly, it's the big box home improvement stores that are the biggest self-service retail users around where I live. Even though many items you buy there are at equally bad for self-service as grocery stores.
That's kinda my point. The user experience is actually worse for many users. And it certainly doesn't handle all edge cases. It handles one specific case (of a customer with just a small number of small barcoded items) kind of acceptably, but slower than a human would.
But it's still being used, and replacing staff by reducing the overall number of staff required despite not handling all situations very well at all.
And this is the same mistake people make all the time when thinking about job automation. They say things like "I'm OK, my job could never be automated because a robot couldn't handle all the complex tasks I do like handling a customer complaint" but what they forget is that customer complaints is only 2% of their job. 80% is repetitive tasks that can be automated. So yeah, OK, one robot won't replace one person. But 10 robots and 1 person can replace 5 people. So now you have to reapply for your new job of robot supervisor/edge case handler, alongside your 4 other colleagues. And only one of you is going to get that job.
Personally, I welcome this, but it has to go hand in hand with some sort of universal income. We need to give everyone the chance to pick the job they /want/ to do, rather than the job they feel, economically, they have to do.
Researcher with masters degree on 21k/year? You could easily get double that from a programming job with a few years of experience if you have the aptitude.
I'd much rather receive a universal income, while working on things that I feel make a difference, rather than what I have to do to feed my family.
- Warren Bennis
Actually, I think that's something that would be relatively easily to automate. I've seen computerized ordering kiosks in European fast food restaurants. If you already have the robot, all you'd need to do is add a custom-item builder to the ordering interface. If the customer has a loyalty card or account, they could built it offline and save the item to their account for later retrieval.
Assembling a liquid product seems like it'd be much easier to automate than cooking or general cleaning tasks. Overall, though, your point still stands.
Faced with a waiter or a person behind a counter, there's no way I'd order glass of a lime-and-raspberry half-sugar half-diet cola, for a number of reasons: I'm not going to bother looking through a menu to see what's available; it's not explicitly on the menu, and I don't know how the system behind the counter works, or how much extra might be charged for such an odd order; I don't want to be "That Guy".
If I want something half-way between a macchiato and a cappuccino, but with the coffee poured on top of the milk, then I'd rather do that by pressing buttons on a machine, than ask a server who relays it to a coffee wallah who then looks quizzically at the instructions and asks the server for clarification who then passes the question on to me...
This is just my dumb opinion, and I dont mind risking looking like that guy to share it.