Forty percent of the Bay Area wants to leave, says new poll | Hacker News Reader

Forty percent of the Bay Area wants to leave, says new poll

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I saw this the other day -- seems like it's not just the Bay Area, though :)

Nearly half of Illinois residents want to leave the state, survey finds:

http://www.bizjournals.com/chicago/news/2016/10/11/nearly-ha...

Here’s Why 41% of Millennials want to leave the U.S:

https://transferwise.com/us/blog/why-41-percent-millenials-w...

I think you have to enable js on that static blog post to read, so if anyone cares to summarize...

In short, 40-50% of people want to leave their current situation, but can't really.

There was a similar trend in the first half of the 20th century, IIRC, because of the similar economic situation.

And while I have nothing in particular against the Bay Area, I would encourage people to think very deeply about the very awesome and simple alternatives to living in the Bay:

Why would you want to live in a crowded, VERY expensive, a bit smoggy, overly regulated city with a long daily commute-

when you could live in a cheaper, less crowded, friendlier city (or country) with no commute (work online if possible), less smog, etc?

It may seem like a pipedream, but it really is possible with some planning, a bit of luck, and persistent motivation.

I made the move from Boston to Singapore with no job or long term visa. It worked out just fine. I get sun every day, there's no crime, and since I don't live downtown, my expenses are pennies!

I mean, I like the bay area, but I could like other areas too. I'm stuck here because both my family and my wife's are here.

>Why would you want to live in a crowded, VERY expensive, a bit smoggy, overly regulated city with a long daily commute-

$$$

Sure, cash is important. I would argue that some small percentage of people are required to be in the Bay Area for years before they receive a massively lucrative multi million dollar payout from their company stock or what have you.

But the majority of most other people working in the Bay can't fit that description, right? Surely their skills are transferable to online jobs or other more liveable cities?

The total NET earnings are probably identical (again excluding the massively wealthy income earners in the Bay).

And then when you factor in the lack of smog, stress, sedentary life that the Bay brings...?

That first group (the soon-to-be-rich tech workers) require literally cities to support them. They have spouses and children and families too, who all play a role.

I'm not sure you've thought this through. Where does the money in the Bay Area come from?

During the gold rush, someone needed to sell the prospectors equipment, entertainment, etc.

Once you account for cost of living you don't make all the much less in somewhere like, say, Boston. And Boston has suburbs that you can actually commute from. The traffic is awful but not California awful.

The weather and cost situation isn't that much better in Boston, but it is definitely more commutable than SF.

Personally I would eschew megalopolises all together!

I think this will vary for a lot of people, but I live in the outer sunset area in San Francisco where there is little traffic, free parking, numerous uncrowded parks, and I live in a house with a yard instead of an apartment. It takes me ~30 minutes to get downtown for work, door to door, using public transportation. Oh - and there's almost no crime here.

Personally I enjoy this part of the city. It seems better in most ways and it's far cheaper. I would hate living downtown as I have a large dog.

I admittedly was incredibly lucky in finding this place (moving to a city with a large dog reduces your options by an order of magnitude), but it's been great. It seems most of my friends have tiny apartments and numerous roommates, and my girlfriend and I honestly have more space than we know what to do with - and we (usually) pay less money than them.

I do miss snow though.

Isn't life in Singapore _more_ expensive than the Bay area?

If you attempt to recreate the most particularly American aspects of life, namely car ownership, home ownership, dining out, purchasing clothing, yes, you will pay out the nose. Singapore's government runs a budget surplus off of consumption tax.

And if you take illegal drugs, you'll pay with your life!

But if you live in an HDB outside of the downtown area, commute by bike foot or metro, cook in or eat hawker center, avoid consumerism, etc. Boy will you be rich and happy on this low tax, nice weather little island.

All about personal goals :)

I've always liked the thought of Singapore and I'm not really attached to owning a car. Add to that the interesting tax system, and I could be sold.

That all said, could you disclose how much you're spending per month? How much on rent, for example? It seems property prices are insane (from the basic research I've done), hence my concern.

Happily, pal! It'll be a mix of what I've learned personally and what I've heard.

Forgoing a car will save you 100s of thousands USD. No point in owning one unless you are a banker or you have elderly family to take around who wouldn't do well in crowded transport.

I arranged to live with friends who rent an HDB (decently nice publicly constructed condos that are privately owned by Singaporeans). The property is probably worth 130k to 170k USD. Taxes per year are a few K on it I imagine. I pay $500 USD to rent. Like I said, it's pretty much dirt cheap for how nice it is. Only 45 mins from downtown. It's in the Sembawang/Yishun area. People joke that SG gov't should build a wall to keep us weirdos out of downtown/Sentosa :)

I have yet to go to a country that doesn't have at least one reasonable living situation under 1k a month. Even Switzerland!

Right, but if you live with roommates (assuming single no kids as well), don't own a car, and are willing to commute 45 min by public transportation, you can live in any HCOL (high cost of living) city in the world, including SF/BayArea. And you originally claimed SF was overly regulated, so I'm not sure how that compares to Singapore. Every location has its ups and downs, and those will affect each person differently, depending on their situation. That said, I do support your original intent of encouraging people to find alternative lifestyles and locations and not get stuck in the rat race.

And how'd you end up getting the long term visa with no job? (And please don't advise people to immigrate illegally to a country)

I wouldn't advise illegally immigrating to Singapore, because they probably wouldn't let you back in if they found out :)

For me specifically, I applied to a program for young professionals to intern in Singapore, to see how they like it and see if an employer will offer a work visa for in demand positions.

You could also come here by starting a company with a relatively low amount of capital/revenue/employee count requirement.

Additionally, they don't seem too too strict about visa runs to Indonesia, Thailand, etc. It isn't a long term strategy though and doesn't give you the right to a CPF or legal work in the country, or medical insurance (though there are fine clinics here compared to the US).

Of course you can also marry a Singaporean. You'll likely receive a Permanent Residency, which in my opinion is better than citizenship. Unless you are Malay. Then you might be one of the 35,000 ethnic Malaysians who married a Singaporean and were denied a PR anyway for (political!) reasons.

I like Singapore too, but it's also one of the densest cities in the world, with the highest cost of living. In fact, I don't think even Singaporeans would describe their city as being "cheaper, less crowded and friendlier."

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2017/03/29/singapore-retain...

No worries, thanks for the article!

I would say that if you are trying to recreate an American lifestyle with a car, house, designer shopping, dining out, etc. Yes, Singapore is the most expensive city in the world.

But there is extremely little crime here (to the point where Singaporeans are a bit lacking in caution like a galapagos iguana in my opinion).

HDBs are absurdly cheap for how nice they are. I pay $500 a month to live here.

And while the downtown core and Tampines are very crowded, traffic is decently efficient during a variety of commuting methods.

And my bike rides through Lim Chu Kang are practically deserted :)

I too had heard from a friend working there that Singapore was somewhat expensive. Are the pay levels commensurate with costs, for software people?

Also: How long have you been living there, and have you experienced that yearly smoke from burning of forests in Malaysia and Indonesia? My friend said that is an issue, and I've read about that in other places too, also that it happens in Chiang Mai, Thailand and nearby areas too.

How do you handle it, if it is an issue?

The pay is actually shockingly all over the place, in my opinion. The reason for this is that income tax is virtually non existent, so thats 30% less that they need to pay you compared to the US.

Then when you factor in the CPF, which is a mandatory contribution to a retirement fund that employers make for their employees, that's another 10% pay cut or so off the typical market rate.

Then there is a local talent pool for ~enterprise technology~ (c++ and java, mysql) that are quite underpaid.

Mobile dev jobs pay well but there isn't much equity to go around.

The only people making real money here are the bankers, lawyers, and doctors. Tech is still a side show in my opinion. Think New York in the 80s.

Still you will be just fine if you live like "us locals", avoiding the obvious scams that are reproducing Western life here, like Marina Bay Sands, Sentosa, LV, buying a Mercedes :)

The smog is a pretty big problem 1 month out of the year! It's wise to wear a mask and stay indoors, in my opinion.

I've researched the problem- it's a political one that probably won't be solved. Indonesians have the right land and climate for growing palm, which is used in palm oil soap from Dove, which Westerners buy mindlessly.

The farmers burn their land in a type of old school crop rotation, and a bunch of Singaporean and Indonesian companies pay them for their crop. So there is pretty strong demand and multiple levels.

I think it's a nuissance but not the end of the world. It's probably not even as serious as say, nuclear problems in Japan, smog in LA, seasonal depression in Boston and Seattle. It's just that it's quirky and in the news.

When I moved here, I realized how many things were relentlessly sensationalized in the American news by Americans so that they would feel better about living in America with all of its interestingly American problems :)

Thanks for the detailed reply.

More dangerous than any nuclear problems in Japan probably. But yes, probably on par with the others you mentioned. Varies a bit from year to year.

Smog came over about once a year for a week when I was living in Singapore.

Pay can be good for programmers. I got 140k SGDP/year (and paid 5% income tax on average on it). And while I make more than that now, it's a perfectly adequate salary---even for living in the city centre.

Good to know, thanks. I do remember my friend saying that income tax in SG was low, but 5% seems quite low, which is good.

My marginal rate was 15%---which is also the top rate. But I've only just hit that bracket, so my average was still a 5% total.

The only other significant tax to pay is 7% VAT. Unless you want to own a car. That's expensive, and fortunately unnecessary.

Cost of living in term of pre-tax dollars in Singapore ain't too bad. (At least not as bad as post-tax comparisons make it look.)

It's actually not one of the densest cities. Look at the statistics.

> I have nothing in particular against the Bay Area

Really, because this seems pretty particular:

> Why would you want to live in a crowded, VERY expensive, a bit smoggy, overly regulated city with a long daily commute-

If I were to specify further, I don't mean to insult anyone who lives in the Bay Area and is enjoying it. These problems are common across many cities.

But I would say, to think there are no profitable and enjoyable alternatives to the Bay would be incorrect!

Because even an offhand mention that I'm thinking of considering to ponder changing jobs results in an avalanche of contact.

One man's answers to your question:

> Why would you want to live in a crowded, VERY expensive, a bit smoggy, overly regulated city with a long daily commute

I like people, and I like living in dense areas. I find it inspiring. Going home to Georgia and looking out my window to see nothing but trees is peaceful for a while, but loneliness and mild existential dread (if such a thing can be mild) start to set in before long.

SF's high density also makes it a destination for all sorts of shows, concerts, festivals, events, stores and shops, restaurants, etc. that wouldn't bother going to other places.

It's expensive because lots of people want to live here, because some of the most exciting stuff in the world is going on here. Not only do I want to be a part of that exciting stuff, but I also want to be around all the smart people who flock here to work on it. The density helps with this. Thousands of inspirational people are always just a few blocks away. I routinely meet awesome people online who I can then grab coffee with.

Provided you're doing the "right" job in the "right" industry, the companies here pay well enough to afford the cost of living. And they often throw in excellent perks like free lunches/dinners/snacks. Obviously this doesn't totally offset the costs, however. It sucks that a more diverse group of people can't afford to live here comfortably, including many of my friends. But it's not like I could convince them all to move to <insert cheap location here>, either.

The commute is negligible for those who work in the city. You can walk to pretty much any office in 10-60 minutes, and listen to an audio book on the way. Or take a Lyft/Uber/cab. Or, often, work from home. I really enjoy the exercise, scenery, and reading time that walking provides.

I can respect your point of view! I am glad it is working out and is enjoyable and profitable for you.

Personally I feel that some of the upsides you've listed can be accomplished virtually. But it's all good! To each their ultimate happiness.

Well, I moved from Boston to the East Bay and love it here. My answer would be biased because I would live here even if tech was barely here.

To me, the culture is incredible. I work from home so I barely have to worry about a commute. I go outdoors everyday and its often sunny. There's ample parks and even hiking trails near me, albeit being close to a city. I can't understand the appeal of living in San Francisco - too dense for my taste. But some of us find it worth it!

I find this post very entertaining for a number of reasons.

One of the main reasons is the idea that Singapore is somehow less crowded, despite, as a country (not just the urban core), having a population density that is about 50% higher than the city of Boston (and, also higher than the city of SF - that's the city, not the metro).

My answers are elsewhere in this thread, but Yishun/Lim Chu Kang's greenspace and weather will forever be infinitely preferable to Boston in my mind. And it's cheaper!!

Sure! I'm glad you love where you live.

I just assumed you were going to suggest a city that is actually less crowded, and substantially cheaper (Singapore being relatively similar to Boston in terms of cost of living, <10%).

Why would I live in SF? Culture and Opportunities.

Quite frankly, for software, there's no other place like Silicon Valley in the world. Everywhere else is a pale imitation.

Let's not pussyfoot around this. The reason why cheap places are cheap are because no one wants to live there. It's either crappy weather, or the lack of economic or cultural opportunities. Very few people move because of "burdensome regulation" or marginal tax rates. If they did, it would be California advertising people to move to their state in Indianapolis, instead of Indiana advertising on the 101.

Whenever I go back home to the Midwest I'm always struck by not just how little is there, but how much has left since my last visit. It's pretty much just corn fields and meth labs these days. Checking out some job boards, there's just very little demand for my specialization. Sure you can work remote, and bring in your Silicon Valley money and live like a king, but at the end of the day, you're still surrounded by corn fields and meth labs.

If you like moving to Singapore, that's great, but the idea that Singapore is less regulated and has less smog is laughable. Smog of this level[0] just doesn't happen anywhere in the United States, and I can buy chewing gum.

[0] http://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2016/08/26/environment/sing...

Haha, I enjoyed your response! Corn fields and meth labs! I like open spaces and less people, so corn fields are ok. Meth heads are alright if they keep to themselves, which they usually don't :)

But when I read what you wrote, I am reminded of how I once felt about the world- paralysis by analysis.

We are all pretty smart here, so digging for info and analyzing it becomes natural. The midwest looks like a nightmare on paper, and yet plenty of people prefer it. Those same people probably look at SF on paper and can find all sorts of reasons they'd hate it.

Some places are obviously truly tough, like Somalia or Venezuela now. But mostly these details among cities can only be truly gauged once you get a feel for the area. Kyiv Ukraine and Lviv Ukraine feel very different despite similar statistics.

As for the Indonesian smog, yes, that is a big problem for 1 month a year that won't be resolved until Westerners stop buying palm oil soap sourced from Indonesian farmers. But the air is quite good 11 months out of the year, compared to constant car smog in other cities that usually isn't sensationalized or in the news.

As for the gum, you can buy it here, it's just that the local state-legitimized bureaucratic mafia has some rules against importing or selling it. You can find it easily here I think.

In Singapore you should probably be more concerned with avoiding quirky but obvious crimes like graffiti, aggresive political speech, drugs. Those are dealt with through literal ass whoopings and hangings.

It's a problem I'd like changed sure, but in the US it would be nice if cops didn't shoot, detain, or extort you before your speeding ticket trial :)

> there's no crime, [...]

Remember: low crime doesn't mean no crime.

Singapore is great. Used to live there, too.

Reminds me of this Onion article from years back: http://www.theonion.com/article/84-million-new-yorkers-sudde...

>With audible murmurs of "This is no way to live," "What the hell am I doing here—I hate it here," and "Fuck this place. Fuck this horrible place," all 8.4 million citizens in each of the five boroughs packed up their belongings and told reporters they would rather blow their brains out with a shotgun than spend another waking moment in this festering cesspool of filth and scum and sadness.

Nicely summed up by a coworker: "I just turned 30 and I still live in a dining room."

I posted this because we decided to move.

The reason is very simple: our kid got into bad middle school on the other side of the town, we do not have money for private, so we are moving out....

I'm concerned about this too. Do you mind sharing which town you were in?

I used to tell people to move to Toronto instead. I don't anymore. There's a housing bubble, cost of living is rising, and tech salaries are up, but not enough.

If my condo hits a valuation high enough (ie- the bubble doesn't pop for another two years) my wife and I plan to sell and get the hell out of here.

Yeah the housing market really needs to cool off, it's getting pretty concerning.

(Which is why I rent.)

"considering leaving in the next few years" as stated in the poll is not the "want to leave" used for the headline (and even further from the "likely to leave" needed to justify the claim of a likely exodus.)

They should move to Silicon Slopes (Utah) -- One of the largest and fastest growing tech sectors, minutes from Ski Resorts galore, tons of land to expand. We have tons of 1Gig fiber providers... AND WE can definitely use a lot more progressive-leaning people in this state, to shake up the political landscape a bit.

I'm always slightly worried as an atheist minority (brown) of considering Utah. I come from Canada and never really see racial tensions like there are in the US. Would you say it's not as big of a deal as the media makes it out to be?

1GB fiber providers is hella enticing.

I think it's possible utah could move in next 40-50 years from mormon stronghold to atheist/agnostic one actually. -- There's a lot of people leaving the church... because of the CES Letter, and recent church political movements. -- 80% of ex-mormons end up agnostic or atheistic--because they've believed in mormonism as being the 'one true church' or a restored version of christianity and that ALL other sects are wrong, so if your restored christianity is wrong, so too must christianity as a whole be wrong..

Out of interest, for those who have been in the Bay Area for a while, when was the best time to live there?

2006-2010. 2008/2009 was great - everything was super cheap, and no traffic.

Mid 60s, clearly.

Had to double-check that this wasn't dated April 1.

In other news, 60% wants other 40% to leave :)

I should send the article for every Bay Area tech recruiter that asks me if I am willing to relocate to the Bay Area.

How many people need to leave the area before the companies themselves follow due to lack of workers?

They will never lack workers, but maybe a certain type of worker.

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