Aside from their usefulness in making hiring decisions, as a manager, it has been great for jump-starting my relationship with my new hires with context on how they have worked in the past. That has been really helpful.
I agree with you that references have some limitations. We do, of course, expect that applicants will cherry-pick their references to make themselves shine. Yet, I typically get very candid feedback from the reference providers. I think most people simply aren't built to straight-up lie for someone else, even if they are a friend. References are typically someone in some level of authority someplace else, and they put their word on the line. Most people seem to take that seriously.
Another limitation is that people often can't use their current boss as a reference, and for people on an upward career trajectory, that may exclude someone who is capable of talking about the applicant's greatest career achievements. This was the case for me when I applied to my current role.
Lastly, we have to keep in mind that any single reference is colored by the biases and personality of its provider. And some applicants simply have access to better referrers than others for reasons out of their control. All we can do is make judgment calls when it comes to these things.
Also, I'll note that three of the above employees were sourced via referral from either other employees or friends of execs.
Now, it is easier to influence new professionals than changing habits of seasoned professionals.
I'll echo the sibling post for inexperienced candidates. References from jobs in other careers also work. But to be honest, if someone can't find anyone to speak in-depth about their achievements and teamwork, they are going to have a really tough time passing the bar to get hired. We don't generally do work samples of any kind, but I'd probably have to make an exception in that case, to get some kind of picture for how they work.
We've certainly had a couple people not work out on our engineering team. But I don't think we've ever hired a total dud or a toxic person.
It's interesting that you mention internal referrals, because I think that can be a major source of bias. People feel obligated to put in a good word for their friend, and if I hold the referrer in high personal regard, my natural skepticism of them as a reference diminishes. I feel referrers should say their (small) piece at the beginning, but from that point onward, the hiring process needs to be independent of their influence.