Comment by bjd2385 | Hacker News Reader

Comment by bjd2385 | Hacker News Reader

> I don’t see us turning the workforce situation around unless we somehow manage to transform our negative imagery about immigrants and start to aggressively seek out productive young, educated immigrants from around the world.

He lost me primarily at this point. From my perspective this makes no sense at all.

I work grueling 12 hour shifts on an assembly line. My fingerprints have worn off some of my fingertips I work so hard; cuts and scrapes all over my hands and arms from handling product and adjusting machines all day. The other day I stood up too soon while ducking under a belt and a sharp edge put a deep gash in my back.

Yet, I have a 2 year degree in mathematics and spend every minute not on the job programming, reading and learning. There is no other opportunity in Western NY for anyone with an associates degree.

I can't afford to commute an hour to work, and I have a broken down vehicle I can't afford to fix because I'm paying tens of thousands of dollars in student loans back for a worthless degree. I live with my parents, who themselves can't get full time jobs (I surmise age discrimination is the biggest factor) with graduate degrees.

America is not what it's made out to be. Neither is this ``education'' that's hyped up in the media and online. While I was growing up my parents couldn't make ends meet while they were both working. Now, as a full time worker, I see that I definitely cannot make enough to live on my own, a single white male.

Obviously, then, the answer is to accept more immigrants, so there's more competition for the dwindling number of jobs mentioned in this article (due to technology...).

> ... the gains in average education and health of the workforce over the last 50 years are unlikely to be repeated ...

Well no-shit sherlock.

People are pitched great promises by institutions and universities, only to find out that there's no job for them after 4 years of their lives and $100,000 of debt have been spent. Basically, they bought another (probably more expensive) house when they can barely afford the one they have. Further, there's likely high competition for anything outside of the medical field.

And good luck getting a job in IT unless you know someone (c.f. the latest SO survey).

My sympathy. I feel I worked somewhat hard to get through studies and into work but this is way worse.

I wish you all the best in either getting promoted at work (some jobs actually do) or getting an IT position at another company.

Possibly inspirational for some of you guys: at one point me and a couple of other guys in the IT department where I worked found out the girl who cleaned the floor had an IT degree from Poland an bugged our boss until he gave her a chance. She was good, got a permanent position. (She stayed there for a while, later married and moved across the country and continued to work in IT as a sysadmin.) My point is to be nice and dont give up. I have worked my way up from farm hand through conscription and a few months of construction work as well as cleaning to now being on my way from one Java position to the next. Of course I admit this us probably easier here in Europe but never ever give up.

That's a wonderful story. I'm going to think about that one for sure.

Yes, thanks for sharing this with us.

So one of the explanations I've recently read covered amount of jobs lost to immigrants. And it seems that it's not that high, or even negative.

the theory for increasing the work force is that - the new workers don't displace jobs as much as they also create them.

So those new workers have to eat, sleep and wear clothes.

All of which are needs that have to be met, and so jobs and demand which is also created.

Im guessing, The question is which jobs are taken, and at what wage.

Are _you_ one of those workers who _has_ to eat, sleep and wear clothes? Do you also have kids? And a need for housing? And a spouse? And the probability that any one of you could get sick at any moment, or the fact that government takes 25% of your $30,000 every year? What if you or your spouse gets laid off because your jobs are being sent to Mexico?

(I'm not making this last point up by the way. I was warned that if we didn't become more efficient our jobs would be sent to Mexico.)

I'm not trying to be irrational here. I'm just saying that you're thinking at the margin about people's lives, and over time margins get eroded, then eroded some more, then a little more... hence the numbers this person is highlighting.

And, over the course of nearly a century, we see it has dramatic effects.

EDIT: I might also make the point that women entering the workforce definitely, by the looks of these numbers, didn't drive a vast expansion in the number of jobs. Rather, it displaced many men who _used_ to have those jobs, and proved its inflexibility at the same time.

>I might also make the point that women entering the workforce definitely, by the looks of these numbers, didn't drive a vast expansion in the number of jobs. Rather, it displaced many men who _used_ to have those jobs, and proved its inflexibility at the same time

This is a completely different thing, women entering the workforce did not involve new people entering the consumer market. Immigrants do.

I disagree. Women taking a job who formerly did not have one isn't much different than an immigrant moving to the United States and taking that job. While I agree the latter involves adding an additional 'consumer' to the market (how everyone seems to refer to a US Citizen these days), they could just as well have 'consumed' outside of the US, and I doubt they would become an overwhelmingly positive contribution to demand in the short term.

Though globalization is a definite trend, so much of a persons money is spent on the basics of food and housing, where the money spent is usually higher in the US and more of it will stay local. As these things still need local jobs, and more of those jobs requires more middle class jobs to care for their needs.

And I mean no offense here, they would need to spend more on housing than yourself in the short term, making them a net positive relative to yourself almost immediately.

Hey, I'm not saying there isnt an issue.

But every time I try and take a stab at this, theres lots and lots of information that pulls in many different directions, and sans a full time economist gig, I don't think this parseable by me (and I've given enough time to it).

So, the theory I mentioned, still holds true - even if someones jobs on the margin are lost.

And at the same time, that loss also holds true, no matter what those theories say.

"the new workers don't displace jobs as much as they also create them."

I doubt immigrants raise wages. They increase the supply of local labor without commensurately increasing local demand (immigrants habitually save and/or remit their disposable income, spending as little as possible to get by).

>immigrants habitually save and/or remit their disposable income, spending as little as possible to get by

Source? As it seems like a massive generalization that doesn't reflect what I see from my immigrant neighbors.

Migrants living in the US exported $133bn in remittances in 2015.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/migrants-sent-half-a-...

Buying or building a house is always going to have a floor value, because housing norms and restrictions are followed.

> And good luck getting a job in IT unless you know someone (c.f. the latest SO survey).

What survey?

https://stackoverflow.com/insights/survey/2017#work-how-did-...

This survey is for software developers. Not IT positions. And, it only shows a plurality (26%) of hiring via network connections. And on top of that, it's a survey of Stack Overflow readers...so if you're presuming it is representative of the labor market at large, I suggest you have not received adequate education in critical thinking.

Where in the world do people need education on critical thought? How do you even educate for that? I've always thought of critical thought as a natural instinct with close ties to curiosity and survival.

Unless you are trying to insult the person you are replying to.

In college I've had a discipline¹ in critical thinking (I studied Software Engineering in Portugal). We analyzed arguments in texts presented by the teacher and written by each other. It was mostly learning by doing, and seeing others doing.

¹Is this the right word? I'm struggling to find the right translation.

Was it really necessary? I mean, couldn't you construct structured criticisms before you attended the lecture? I'm pretty sure you could.

Sure, and I could program too, but the course was still useful. Critical thinking is a skill, and I think there's value in training it in a methodical way and with some guidance.

Sure icebraining could.

Now icebraining can even better.

Honestly, if the only thing you're going to dispute me on is my very last point (which had basically nothing to do with the overall theme of my reply), I couldn't care less what your argument is.

Moreover, I doubt you're the kind of person who's had to work for anything in your life.

That survey shows that ~27% got in through some sort of connection, but the remaining ~73% didn't. So roughly 3/4 of those surveyed didn't use connections to land gigs.

Am I missing something here?

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